This Football Blog

Just 13 games this weekend. That’s lucky 13 for me. Less to get wrong. Here’s what not to expect.

Seattle (+7) at San Francisco
The Seahawks have a better defense than the team that held the 49ers to three points in San Francisco on Sunday. But the 49ers have a much, much better defense than the one that allowed the Seahawks to come back from a 13-point fourth quarter deficit in Seattle that same afternoon. The 49ers also have the better offense in this game by a huge margin. Add in the fact that Seattle is traveling on short rest following an emotional victory and I suspect you get a blowout. Niners by 17.

Tennessee (+3) at Buffalo
Neither defense can stop opponents from scoring. Neither offense can score. Should be interesting to see what gives. The Bills are bad, but the Titans are slightly worse, so I’ll take the home team straight up and look for a push with the points.

Arizona (+6) at Minnesota
You know why Kevin Kolb is hurt? No, it’s not just one big hit. It’s 27 sacks. More telling: 27 sacks in five starts. That’s 5.4 per game. And that’s brutal. Do you think John Skelton‘s likely to have much success behind an O line that allows that kind of pressure? I don’t. The Cardinals D will keep the team in the game, but Minnesota comes out ahead, if only by a point or two.

Cleveland (+3) at Indianapolis
If either of these teams had any ability to run the ball, the other one would be in a world of trouble. But they don’t. And that’s all I’ve got. The Colts are at home, so I’m taking them, but I wouldn’t give more than a point.

Baltimore (+6.5) at Houston
The only defense that you could find in Baltimore is hurt. Got that? The whole defense got hurt. That’s some lousy timing right there. Texans by a touchdown.

Green Bay (-5.5) at St. Louis
You know what happens when the Packers actually give their quarterback some protection? This. It’ll be interesting to see if the Green Bay offensive line can keep it up, or if it goes back to giving up four-plus sacks a game. I expect to see continued improvement. But I also expect to see a team playing its second straight road game. I’ll take the Packers, but I wouldn’t give more than four.

Dallas (-2) at Carolina
Jerry Jones can think whatever the hell he wants to think; the Cowboys aren’t winning a title. The way the Cowboys turn the ball over, it’ll take something of a miracle for them to win eight games. But they’ll win this one. Probably by a field goal (assuming it doesn’t go wide).

Washington (+6) at NY Giants
The Giants lead the NFC East with a record of 4-2. And they just pulled off an incredibly impressive win in San Francisco. But they’re also 0-2 in the conference. They can’t afford to fall to 0-3. The Native Americans won’t make this game easy to win, but the Giants should still be able to pull it off. I expect to see a lot of scoring by both teams, what with the Native Americans’ potent offense and impotent defense. But in the end Washington’s slipshod D will prove the difference as the Giants take it 31-27.

New Orleans (-3) at Tampa Bay
The Saints are done in the NFC South. Their 1-4 start has left them, less than halfway through the season, with no chance of catching 6-0 Atlanta. And if they’re to have any hope of overcoming the ongoing distractions and clawing their way into position for a wild card berth, they’re going to have to start with a win here. I can’t come up with one piece of concrete evidence to suggest that New Orleans will be able to pull off a win here (OK, well, there’s Josh Freeman, but that’s it). But, still, I have a feeling that they will. Saints by six.

NY Jets (+10.5) at New England
The New England secondary can make any NFL quarterback look like the second coming of Dan Marino. And it appears that’s going to be a problem all season. Luckily for the Patriots, the Jets don’t currently have an actual NFL quarterback on their roster. New England by 14.

Jacksonville (+4) at Oakland
One of these teams pretty much has to not lose this game. And … uh … yeah, that’s it. The Raiders are at home, so I’ll take them to not lose. By three.

Pittsburgh (-2.5) at Cincinnati
If the Bengals had any ability to hold onto the ball, I might be tempted to pick them in this game. (I wouldn’t feel that way if the game were in Pittsburgh, but in Cincy, just maybe.) But they don’t. So I’m taking the Steelers. By four.

Detroit (+6) at Chicago
The way the Chicago defense has been playing, even Jay Cutler hasn’t been able to find ways to manufacture losses. That will change eventually. But not this week. Bears by 10.

It’s all about turnovers this week. Or most of it is. Or … well, at least that’s the way I see it. Of course, I’m kind of obsessed with turnovers to begin with, which raises the question, why are you even listening to me? Here’s what not to expect.

Pittsburgh (-6) at Tennessee
I’m sure this game looked pretty good on paper back when the schedule was put together. That’s when people thought the Titans were toward something. The only thing Tennessee’s building now is a tally of points scored by their opponents. The Titans give up an NFL-worst 36 per game. And in related news, the Titans trail all 31 other teams in net points, with a -93. I don’t expect to see the scoring trends magically reverse themselves here. Pittsburgh by 14.

