This Football Blog

Before I started looking at this weekend’s matchups, I had this notion that the 2012 divisional round would put to the test the notion that defense wins in the post-season. You know, because three of the four games feature defensively oriented teams squaring off against offensively oriented teams (with the Houston-Baltimore shaping up to be a struggle between two great defensive squads). I’ve rethought that. Sure, we’ll get a look at the D vs. O thing in San Francisco. But I’m not sure that’s what’s on tap in Green Bay or New England. I think one of those games is a good bit more interesting, and the other a good bit less, than simple D vs. O.

Let’s just get to what not to expect.

New Orleans (-3.5) at San Francisco
Here’s your battle of the unbalanced. The Niners are one of the best defensive squads in the league. The 14.3 points per game they allowed over the regular season were second only to the Steelers’ 14.2. And, not surprisingly, they were even stronger at home, allowing just 9.7 points per game (though it bears noting that three of their home games were against weak NFC West opponents; and that the Cowboys and Giants managed to hang 27 and 20 respectively in their visits to San Francisco). And while the 49ers offense is at least a little better than many believe, it’s clearly not operating on the same level as the Saints O, which has been one of the best in the league all season and that has come blazing out of the regular season and into the playoffs. The New Orleans defense is like the New England and Green Bay Ds: Not as bad as they’re made out to be (in reality solidly middle of the pack) but by no means the strength of the squad. So what happens when the all-O Saints and the all-D Niners clash? The consensus is that if there’s something that gives the Niners a chance to pull off the upset here it’s home field. San Fran, as noted has been crazy tough at home. And the Saints have been inconsistent on the road. The Saints also are a team that relies on speed, and playing on grass in San Francisco isn’t going to allow them to operate at their highest levels. I’m not prepared to discount either of those factors. But I think if I were looking for a reason to think the Niners will win this game, I’d look, as I often do, at takeaway-giveaway differential. And there San Francisco’s advantage is significant. The 49ers are a league-best +28 on the strength of 38 takeaways (23 picks, 15 fumble recoveries) and, perhaps more important, just 10 giveaways (five of each). The Saints are a -3. They’re not the worst -3 in football — they’re not giving the ball away all over the place, but they almost never take it away (a stark contrast to the Saints team that won Super Bowl XLIV) — but it’s notable that Drew Brees threw three picks in the last two games of the regular season (though he had none in the wild card round win over Detroit). If turnovers prove to be the difference in this game, you can count on San Francisco being the team that comes out ahead. All that said, I just can’t pick the 49ers. The Saints are too hot and too experienced to lose this game to a young Niners team that arguably overachieved to secure the two seed. I think this one goes down to the wire, but I think it’s New Orleans that comes up with the big play that makes the difference. Trailing by three late, they score with seconds remaining to come out ahead 27-23.

Denver (+13.5) at New England
So here’s one of those games that supposed to be about offense vs. defense but isn’t. How’s that? Well, it’s not because the Patriots are a balanced squad. As noted above, the New England defense, like the Green Bay and New Orleans Ds, is better than fans have been led to believe. But it’s better only in the sense that it’s not awful. The Pats D is OK, middle of the road, just good enough to contribute to wins. A few times over the course of the season, in fact, the Patriots D actually sparked victories. Mostly what the New England defense does, though, is give up fewer points than the high-powered offense puts up. That’s not heavy lifting. The reason this game isn’t about defense vs. offense is that the Broncos D isn’t ultimately that much of a factor. Yes, D is the better part of Denver’s game. Defining beliefs of the cult of Tim Tebow notwithstanding, when the Broncos won this season, it was usually because their D carried them. Tebow’s vaunted fourth quarter comebacks were made possible by the Denver D clamping down on opponents and keeping the team in games. And even then, the Broncos were an 8-8 team. They were a team that finished the season with a three-game losing streak, which started with a 41-23 home loss to the Patriots in week 15. They backed into the playoffs. And through their 8-8 season, the Broncos gave up an average of 24.4 points per game. That is, the “good” defense in this game allowed three more points per game this season than the “bad” defense. That would at least seem to call into question the way defenses are evaluated. Of course, if you’ve watched their games, you know the Broncos do have a good defense. It’s just that it’s a defense that’s typically left on the field for most of the first three quarters of games by an awful offense. And I don’t think the offense playing here is different from the offense we saw all season, no matter what they were able to accomplish last week against a Steelers squad that went into Denver banged up, got more banged up as the game went on, appeared shocked that the Broncos had actually come to play and failed to make adjustments based on what was happening on the field. The shortcomings of Denver’s offense will be the difference here. If you’re going to beat New England in Foxborough, you’re going to have to be able to put up a lot of points. You’re going to have to start scoring early and keep scoring until the fourth quarter. And I simply don’t believe Denver’s offense is up to the task. I’ve seen the Patriots start slow often enough this season that I expect this game to be close through the first half. Denver may even have a lead early on. But in the end, I think the Pats put up 35 or more points. And I don’t think the Broncos can manage 36. In fact, I’m not sure they can get to much more than 20, maybe 23. So I’ll take New England and, nervous as it makes me to surrender two touchdowns in a playoff game, I’m going to give the points. Patriots win 38-21.

Houston (+7.5) at Baltimore
This one’s about defense vs. defense, but what’s odd is that I expect it to be decided by offense. Or, rather, lack of offense. That is to say, one of the Os in this game is going to find a way to overcome the opposing D at least enough to put 13-17 points on the board. That’s not much, but it’s about what you can expect these almost identical defenses to allow. The other offense is going to sputter — or, rather, it’s going to be suffocated. And I think you have to believe the offense that fails to get off the ground is going to be one that’s on the road and that hinges on the play of an undrafted free agent rookie quarterback. I think T.J. Yates has played incredibly well since taking over as starter in week 13. He should be proud of himself. And the Texans should be psyched going forward to know that they’ve got a backup quarterback who’s more than capable of winning games. But there are reasons Yates was a third stringer well into this season, and one of them is that he’s not ready to perform in games that really count, games like this, against the kind of defense the Ravens bring to the field. I think this is where the injuries Houston has had to deal with this season finally do the Texans in. I expect Houston to play well (and I expect them to be a serious contender in 2012), but in the end I think they come up short. Baltimore wins 17-9.

NY Giants (+7.5) at Green Bay
Here’s the other game that isn’t really about offense vs. defense. It’s also the game this weekend that I think is most likely to produce an upset. The reason for both is the same: The Giants aren’t an unbalanced team. Yes, the Giants D, now that it’s healthy, is the better of the team’s units. The Giants bring a formidable pass rush that has the potential to disrupt the Packers’ passing game just as it did with the high-octane Patriots in Super Bowl XLII (a game it reached by beating the Packers in Green Bay in the NFC Championship, though that was a different Packers team). But the New Jersey offense has hardly been along for the ride the way that the San Francisco offense has been. Eli Manning has been having his best season as a pro. He has great receivers to throw to. In the regular season, he threw for 308 yards a game, two fewer than Aaron Rodgers. And, so OK, the Manning threw for 16 fewer touchdowns than Rodgers. The Giants scored roughly 14 fewer points per game than the Packers. And New Jersey has trouble running the ball. That’s all true. But my point isn’t that the Giants offense is as good as the Packers O; it’s that the Giants are a balanced team. So, no, this is not about the Giants defense vs. the Packers offense. It’s about whether that New Jersey D can shave enough off the top of the Green Bay offense to allow Manning and his squad to keep pace. I think it can, but not for 60 minutes. I think the Giants will give the Packers a hell of a game, but I think in the end, homefield and and the incredible potency of the Green Bay offense will prove just too much. The Packers win 31-28.

Upsets happen in the wild card round. But I’ll be damned if I can figure out where they’re going to take place this weekend. I’m picking one, mostly because I feel like I ought to pick at least one. But that probably just means that the other three games will result in upsets while that one goes to the favorite. Which is really just another way of saying here’s what not to expect.

Cincinnati (+4) at Houston
Maybe if the Bengals weren’t dealing with the flu. Or maybe if the Texans relied more on T.J. Yatesthan they did on the running game. Or maybe if Cincinnati had it in them to stop the Houston run. Maybe, maybe, maybe. The Texans are simply the more balanced team here. Add in healthy (by which I mean not sick, not uninjured) and at home and you get just enough of a difference for Houston to earn a trip to Baltimore (where they will suffer ignominious defeat) next weekend. Texans by a field goal.

Detroit (+10.5) at New Orleans
It’s all very nice to root for the Lions, who haven’t won a post-season game since 1991, but let’s be honest here: The Lions don’t have what it takes to beat the Saints in New Orleans. OK, you know what? Maybe, maybe, if the Lions defense can pick off Drew Brees a couple of times, the Lions will be able to pull off an upset. Come out a +3 in takeaway-giveaway differential and Detroit will totally have this one. But I don’t see that happening. And barring that, I don’t see any way the Lions can get to the next round. Saints by a touchdown.

Atlanta (+3) at NY Giants
As with virtually every game the Giants have played this season, this one all comes down to which New Jersey squad shows up. (No, I don’t mean to suggest that the Jets may step in here.) The good Giants can beat any team in the league. The bad ones can’t even hold off Washington in their own building. If I had faith in the Giants to show up, I’d pick them. They’re a better team than they’re given credit for being and their at home and that’s usually enough. But I just don’t have faith. And I do feel confident that the Falcons will come in ready to play. Do that (and focus on running the ball) and the Falcons will be the team that gets to lose next weekend in Green Bay. Atlanta by a point.