Cincinnati (-1) at Cleveland
I know the Bengals just dropped one at home to the Dolphins (as I predicted they would). That looks pretty bad. But let’s be honest: Perhaps the best thing you can say about the Browns in relation to the Dolphins is that Cleveland is marginally less awful about turning the ball over. And that thing is, you don’t so much worry about turnovers when you play the Bengals, because they have such limited ability to take the ball away. The Browns are worse than the Dolphins at everything else. I don’t see the Bengals outpacing the Steelers for a wild card spot at this point, but neither do I expect to see them fall quite so far into the AFC North basement as the Browns. Cincinnati by a field goal.

Indianapolis (+3.5) at NY Jets
Here it is, folks. Stoppable force vs. movable object. Neither offense can run the ball worth a tenth of a pickled damn, which is going to prove frustrating to someone, because neither defense could stop a running joke. So this game happens in the air. I honestly don’t know which team is gonna come out ahead, and I suspect I won’t until about 5:30 Sunday afternoon when the thing finally wraps up. But I guess in a passers dual, I’ll take the team with the promising young quarterback over the team that doesn’t seem to have a quarterback. Indianapolis by one.

Kansas City (+4) at Tampa Bay
I know I’ve said effectively this same thing about this same team before, but it just keeps on being true: You can’t win games in the NFL when you consistently turn the ball over the way the Chiefs do. Kansas City has lost a league-worse 10 fumbles. In five games. You don’t need me to do the math on that one for you, right? (Aw, hell, just in case: 10/5=awful.) Factoring in their nine picks, you get to a giveaway/takeaway differential of -15, also worst in the league. Until they fix that, the Chiefs are going nowhere. Buccaneers by 10.

Oakland (+9) at Atlanta
It appears the AFC West is becoming the new NFC West. (That’s not a compliment.) And the Raiders are back from an early bye to demonstrate that even when you’re well rested, having no ability to run the ball, throw the ball, stop the run, or stop the pass will tend to prevent you from winning football games. Falcons by 14, minimum.

Dallas (+3.5) at Baltimore
Let’s spin the Wheel of Romo to see how Tony will cost his team any chance of winning this game. Brrrrrrrrrrrr-rut-dut-dut-dut-dut-dut-dah: Botched exchange leads to a turnover deep in Cowboys territory! Thank you for playing Wheel of Romo! A strong defensive effort by the Cowboys is wasted as the Ravens come out on top by six.

Detroit (+4) at Philadelphia
The Eagles aren’t playing good enough football to be in first place in the NFC East. But the Lions aren’t playing good enough football for that to matter. More’s the pity for the Giants, who actually have to face a good team this week. Turnover machine Michael Vick and the Eagles offense will do everything they can to lose this game, but they’ll still come out ahead, if only by a point.

St. Louis (+3.5) at Miami
Last week I picked the underdog Dolphins to win on the road (got it right). This week, I’m looking for the home favorite Dolphins to lose. Why? Well, mostly because while there aren’t a ton of things the Rams do well, they are pretty good at picking off passes. And Ryan Tannehill is pretty good at throwing interceptions. I don’t see a ton of other factors that separate these teams, so I’ll go with that. St. Louis by three.

New England (-3.5) at Seattle
Don’t look for Tom Brady and the Patriots offense to put up their usual 33 points in this game. Yes, it does appear that the Patriots have bounced back from their close losses in weeks two and three. And, yes, New England appears to have created a balanced and complex offense that will force opponents to pick their poison. That should serve them well through the balance of the season. But it doesn’t mean you can count on the Patriots hanging a ton of points on every team they face. The Seattle defense is big and fast. The Seahawks stuff the run and bat down passes at the line of scrimmage. They may actually have the kind of D that can pick its poison and spit it back out. Unfortunately for Seattle, the Seahawks’ offense isn’t quite there yet. They move the ball well on the ground behind Marshawn Lynch, but they don’t score many rushing TDs (just two so far this season). More to the point, the Seattle passing attack is nothing anyone needs to worry about. And any time the Patriots D can focus on taking away the one thing an opponent does well, that opponent is in trouble. Seattle also has a habit of turning the ball over, which is particularly deadly when you face the Patriots, who are tied with Atlanta for second in the league in total takeaways (14). I expect a game that’s relatively close, but that ends with the Patriots ahead by a touchdown.

Buffalo (+4.5) at Arizona
Miserable bit of scheduling for the Bills, who play their second consecutive road game against an NFC West opponent. That’s gotta hurt. I expect Arizona to do pretty much what San Francisco did, though I don’t think they’ll score quite as many points. Let’s say Cardinals by 23.

Minnesota (+2) at Washington
It looks like Robert Griffin III is going to be able to play. That’s good news for the Native Americans. Less good is that Griffin still doesn’t play defense. And since neither does anyone else in a Washington uniform, I’ll go with Minnesota by four.

NY Giants (+6.5) at San Francisco
We all know what the 49ers need to do if they want to hold off the Giants this time around: Convert at least some third downs and, you know, hold onto the damned ball when it really, really matters. Once again, the Niners are the better team here (if only by a little). Of course, that only matters if you execute, but I expect San Francisco to execute this time around. If this were a playoff game, I might think different (and at this point I’d probably have faith that the Giants would find a way to win). But it isn’t the post-season. San Francisco by four.

Green Bay (+3.5) at Houston
So let me see if I’ve got this straight: The Packers have a Swiss cheese offensive line and, consequently, the second most sacked quarterback in the league. (Aaron Rodgers has been sacked 21 times this season, one fewer than Kevin Kolb and six more than any other QB. That puts him on track to take 67 sacks this season, which wouldn’t just shatter Rodgers’ own club record for a single season — 50, 2009 — but would be the fourth highest single-season total of all time. It would also match Rodgers’ combined sack totals from 2010 and 2011. All of which is to say, “Duck, Aaron! Duck!”) Green Bay also has an unproductive, and further diminishing, running attack. And the Packers are traveling to face a team with a defense that’s tied for fifth in the league in sacks (16) and that’s second in defensive passer rating (65.3). And despite all of that, somehow Green Bay’s only getting three and a half. Is that right? Note to the oddsmakers: These ain’t the Packers you used to know. Houston by 10.

Denver (+1.5) at San Diego
Two straight weeks on the road for Peyton Manning‘s Broncos. That’s not an easy task for Denver. Neither, it seems, is securing the football. Turnovers once again bite the Broncos on their hind quarters and the Chargers take a two-game lead in the AFC West. San Diego by six.

Six road teams giving points this week. And so where am I picking upsets? Not in those games. No, sir. Not me. That would be smart. And I’m either dumb as a post or a gigantic glutton for punishment. Or both. Here’s what not to expect.

Arizona (-1.5) at St. Louis
I was absolutely not a believer in the Cardinals heading into this season. But QuantCoach keeps telling me take turnovers out of the equation and the Cardinals are effectively the same as the 49ers. And I’m starting to see what he’s talking about. The Rams do a pretty good job taking the ball away (or at least they do by way of picks; they’ve yet to recover an opponent’s fumble), but the Cardinals have done an even better job so far this season of holding onto the ball. So I’m inclined to take Arizona and give the point and a half. Heck, I’ll double it: Cardinals by a field goal.

Atlanta (-3) at Washington
The Falcons are 4-0 by the very skin of their teeth. And if the Native Americans defense weren’t so bloody awful, I’d probably be looking at this one thinking that kind of luck can’t hold on forever. Atlanta has exhibited little ability to stop the run, which unquestionably is going to be a problem for them in a game that pits them against one of the better rushing offenses in the league. But Washington can’t stop anything and that’s gonna hurt like hell with Matt Ryan in the building. I expect to the Falcons find a way to win in yet another very close game. Atlanta by a point.

Philadelphia (+3.5) at Pittsburgh
You’re right, Michael Vick really was significantly less awful against the Giants on Sunday night than he’d been through the first three weeks of the season. That becomes a trend when it happens two or three times in a row. Until then, Vick remains in a category with Tony Romo: quarterbacks who are every bit as likely to cost their teams a win as earn them one. And as uneven as the Steelers may be, their defense eats quarterbacks like that alive. Pittsburgh by six.

Green Bay (-7) at Indianapolis
You’re going to hear and read about the Colts trying to win this one for their coach. And maybe there’s something to that. But I tend to think that if the Colts pull off a win, it’ll have less to do with them willing it to happen and more to do with the Packers’ offensive struggles. Green Bay’s O line has some issues with pass blocking (that’s why even after a game in which he took none, Aaron Rodgers continues be the most sacked quarterback in the NFL, averaging four a game). And the Packers’ rushing offense is … well, it sort of just isn’t, actually. If it weren’t for the fact that Indy’s still developing offense is probably thoroughly outmatched by the Green Bay D, I’d actually be tempted to pick the home team to pull off an upset here. Still, I just don’t quite see it. Not straight up, anyhow. Packers by four.

Cleveland (+9) at NY Giants
The Giants would like to forget about their failure to pull off a comeback victory Sunday night. The Browns probably should forget about any thoughts of logging a win before mid-season. New Jersey by 14.

Tennessee (+5.5) at Minnesota
I’ll be honest: I haven’t bought in to the whole Vikings thing yet. That’s neither here nor there for this week, though. Because Christian Ponder has been playing very good football and Minnesota is finding ways to win games. And there really just isn’t anything that the Titans do well. Vikings by nine.

Miami (+3.5) at Cincinnati
If you can stop the run OK and you can create turnovers, you can beat the Dolphins. Every time. Now, guess which team isn’t good at either of those things. Bing! Miami in the upset. Let’s say by three.