Pittsburgh (-8.5) at Denver
You know what? I don’t care if Rashard Mendenhall is out and Ben Douchelisbagger is all kinds of gimpy. The Broncos don’t belong in the playoffs. And they’re not beating the Steelers. Not on any field. Not that I expect a blowout, mind you. I think the Broncos defense will hold the injury-riddled Steelers O to very few points. It’s just that whatever Pittsburgh scores will be enough, because Denver will be lucky to put up three points. Let’s go with the Steelers winning 7-3.

Give the NFL credit. A couple years back, the league tweaked its scheduling system so that all week 17 games would be played between division rivals. The thinking was that the move provided the best chance for limiting the number of meaningless games in the final week of the season. It seems to have worked. Of the 16 games on the schedule this weekend, only three have no post-season implications. So that worked. Doesn’t mean we’ll have 13 killer games (there’s more than one matchup here in which only one team has something to play for), but it should mean we won’t have two good games and 14 duds, the way we did with some weeks 17 of years gone by. I’ll take it. Here’s what not to expect.

Washington (+8.5) at Philadelphia
The poor, pathetic, disappointing 7-8 Eagles. Right? I mean, they should be playing for something this weekend, the way the Cowboys and Giants are. But, you know, too little too late. And now the best they can do is finish the season 8-8, which will be the exact same record as the loser of the NFC East title game, and one game behind the division champ. The NFC East is a joke. Eagles by two touchdowns.

Detroit (-3) at Green Bay
With the dream of 19-0 two weeks gone, the NFC one seed locked up, and ongoing injury concerns along the offensive line, the Packers are expected to rest some starters. The Lions are in the playoffs, but a win would mean the difference between being seeded fifth or sixth. And that’s the difference between a wild card round trip to the fairly week Giants or Cowboys or the dangerous Saints. That’s something to play for. And it’s why I expect the Lions to come out ahead, though I think it’s a push with the points.

NY Jets (+3) at Miami
The Dolphins should win this game. You know, what with being the better team on both sides of the ball and playing at home and all that. But the thing about the Frat Boys is that they’re hard to kill. Just when you think you’re rid of them, they show up again to plague you. Like vermin. In the end, I suspect New Jersey needs too much help to actually qualify for the playoffs. But I think the Frat Boys at least will do their own part, edging the Dolphins by a point.

Carolina (+7.5) at New Orleans
Sean Payton says his team is playing to win regardless of what the scoreboard tells him about San Francisco-St. Louis. I have a hard time believing that. If the 49ers win, the Saints are the three seed regardless of how this game turns out. And I can’t imagine Payton risking injuries to key starters if the Niners are ahead by 20 heading into the fourth quarter. That said, I do think the Saints will play hard up to the point at which there’s no chance of a Rams win. And that alone should be enough to ensure a win. I’m not giving seven and a half, though. I’ll go with Saints by four.

San Francisco (-10.5) at St. Louis
The Niners earn a week off with a win. The Rams are gonna have the next several months off no matter what happens. St. Louis also has an outside chance of wresting the first pick in the 2012 draft from the Colts with a loss here. And even if none of that were true, this game would still pit the stingiest defense in football against the least productive offense in the league. It all points in one direction: 49ers by 13.

Chicago (+1.5) at Minnesota
Ugh. Vikings by a field goal.

Tennessee (-2.5) at Houston
The Titans need a win to stay in the mix for the final AFC playoff spot. The Texans have nothing to win or lose here with regard to the playoffs; they’re the three seed no matter what. And while there’s an idea out there that the Texans don’t want to go into the post-season on a three-game losing streak, I’m not sure that’s their biggest concern. If the Titans do win and do capture the six seed, these two teams will be back in this spot a week from now with something real on the line. I don’t think you want to show your opponent more than you have to in that situation. I think the Texans will play, but I think they’ll play conservatively. And with the Titans playing all-out, I suspect Tennessee with earn a chance to come back to Houston and get beat. Titans by a point.

Indianapolis (+3.5) at Jacksonville
Let’s just say that a loss here would be a Luck-y break for the Colts. Jacksonville by a touchdown.

Buffalo (+10) at New England
The Patriots are a win away from securing the top seed in the AFC. Also, according to Vince Wilfork, the Pats are eager to make up for their loss in Buffalo back in week three. Oh, and, in the time between then and now, the Bills have gone from promising upstarts to one of the worst squads in football. That should be enough. New England by 17.