Baltimore (-5) at Kansas City
The Chiefs have a giveaway/takeaway differential of -13. That’s the worst in the league. And the second worst, Dallas’ -7, isn’t even close. The math for Kansas City is tilted by the fact that the Chiefs have only two takeaways on the season. But still, that’s 15 giveaways in four games. And you don’t win football games when you turn the ball over close to four times a game. You just don’t. Baltimore by 10.

Seattle (+3) at Carolina
The Panthers are another team that gives the ball away too damned much. They’re -6 on the season in giveaway/takeaway. But the Seahawks don’t have it in them to capitalize on that tendency. Nor does Seattle have the offense to take advantage of Carolina’s weak D. Panthers by four.

Chicago (-5.5) at Jacksonville
There are, I would say, no fewer than 26 teams in the league that I would pick to beat Chicago this week. It’s the Bears second straight road game. They’re playing on a short week. And I just don’t think their win on Monday night, decisive though it may have been, was all that impressive. Tony Romo was a bigger factor in that game than Jay Cutler. Trouble is, none of the teams I would pick to beat the Bears this week is the Jacksonville Jaguars. Simple formula gets me there: When you can’t score, and you can’t keep your opponents from scoring, you can’t win football games. Crazy, but true. Tired Bears still win it by four.

Denver (+7) at New England
I know this is the game everybody wants to talk about this week, what with the renewal of the Tom Brady/Peyton Manning rivalry and all. And if I were a smarter man, I’d probably jump all over that (considering I have this book out about Brady being the best of all time, and Manning not). But I don’t see this game as likely to provide one of the more memorable Brady-Manning moments. Because as I’ve said before, I think Manning’s Broncos are likely to be a tough out all season long at home, not such much through most of the season on the road. The last time Denver played a road game, Manning threw three picks en route to a 27-21 loss to Atlanta. And the Patriots D has been as good as the Falcons D this season at picking off passes. If this game were in Denver, I might pick a close win by the Broncos. But it’s in Foxborough, so I’m going with the Patriots straight up. It’s a push with the points.

Buffalo (+9.5) at San Francisco
I’m just not sure there’s anything I could say about this game that would be worth my time or yours. San Francisco by 21.

San Diego (+3.5) at New Orleans
Given his druthers, do you think Drew Brees would pick breaking Johnny Unitas‘ supposedly untouchable record of 47 straight games with a touchdown pass, or leading the Saints to their first victory of the season? (I know they’re not mutually exclusive; just putting it out there.) I bet he’d pick a win. I’ve got a feeling he’s gonna get the record. That first win? Maybe in two weeks. Chargers by two.

Houston (-8) at NY Jets
Here’s where the bottom finally drops out on Mark Sanchez. And the 2012 Jets. And, ultimately, the Rex Ryan era. The Texans are probably slightly better than the team that just destroyed the Jets in New Jersey. And the Jets are now without yet another key player. So I’m gonna go with Houston by 35.

So I had this whole thing written about the scab refs and how they were ruining the game, and then the NFL had to go and get a deal done with the real officials. Thanks, guys. I appreciate it. No, really. Aw, hell, here’s what not to expect in week four.

Cleveland (+12) at Baltimore
Brandon Weeden may someday become the quarterback the Browns think he can be. Right now, he’s the 30th best QB in the NFL. That’s not gonna cut it in Baltimore. I can’t put it any more simply than that. Ravens by 17.

New England (-4) at Buffalo
It’s too simple to say that the Patriots simply cannot afford a third straight loss. It’s true (although it’s not like New England couldn’t possibly recover from a 1-3 start; they’ve done it before), but needing a win doesn’t actually get you to a win. And the Buffalo Bills, week one results notwithstanding, aren’t the kind of team you can count on simply to roll over. The Bills pass defense has been stout. Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown for eight TDs, which is twice as many as Tom Brady and ties Fitzpatrick with Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger for most in the league. The Bills also have been running the ball as well as any team in the league (though there’s some possibility that a pair of nagging injuries may slow them down a bit). If you were simply to look at a stat sheet, in fact, you could come away with the idea that the Bills were the better team. But that would leave out the fact that Buffalo hasn’t played much of anyone yet, while New England over the past two weeks has faced two of the better teams in the league. The Patriots lost both of those games, of course, but not by much (and not, in the most recent instance, without the influence of the scab referees). NFL schedules have a way of correcting skewed statistics, and I’m confident that for both the Patriots and the Bills, the correction process will begin to kick in here. Brady starts throwing touchdowns and New England comes out ahead by at least a touchdown.

Minnesota (+4.5) at Detroit
The Vikings caught the 49ers off guard last weekend. They’re not gonna be able to surprise Detroit. But the Lions allow opponents to find the end zone far too often to be favored by four and a half. I’ll take Detroit straight up, Minnesota with the points.