Pittsburgh (-7) at Cleveland
Forget about the outside chance that the AFC North champion could also be the conference one seed. It doesn’t matter. Even if the one seed were off the table, the Steelers and Ravens both would have plenty to play for this week. Because the team that takes the division title is getting a week off and at least one home game in the playoffs. And the team that has to settle for a wild card slot and the five seed is getting a trip to first round Oakland or Denver and a near guarantee of having to play all of its post-season games on the road. That’s more than enough incentive to play hard. And with the Browns on the other side of the line of scrimmage, playing hard should be more than enough to guarantee a win for the Steelers. Pittsburgh by 10.

Kansas City (+3) at Denver
Romeo Crennel is right: This game isn’t about Kyle Orton vs. Tim Tebow. It’s not gonna be that easy for the Chiefs. That said, the game will, in many ways, come down to Tim Tebow vs. the Kansas City defense. And that’s good news indeed for Crennel’s squad. Kansas City’s DBs do an outstanding job of picking off opposing quarterbacks. And Tim Tebow is becoming quite adept at throwing interceptions. I expect to see both trends continue. And I expect to see the Chiefs pull off another big upset as a result. Kansas City by a point.

Baltimore (-2) at Cincinnati
The Bengals are the only team in the mix for the final AFC wild card slot who can win their way into the playoffs. That is, if the Bengals can find a way to hold off the Ravens at home, they’re in the playoffs. That would put them in an enviable position if only it weren’t for the needing to hold off the Ravens bit. Because the Ravens are a win away from sewing up the AFC North title and the conference two seed. And that probably makes them a bit more than the Bengals can handle. Baltimore by a field goal.

Seattle (+3) at Arizona
These teams are as evenly matched as their identical 7-8 records imply. Neither of them does anything particularly well and neither of them is going anywhere as a result. So, evenly matched division game, you take the home team, right? Right. Except I can’t stop looking at the one area where these teams aren’t even: giveaway-takeaway. The Cardinals are a horrendous -12. The Seahawks, on the strength of 21 picks, are a respectable +7. That, I think tips the scales. Seattle by a field goal.

Tampa Bay (+11) at Atlanta
I’m assuming that by the time this game starts (or at least very early on) the Falcons will have nothing to play for. Detroit will have sewn up the five seed and Atlanta will be looking at a wild card round trip to New Orleans or San Francisco (which is to say an early exit from the playoffs). I still think the Falcons beat the Buccaneers, but only by six.

San Diego (+3) at Oakland
The Chargers are done. The Raiders are trying to play their way into the post-season for the first time since 2002. The math is simple. Oakland by 10.

Dallas (+3) at NY Giants
Can we assume that with the NFC East title on the line, the good Giants will show up and play their way into the post-season? No. But we can assume that the one and only Tony Romo will show up and find a way to hurt his team at the biggest moment. I expect him to do it the old fashioned way: by throwing a stupid pick. New Jersey by four.

Here’s your chance to guarantee yourself a Merry Christmas. Bet against these picks. Or, put another way, here’s what not to expect.

Miami (+9.5) at New England
You know, I’ve long had the feeling that we wouldn’t see one of the Patriots’ units start truly firing on all cylinders until near the end of the regular season. I just never thought that unit would turn out to be the offense. Yes, the Dolphins are much better now than they were when back in week one when they were dismantled by New England in Miami, but so are the Patriots. The outcome is the same: New England wins by 14 (and sews up a first-round bye thanks to Houston’s inability to finish off the Colts on Thursday night).

Jacksonville (+7.5) at Tennessee
At 7-7, the Titans are no longer legitimate playoff contenders. But they haven’t been mathematically eliminated yet, which should give them reason to play just well enough to hold off the Jags at home. Tennessee by a field goal.

NY Giants (+3) vs. NY Jets
This game shouldn’t have mattered to the Giants. If they had managed to top Washington last week, all New Jersey blue would need to do is beat the Dallas in week seventeen and the NFC East title would be theirs. Of course, they didn’t beat the Native Americans, so now the Giants face this reality: Win here and they have a shot at the division and the playoffs; lose and chances are all they’ll be able to accomplish next weekend will be to help the Eagles become division champs. Is that likely to make a difference? No, not really. The reality of the Giants is that there’s just no telling what you’re going to get. They’re a better team than the Frat Boys. And they should be able to win this “road” game, regardless of whose fans are in the building. But the Giants keep not winning games they ought to win and I can’t see this one turning out any differently. New Jersey green comes out ahead by a touchdown.

Tampa Bay (+7.5) at Carolina
You know what’s almost interesting about this game? The fact that while both of these teams are going exactly nowhere, they are, at the same time, headed in completely different directions. Carolina by six.

St. Louis (+14) at Pittsburgh
What does it say about you when you’re visiting a team that’s locked in a battle for first place in its division, but that team resolves nonetheless to rest its ailing quarterback. Hint: It doesn’t say that your opponent takes you very seriously. The oddsmakers clearly don’t, either. The Steelers win, 10-0.