Carolina (+7) at Atlanta
By the time they take the field for this game, the Panthers will have had 10 days either to recover from or stew over their week three prime time humiliation at the hands of the New Jersey Giants. Maybe they’ll have learned something (by which I mean something somewhat less obvious than, if your quarterback throws three stupid picks, you generally lose the game). And maybe that something will help them. Eventually. Not in this game. Because almost nothing is going to help the Panthers in this game. Not against an Atlanta squad that’s outscoring most of the league on offense, giving up fewer points than most of the league on D, picking off balls left and right, and apparently streaking toward having the NFC South title sewn up by mid-season. And not against a quarterback who’s not simply finally playing up to his potential, but outplaying every other passer in the NFL. Ryan has thrown eight TDs to just a single interception this season. That’s just below record pace. And while it’s unlikely to hold up over 16 games, I feel fairly confident that it will hold up in this one, in which he faces a Carolina defense that has allowed opposing QBs to complete better than 68 percent of their passes so far this season. Atlanta takes this one by no fewer than 10.

San Francisco (-4) at NY Jets
The 49ers indubitably are the better team in this match. But they’re also a team playing their second consecutive road game (the first of which didn’t work out too well), and a west coast team playing an early game on the east coast. Neither of those factors promises to be kind to San Francisco. In fact, if it weren’t for the season-ending injury suffered last weekend by the best cornerback in the game, I might actually have been tempted to pick New Jersey. But they Jets don’t have their best DB, and the dropoff to their second best, and from their second to their third, is steep. The Jets also don’t have any ability to stop the run, which is a problem when you face the Niners. I still think the travel takes its toll, so I’m not giving four. But I like San Francisco to win it, let’s say by a field goal.

San Diego (+1) at Kansas City
Kansas City’s giveaway-takeaway differential is a league-worst -8. They’re going nowhere until they solve that problem. The Chiefs also need to learn how to finish drives. And to defend against the run. The Chargers aren’t a great football team, but they’re good enough to squeak by a Chiefs squad that hasn’t quite figured out that the regular season is well underway. San Diego by three.

Tennessee (+12) at Houston
The Texans might be the best team in football (or they might not be, but they’re certainly no worse than top three, at least for the nonce). The Titans are, um, you know, not. Here’s something odd — and probably only interesting to me, because I’m weird like this: Houston’s net points through week three are a league-best (tied, actually with Atlanta) +46; Tennessee’s net points are a league-worst -46. Spooky, right? Or not. Anyway, that’s a 92-point differential. Divide that by three and you get pretty close to 31. So considering that, I’m gonna go ahead and say, sure, the Texans should take this one by better than 12. Maybe more like 20.

Seattle (-2.5) at St. Louis
OK, so we all know that the Seahawks are a 1-2 team masquerading as a 2-1 team. (Thanks, scab refs.) But here’s the thing: the Rams are a 1-2 team that isn’t even masquerading as a promising 1-2 team. Neither of these squads has much of anything to offer by way of offense. But Seattle at least has a D. That should be enough to get the job done. Seahawks win one for real this time, probably by a field goal.

Miami (+6.5) at Arizona
Really? Six and a half? The 3-0 team that has in the last two weeks beaten New England on the road and trounced Philadelphia at home is hosting the 1-2 team that last week blew a seven-point fourth quarter lead to the New Jersey Jets in its own building, and, the one time this season its traveled to face a good team, was absolutely destroyed — and they’re only giving six and a half? I’ll give double that and then some. Cardinals by two touchdowns.

Oakland (+6.5) at Denver
One of these teams is gonna come out of this game 2-2. And since the one that’s playing at home is also the one that has been able to score at least some of the time and prevent its opponents from scoring at least some of the time, my inclination is to shrug slightly and pick that one. The Raiders win the first half 13-3, but the Broncos bring it back around in the second and come out ahead 27-23.

Cincinnati (-2.5) at Jacksonville
The Bengals probably aren’t as good as their 2-1 record implies. But the Jaguars almost certainly aren’t as good as their 1-2. In a game that takes place almost entirely on the ground, and takes all of about two and a half hours to play, the Bengals come out ahead by four.

New Orleans (+7.5) at Green Bay
When the 2012 schedule was released back in April, this looked like one of those games early in the season that might have major implications for the post-season. Not so much. The Saints arguably aren’t even looking to salvage their season any more. They’re 0-3, looking up at the 3-0 Atlanta Falcons in the NFC South and quite simply one of those teams that would probably be better served thinking about the draft than the playoffs. The Packers are 1-2, even if they should be 2-1. They’re angry about what happened in Seattle Monday night and no doubt ready to take it out on this week’s opponents. I fully expect the result to reflect that. But that doesn’t mean I expect the Packers to have a perfect game. There’s something amiss in Green Bay, something that I expect will slow down the Packers offense in this game and that bodes ill for the team’s long-term prospects. It’s this: Aaron Rodgers is currently the most sacked quarterback in the NFL. He’s taken 16 sacks in three games. And while eight of those came on Monday night, it remains the case that pass rushers are getting to Rodgers far too often. Look at Monday night as a statistical anomaly, and you still have Rodgers going down four times a game. Factor in the Seattle game and it shoots up to 5.3. That puts him on pace for somewhere between 64 and a record 85 sacks this season. It points to why a guy with a career passer rating of 103.2, and who finished last season with a record 122.5, is currently looking at an 87.0. The Packers need to figure out a way to protect their franchise or they’re going nowhere this season. But that isn’t a worry this week. Rodgers may take a sack or two, but the Saints just aren’t equipped to do any real damage on D. The Packers are. And that should be the difference. Green Bay by 10.

Washington (+3) at Tampa Bay
Clearly the Native Americans are a much different team now that they don’t have a defense. I don’t see how that stops biting them on their asses, even when the level of competition is just the Buccaneers. Still, I’m not giving a field goal. Tampa by one.

NY Giants (+2) at Philadelphia
This is another one of those games with a mystery spread. I get that these teams are both 2-1. I get that the Giants are on the road. I get that it’s an important division game. But come on, already. The Eagles are -6 in giveaway/takeaway differential. That’s worst in the conference, second worst in the league. Their coach has said he’ll evaluate his quarterback options as he goes. Why? Because he’s got a starter who can’t stop taking sacks and giving the ball away. Michael Vick has thrown six interceptions to just three touchdowns so far this season. He’s a 55 percent passer with a 66.2 passer rating. Those are awful numbers. You can’t win with a guy who continues to perform like that. And this week, Vick gets to face a Giants defense that has recorded two sacks and two interceptions per game — while playing against quarterbacks that don’t consistently take sacks and throw picks. I mean, how do you think this is likely to turn out? Me, I’m taking the Giants straight up. I’d give six if I had to.

Chicago (+3.5) at Dallas
Speaking of quarterbacks that take too many sacks and throws too many picks, can we just call it a career for Jay Cutler? Because it’s getting really, really, really hard to watch him fail to play football. Dallas by a touchdown.

I’d like to tell you that after two weeks of football things have started to make sense to me. But they haven’t. There’s a strong possibility that they never will. And it might just be that I’m stupid. (Do you ever worry that you’re stupid, but no one wants to tell you? I do sometimes. And then I think about how people are always telling me I’m stupid, which kind of negates that concern. Then I start to worry that maybe those people are right. Then I see something shiny and I forget all about the whole thing.) Anyway, here’s what not to expect in week three. (Ooh, there’s something shiny. See ya.)

NY Giants (+2.5) at Carolina
It’s a bit of a relief — for picking purposes, I mean — that the Giants are coming in so badly banged up. Because, well, here’s the deal. If it weren’t for those critical injuries, I might be forced to spend time trying to figure out whether it’s safe to read anything into last weekend’s results in Charlotte. And that would be tough to do without knowing just how much of a tailspin the coachless Saints are in. For instance, one might look at a box score from that contest and conclude that the Panthers’ found their run game. A 219-yard effort on the ground (even when 71 of those yards come from your quarterback) will tend to lead you to that kind of thinking. But the Saints also gave up 153 rushing yards to Washington in week one. So was it Carolina’s ground game coming to life or the New Orleans run D laying yet another egg? And even if you knew the answer, what application would it have this week? The Giants’ run defense has been nothing but uneven so far this season. Awful against the Cowboys, stout against the Buccaneers. And the Giants haven’t yet played away from the Meadowlands. So who are they, really? And on that note, I’m also not certain what to make of the fact that that the second quarter of last weekend’s game featured Eli Manning throwing picks like it was 2010. Maybe that was a fluke. Or maybe it points to the reemergence of an issue that has plagued Eli throughout his pro career (his touchdown/interception ratio is a distinctly non-elite 1.4/1). Only time and additional games will tell, though I can’t think of many quarterbacks who have been helped by losing most of their receiving corps. Fortunately, I don’t have to dwell on the uncertain/speculative stuff. Because I know for a fact that the Giants have some really serious injury issues. I also know that they’re traveling on a short week. That’s a terrible combination of factors. And that’s why I feel like I’ve gotta take Carolina. I think the Panthers win it by something like four, though I’d add three points to that for any/every Giants turnover.

St. Louis (+7.5) at Chicago
The St. Louis Rams aren’t a great football team, but do you know what they’ve been doing pretty well this season? Picking off passes. And do you know who comes into this game having thrown the second most interceptions in the league (five)? That’s right, this guy. And, OK, sure, four of those picks came in one really awful game that will be a good 10 days in the rearview by the time these teams take the field. So one doesn’t want to read too much into that one bit of information. But then, you know, you add in a bit of gimpiness for Matt Forte and things start to look at bit more even. I’m not sure the Rams can actually pull off an upset on the road, but I’m sure as hell not taking the Bears to win by better than a touchdown. Or even better than a field goal. More like a point, I think.