Cleveland (+12.5) at Baltimore
The Browns don’t score. The Ravens don’t allow opponents to score. I don’t care about division rivalries, this game is only going one way. Ravens by 14.

Arizona (+4) at Cincinnati
If the Cardinals had any ability to hold on to the damned ball, they’d be a serious threat to the Bengals’ post-season hopes. They aren’t, so they’re not. Cincinnati by six.

Minnesota (+6.5) at Washington
I’m still trying to get my head around how the Native Americans beat the Giants last weekend. Because, really, Washington has no business beating much of anyone. Except for the really awful teams. You know, like Minnesota. And even then, I’m not giving six and a half. Washington by a field goal.

Denver (-3) at Buffalo
Last week, we learned what happens when the Broncos have to face a real football team. That’s almost certainly gonna prove problematic if the Broncos make the post-season. Hell, Denver may have some difficulty in their week 17 matchup with Kansas City. And here, traveling on a short week … ah, never mind, the Bills clearly have packed it in for the season. The Broncos can go right back to that thing where they don’t even bother to field an offense until the last two minutes of the game and still fall ass-backward into a win. Denver by a point.

Oakland (+2.5) at Kansas City
Hey, I don’t know if you’ve heard about this, but the Chiefs accomplished something last week that no one had been able to pull off all season. Pretty impressive, but I’m not sure it indicates that interim head coach Romeo Crennel truly has the team turned around. What I do know is that the Raiders are in full-on collapse. This is Oakland completes the fall and all but officially falls out of the playoff chase. Kansas City by four.

San Diego (+2.5) at Detroit
There’s no room for error left in the Chargers’ schedule. If they’re going to fight their way up the AFC West standings and into the playoffs, they’re going to need to perform here and next week against Oakland the way they did Sunday night versus Baltimore. (And even that might not be enough. The Chargers will need help from the Bills and/or the Chiefs in order to catch up with the Broncos.) The Lions have room for a loss, but they have to consider the strong possibility that there’s a loss coming next week in Green Bay. At the very least, they have to figure that their odds of winning and clinching a playoff spot are better here at home than they will be facing the league’s best team on the road. (Yeah, yeah, yeah. The Packers, with an undefeated season no longer a possibility and the one seed about to be wrapped up, may well choose to rest starters in week 17. But you can’t go counting those chickens.) And that’s not to mention the fact that the difference between the five and six seeds in the NFC will be that five gets a wildcard weekend trip to face whichever squad bumbles its way to the NFC East title while six has to take on San Francisco or New Orleans. Of course, none of this stuff really matters. What matters, I think, is that the Chargers probably don’t have two straight great games against playoff teams in them. That and the fact that the Lions know how to hold on to the ball, while the Chargers just don’t. Detroit by a field goal.

Philadelphia (+1.5) at Dallas
Jerry Jones should be scared. The Eagles have figured out how to play football at a high level. Jones’ team has not. And it’s going to make the difference in which team goes to the playoffs. Philadelphia by a touchdown.

San Francisco (+2.5) at Seattle
The Seahawks have a chance here to make life difficult for a division rival and to ensure that they’ll finish with .500 record at worst. That’s not the playoffs, but it’s something, right? Thing is, I’m not sure it happens. Seattle thrives on forcing turnovers. That’s a great approach. Trouble here is, the Niners do it better. San Francisco by two.

Chicago (+12) at Green Bay
In which the Packers sew up the NFC one seed and eliminate the Bears from playoff contention. Angry Green Bay by three touchdowns.

Atlanta (+6.5) at New Orleans
I just don’t think the Falcons’ offense can keep up here. Maybe if they get back to New Orleans in two or three weeks, they’ll … actually, no, they’ll lose then, too. New Orleans by

Busy week, what with the last-minute shopping and all, so I’m probably only gonna get to the one game before kickoff tonight. Here are my misleading and almost certainly inaccurate thoughts on that.

Houston (-6) at Indianapolis
Horrifically poor showing in week fifteen (and what it would at least appear to indicate about their ability to overcome their injury problems) aside, the  Texans are still in the running for a first-round bye. The Colts, having dispatched the terrible specter of a winless season, have very little left to play for in 2011. I suspect the Indy players have packed their bags and I think the results here will reflect that. Houston by 10.

I knew I’d get to the rest of this week’s picks eventually. This much wrong just has to find an outlet. Here’s what not to expect.

Cincinnati (-7) at St. Louis
The Bengals probably aren’t making the playoffs. They’re 7-6, like the Raiders and Titans, and a game behind the Frat Boys in the race for the final AFC wild card spot. They need to win out just to to stay in contention, and a week 17 appointment with the Ravens is going to get in the way of their achieving that goal. In the meantime, though, I expect to see Cincinnati play like a team on a mission, which is bad news for the sputtering Rams and their soon-to-be ex-coach. Bengals by double the spread.

Green Bay (-13.5) at Kansas City
Once the Packers wrap up the NFC one seed with their beatdown of the Chiefs, the media will start to talk about whether the team should make a push for 16-0 (and then 19-0) or rest starters and ensure they stay healthy for the playoffs. I don’t think it’s an either/or situation. I mean, it’s not like you want your best players sitting around getting rusty for three weeks. They’ve got to play some. And the fact is (with apologies to fans of the Bears and Lions), given that this is Green Bay’s last road trip of the season, there isn’t a game left on the Packers’ schedule that they can’t sew up with a solid half of play from their starters. I know, I know. Any given Sunday and all. That’s nice. But, come on. The fact is, 16-0 is effectively a done deal. And even if you don’t buy that, you’ve got to figure 14-0 isn’t going to be much of a struggle. Green Bay by 20.

Seattle (+3.5) at Chicago
I know I haven’t had a good thing to say about the Seahawks all season, but you know what? I have a feeling Seattle may pull off an upset here. I’m pretty sure Chicago’s post-season hopes officially fell apart with the Bears’ ridiculous performance in the closing minutes last weekend in Denver. And the Seahawks certainly have put together solid performances over the past couple of weeks, albeit at home against the Eagles and Rams. And I know the Seahawks are traveling on a short week. But still, I don’t know. I’ve just got a hunch. Seattle by a point.

Tennessee (-6.5) at Indianapolis
With 0-16 all but locked up, will the Colts rest starters? Titans by 10.

Washington (+6.5) at NY Giants
The Native Americans played the Patriots tough last weekend. So that’s nice for them. Doesn’t mean much, especially since they still lost but it’s nice. The Giants, meanwhile, worked their way into a tie-breaker with the Cowboys for first place in the NFC East. That won’t mean much in the long run either. Neither the New Jersey nor Dallas has any real hope of getting past Green Bay or New Orleans (and probably not even San Francisco) in the post-season. Maybe the NFC East winner will survive a home game against Atlanta, but that’s it. So, yeah, meaningless. But you do get to call yourselves division champs. And, right now, winning the division appears to be the only sure ticket into the playoffs for NFC East teams. And to win the East, the Giants need to win this game (and then beat Dallas in week 17). They’ll do that. New Jersey by nine.

Carolina (+6) at Houston
Sooner or later, all the injuries are going to catch up with the Texans. I know I’ve said it before, and it hasn’t proven true yet, but eventually it’ll have to. Right? Only maybe not this week, when a defense that picks off a ton of balls faces a quarterback who throws a ton of picks. And not next week, when the Texans travel to No-wIndy. So let’s go with week 17 vs. Tennessee. Or the playoffs. Yeah, the playoffs; that’s it. Houston by a touchdown.

New Orleans (-7) at Minnesota
With the Falcons breathing down their necks in the NFC South and a head-to-head matchup with Atlanta just a week away, the Saints absolutely must win this game. They will. There are very few teams that can stop the Saints from scoring 30 points. And there are very few teams that have trouble scoring 30 against the Vikings. It’s not hard to see where this game is headed. New Orleans by 14.

Miami (pick ’em) at Buffalo
I know the Dolphins are a team in turmoil and everything, but the Bills just plain stink. I think the visitors find a way to come out on top in this one. Miami by a point.

Detroit (-1) at Oakland
The good news for the Raiders is that the Lions are very unlikely to humiliate them the way the Packers did. The bad news is, that’s only good news. Detroit by six.

Cleveland (+6.5) at Arizona
The Cardinals have won three in a row. Hard to believe, right? So what are we going to make of four straight? Big day for Beanie Wells against one of the worst run defenses in the league as Arizona wins by 10.

New England (-7.5) at Denver
The Broncos have a great defense, right? And the Patriots have a lousy defense. That’s the word on the street. So how come the Broncos give up two more points per game, on average, than the Pats. Could it be that both teams have average Ds? Because that’s how it looks to me. So if that’s the case, and one team has a high-powered offense directed by one of the all-time great quarterbacks while the other has a largely ineffective offense steered one of the all-time most overhyped quarterbacks, what’s the likely outcome? New England by 17.

NY Jets (+3) at Philadelphia
If the Frat Boys win out, they’re in the playoffs. They’re not winning out. They’re losing next weekend when they “host” the Giants. But they’re winning here, because the Eagles are hideously uneven and virtually incapable of winning two straight. New Jersey by four.

Baltimore (-2.5) at San Diego
The Chargers think they’re still in the playoff hunt. They’re not. And this is when it becomes official. Baltimore by six.