Tampa Bay (+8) at Dallas
Nine NFL teams, including the Giants, Patriots, Packers and Saints, have lost their home openers this season. As the last team in the league to host a game, the Cowboys have an opportunity to make it an even 10. Will they? No, probably not. Dallas by nine.

San Francisco (-6.5) at Minnesota
Some look at the fact that Christian Ponder currently leads the NFL with an unreal completion percentage of 75.8 as an indication that Ponder is headed for a breakout season. I look at that number, from a guy who completed just 54.3 percent of his throws a year ago, and think there’s a major correction on the way. This game may not bring Ponder all the way back down to earth — the Niners D has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete nearly 65 percent of their passes so far this season — but it will start the process. San Francisco by six.

Detroit (-3.5) at Tennessee
Man, 0-3 (and 0-2 at home) is a rough way to start a season. Lions by a touchdown.

Cincinnati (+3) at Washington
Going into the season, I was pretty sure the Bengals D would be at least solid, possibly excellent. I also thought RGIII‘s career would get off to a slow start. That’s a whole lot of wrong right there, isn’t it? Native Americans by 10.

NY Jets (-2.5) at Miami
The Jets may be playing their second consecutive road game, but I’m not sure that matters here. I kind of think, in fact, that you pretty much have to be outright jetlagged to lose to the Dolphins. Assuming their “quarterback” doesn’t find a way to give this one away, New Jersey should come out ahead by at least six.

Kansas City (+9) at New Orleans
The Chiefs, too, are on the road for the second straight week. Only with them, I think it makes a difference. That and, you know, the fact that Drew Brees has to start playing like Drew Brees sooner or later. This seems like a pretty good opportunity to me. Saints by 14.

Buffalo (-3) at Cleveland
This is a poser. I have no idea what to make of either of these teams. And there are two usual solutions to that problem. One is pick the home team. The other is pick the team that isn’t the Browns. Which brings us right back to square one. Aw, hell, I’m picking the not-Browns. Buffalo by a field goal.

Jacksonville (+3) at Indianapolis
Did you know that the Jaguars are the only team in the NFL that hasn’t allowed a passing touchdown yet this season? Of course, they’ve also surrendered more rushing TDs than any team other than the Saints. So you take the bad with the good, I suppose. And if this game were being played in Jacksonville, I’d look at the fact that the Colts don’t run the ball particularly well and figure the Jags could grab a win here. But it isn’t. And the thing is that preventing your opponent from scoring a lot of points is only part of the equation. You also have to be able to put some points on the board yourself. The Jaguars haven’t done much of that yet, and I’m not expecting that trend to reverse itself in a road game against a division rival. Colts win 13-10.

Philadelphia (-3.5) at Arizona
Quick: Who’s the most intercepted quarterback in football so far this season? That’s right, folks, he may having given up killing dogs, but Michael Vick just can’t quit killing drives. And the thing of it all is that the Cardinals don’t even need to pick you off to shut you down. I’d be willing to give three and half in this game, but not to Arizona. Cardinals by a touchdown.

Atlanta (+3) at San Diego
Yeah, OK, both of these teams come in at 2-0. But not all 2-0 records are created equal. I guess that’s my way of saying that I believe in the Falcons, but not the Chargers. And if they weren’t traveling on a short week, I’d believe in the Falcons in a major way. But they are. That’s why I’m only looking for Atlanta to win this game by three.

Houston (-2) at Denver
The Texans are the better team here. Probably by a good bit. But I’ve said before that I think the Broncos are going to be a very tough team to beat in their building (as usual) this season. And I’m sticking with that. Broncos by one.

Pittsburgh (-4) at Oakland
In an absolutely shocking development, the Raiders stink. Can’t score. Can’t stop their opponents from scoring. Can’t get out of their owned damned way. Stink. Steelers by 10.

New England (+3) at Baltimore
The Patriots inability to execute on offense against Arizona on Sunday was shocking and a bit scary. But the New England D looked great once again. And, as my Twitter (@SeanGlennon) acquaintance The Quant Coach pointed out to me earlier this week, they’re actually better than the Baltimore D. So considering that (and, in particular, the fact that the Ravens don’t seem able to stop the run), and given that I don’t see execution issues being a regular thing for the Patriots O, I’m gonna take New England to pull off the upset. I won’t be floored if it goes the other way, but I like the Pats to end up in another nail-biter, but this time to come out on top by a point.