Pittsburgh (+2.5) at San Francisco
Neither of these playoff teams can afford a loss. For the Steelers, a single loss could mean the difference between earning a first-round bye (and perhaps home field through the AFC playoffs) as AFC North champs or spending January on the road as the conference five seed. For the 49ers, a loss likely would mean the difference between the NFC two seed and a first-round bye and the three seed and a path to the Super Bowl that would likely go through both New Orleans and Green Bay. Thing is, one of these teams has to lose. I’m looking at the fact that the Niners simply don’t turn the ball over, considering that San Francisco is at home, and looking hard at the Steelers’ serious injury issues, and figuring the 49ers come out ahead by, oh, let’s say three.

They keep on coming in dribs and drabs.

Dallas (-7) at Tampa Bay
We interrupt our regularly scheduled December collapse to bring you this very special edition of “The Cowboys Look Like a Real Football Team.” Enjoy the presentation. And happy holidays. Dallas by 10.

Not gonna get to the full raft of games before tonight’s game kicks off (in, like, five minutes). So here’s what I’ve got for the nonce.

Jacksonville (+11) at Atlanta
Yeah, I guess the Jaguars did look pretty good beating up on the Buccaneers on Sunday. That’s nice and all, but I’m not sure it translates in any way to traveling (not far, but still) on a short week and finding a way to compete with an actual, playoff-contending NFL football team. Matt Ryan isn’t the league’s best quarterback, but he’s got a great football head and he knows how to control the game at the line of scrimmage. Against a defense like Jacksonville’s, which shows you exactly what you’re going to get, that’s a powerful weapon to have. Too powerful for the Jags to overcome. Falcons by 17.

Three quarters of the way through the season and other than having figured out that the safe thing to do is pick Green Bay every week, I remain almost entirely incapable of making heads or tails of the NFL. So, you know, here’s what not to expect in week fourteen.

Tampa Bay (pick ’em) at Jacksonville
If the Jags didn’t have an atrociously ineffective offense, weren’t operating on a short week, and weren’t coming off a humiliating Monday night loss, this game wouldn’t even be close. Because, look, you simply cannot commit the ridiculous number of turnovers that the Bucs have committed this season and hope to compete in road games in the NFL. But Jacksonville’s offense is awful and the Jaguars are playing under increasingly difficult circumstances, which is why they’ll only win this game by a point, when by all rights they should be Tampa by a touchdown.

Kansas City (+9) at NY Jets
Much as Rex Ryan may enjoy talking about his team’s post-season ambitions, the simple reality is that the Frat Boys are anything but certain even to make the playoffs. New Jersey is effectively three games behind New England in the AFC East with four weeks to play (they sit two games behind the Patriots in the standings, but New England holds the tie-breaker by virtue of a season sweep over their rivals). They’ve got next to no chance at overtaking the Pats. That puts them in competition for a wild card spot. More to the point, it puts them in a group of three contenders for the six seed. The loser of the AFC North race between Pittsburgh and Baltimore, each of which currently has three losses, will wind up with one of two wild card spots, and will almost certainly be the conference five seed. That leaves 7-5 New Jersey to compete for the last playoff spot with 7-5 Cincinnati, probably 7-5 Tennessee (unless the Titans can steal the AFC South title from 9-3 Houston, in which case the Titans will be even tougher for other teams to overtake for the six seed), and either 7-5 Oakland or 7-5 Denver (whichever team fails to win the AFC West title). That needle is going to be tough to thread. It means you really can’t afford to take a loss. And New Jersey has a tough out. They “host” the Giants in week 16 and travel to Miami to close out the season. They could lose both of those games. But that’s neither here nor there for the moment, I suppose. The topic of the moment is neither the final weeks of the season nor the playoffs. It’s this game, home against a Chiefs squad that’s plagued by injuries, playing on the road for the second straight week, and 1-4 in its last five games. That ought to be a win. It ought not to fill the Frat Boys and their fans with confidence, but I have little doubt that it will. New Jersey by 13.

Houston (+3) at Cincinnati
The Texans’ continued success notwithstanding, I have to believe that Houston’s never-ending string of injuries is bound to catch up with the team at some point. Maybe it’s here, on the road against a Bengals squad that’s in a crowd of teams scrambling for the AFC’s last playoff spot and that typically plays tough against the rush. That could pose a challenge for Houston; if the Texans have to go to the air, they’re going to be vulnerable. That said, Houston’s run D has been even tougher to overcome this season than Cincinnati’s. And when you throw against the Texans, you’re throwing into a secondary that’s picked off 17 balls this season, tied with New England and Kansas City for second most in the league (behind Green Bay). I think Houston should lose this game, but I’m not entirely sure they will. So I’m gonna take the Bengals straight up, but I’m gonna look for the Texans to keep it closer than three. Cincinnati by a point.

New England (-8) at Washington
Let’s be honest: The Native Americans didn’t have much hope of keeping up with the Patriots before they lost two key components of their offense. New England by two touchdowns.

Atlanta (-2.5) at Carolina
It’s starting to look like the only three teams in the NFC that really want to be part of the playoffs are the Packers, 49ers and Saints. It’s possible the Falcons will find a way to look like they want in this weekend (or at least more like it than they did a week ago). But you know what? I don’t think so. Panthers by a field goal.

Philadelphia (+3) at Miami
Both of these 4-8 teams have managed to disappoint fans by failing to live up to expectations, but at least one of them looks like it’s still trying. The Dolphins are 4-1 in their last five games. And, sure, they’ve only beaten one arguably good team over that stretch, but they’re not facing a good team this weekend, so that qualifier doesn’t much matter. I don’t care that Michael Vick is playing; the Eagles’ are done and they’re not winning here. Dolphins by six.

New Orleans (-3.5) at Tennessee
This could (really should) be one of the week’s most exciting games. Both teams are in the post-season hunt. The Saints can conceivably clinch the NFC South title with a win and a little help from the Falcons; the Titans absolutely need a win to hold position in the race for the last AFC wild card spot (they also have an outside chance of overtaking Houston for the AFC South championship). And while the Saints on paper are the better team, the Titans have at least a few factors working in their favor. To begin with, Chris Johnson appears finally to be playing at a consistently high level. That makes the Titans much more dangerous opponents than they’ve been through most of the season. There’s also the fact that the Saints performance on the road has been spotty at best. Two of New Orleans’ three losses on the season have come in road games against weak opponents, Tampa Bay in week six and St. Louis in week eight. If I thought Tennessee had a strong enough pass D to so much as slow down Drew Brees, I’d probably take the Titans to pull off the upset. But I don’t. So I’m looking for the Saints to win it by a field goal.

Indianapolis (+16.5) at Baltimore
Gee, I wonder if the Ravens will be able to dig deep and find a way to win and keep up with Pittsburgh in the AFC North title race. It’s a poses, isn’t it? Ravens by 20.

Minnesota (+8) at Detroit
After this game, the fading Lions travel to Oakland, host San Diego and close out the season at Green Bay (where they Packers will be looking to polish off a 16-0 regular season). If they can win the home games, they’ll finish at 9-7, which will likely be enough to earn them at least the six seed, possibly the five. And I’m pretty sure the Lions are winning their remaining home games. Detroit by 10.

Chicago (+3.5) at Denver
The only advice I can give on this game is, bet the under. Chicago’s defense should be able to hold Tim “Still Not An NFL Quarterback” Tebow to next to no production. And the Chicago offense likely would have struggled against Denver’s D even if they had a healthy quarterback (by which I mean a healthy quarterback who’s a legit NFL starter), which they don’t. Broncos win 9-6.

San Francisco (-3.5) at Arizona
The Niners are in a race for the NFC two seed. The Cardinals are in a race for the offseason. San Francisco by a touchdown.

Buffalo (+7) at San Diego
I’d really love to see the Bills come out of San Diego with a win, just so I could stop hearing about how the 5-7 Chargers (5-7, folks) are still legitimate playoff contenders. Because they’re not. But the Bills aren’t winning this game, no matter what I might like, and I’m going to have to continue to hear about the Chargers until the Ravens finally put them out of my misery in week 15. So it goes. San Diego by four.

Oakland (+11) at Green Bay
Let’s face it, the Packers are headed for 16-0. And there are probably only two or three teams with any chance of coming between them and 19-0. I mean, we’ll see what happens in January and February, but for right now, Green Bay by 14.

NY Giants (+3.5) at Dallas
In which the Giants pull even with the Cowboys in the entirely meaningless NFC East title chase. New Jersey by a field goal.

St. Louis (+5.5) at Seattle
Hey, look, they’re still pretending that the NFC West teams that aren’t the 49ers have a reason to keep playing football. Isn’t that cute? Seahawks by a touchdown.

Yeah, I’m not gonna get all my picks done before tonight’s exciting AFC North matchup kicks off (though given what a compelling game it’s almost certain not to be, I’m sure I’ll be able to finish the rest while I sort of watch), so here’s my take on that.

Cleveland (+14) at Pittsburgh
Here’s what you need to know about this game: Cleveland doesn’t score much (the Browns have averaged just better than 14 points a game so far this season. Pittsburgh’s D is among the best in the league at keeping opponents off the board (they’ve given up an average of just 16.3 points per game so far this season). The Steelers are neck-and-neck with the Ravens in a race for the AFC North crown, in which the winner probably gets a first-round by and may get home field through the playoffs, and the loser gets the near certainty of having to play all of its post-season games on the road. And the Browns defense couldn’t stop a one-legged dachshund with one bad eye and one blind eye from rushing for 150 yards. That’s the long way of saying this game is a disaster waiting to happen. Steelers by 20.