Green Bay (-3) at Seattle
I know it looks like the Seahawks can beat the Packers. I just have a hard time imagining that they will beat the Packers. Mostly that’s because I’m entirely certain that Aaron Rodgers is a much better quarterback than his stats so far this season imply. Green Bay by seven.

You’d almost think than by week two one might have some sense of where things were going in the NFL. You’d be wrong. Or at least you would if you were thinking about me. I think I know less going into this week than I “knew” going into last. So that should make for some excellent picks, right? Here’s what not to expect.

Chicago  (+5.5) at Green Bay
I’m not giving five and a half here. OK, sure, I get it. The Bears aren’t the 49ers. The Packers most certainly aren’t the Colts. There’s precious little chance that Green Bay will allow itself not only to fall 0-2 (and what’s worse, 0-2 at home) but to do it with a loss to a division rival. And, setting aside what appear to be lingering issues on the defensive side of the ball, the Packers remain a team that put up 35 points per game last season (and 40 points per game at home). The Packers aren’t losing this game. But the Bears do bring in a fast, mean defense that may give the Packers O fits if Mike McCarthy and Tom Clements don’t figure out how to get their running game going. I can’t see Aaron Rodgers struggling two weeks in a row, so I have to believe the Packers are going to pull out a win. But I think the Bears will figure out how to hold the difference to three or  four.

Tampa Bay (+7.5) at NY Giants
Here’s another case of a team that’s simply not going to allow itself to drop two straight at home to start the season. The Giants have had 10 days to rest up from and stew over their opening night loss to the hated Dallas Cowboys. And, yeah, the Buccaneers at least appear to have an impressive defense, but I’m not sure playing the Giants in East Rutherford equates in any way to hosting the fairly one-dimensional Carolina Panthers. New Jersey should be able to get it together and pull off a win here, though I expect it will be by just slightly less than the seven and a half the Giants are giving. Let’s say six.

Arizona (+13.5) at New England
It’s way too early in the season to know anything for sure, but it certainly appeared last week that the Patriots had done much of the work needed to repair their soft defense of a season ago. It also looked like New England had figured out how to use the run game to take some of the pressure off Tom Brady. Most important, it appeared that the Cardinals were once again on the road to a second- or third-place finish in the weak NFC west. That’s not going to cut it when you face New England, particularly when you have to travel across the country to do it. And that’s the case no matter who you have taking snaps. I don’t like spreads this big, so I would never put real money on this, but I have to figure that if the Patriots can beat the Titans by 21 on the road, they can do at least two thirds as well against the Cardinals at home. I’ll take New England and give the points.

Minnesota (-1.5) at Indianapolis
Clearly there’s not as much of a difference between the Colts and the Jaguars this season as there has been for most of the past decade, but I’m still not taking a Minnesota squad that that barely held off Jacksonville in its own building to travel anywhere and beat anyone. Not even by a lousy point and a half. Andrew Luck has a much better outing than he had last week (he could scarcely do worse) and the Colts win by four.

New Orleans (-2.5) at Carolina
I can’t tell you whether Cam Newton‘s looking at a sophomore slump. I’m gonna need a few weeks on that. (Also, while I’m not going to assert that Newton had a great day against the Buccaneers last weekend, considering the fact that he got zero protection I’m certainly not about to say he was awful.) But here’s something I can tell you: No matter who’s coaching the Saints, there aren’t going to be a whole lot of games in which Drew Brees completes just 46 percent of his passes and throws  pair of picks. Certainly not two in a row. And if you can’t hold off the Bucs offense, you’re sure as hell not gonna hold off the Saints. New Orleans by a touchdown.

Kansas City (+3) at Buffalo
One of these teams is gonna take out a huge pile of week one disappointments on the other. I honestly don’t know which it will be, but I’m inclined to favor the one that didn’t let Mark Sanchez, a guy with a career passer rating of 74.2 and a career completion percentage of 56, get to 123.4 and 70, while allowing the Jets to hang 48 points on its supposedly formidable defense. But, hey, that’s just me. Chiefs by a field goal.

Baltimore (+2.5) at Philadelphia
You know, I understand that the Eagles were on the road and everything, but I still can’t stop thinking about how they struggled to beat the Browns last weekend. And I know it was just against the Bengals, but the Ravens looked really good on Monday night. So if it’s all the same to you, I think I’ll go with Baltimore straight up in this game. Short week for the Ravens, though, so maybe they only win by a point.

Oakland (-2.5) at Miami
No team could possibly be as bad as the Raiders looked on Monday, right? Well, except maybe for the Dolphins. They could potentially be even worse. But, you know, the crazy thing is, the Raiders are traveling across the country on a short week to play an early game. There’s nothing easy about that. Oakland’s also pretty banged up. And the Raiders will be wearing their black shirts in the midday sun with a projected high temperature of 86. Dolphins by three.

Cleveland  (+7) at Cincinnati
I was struggling to come up with something interesting about this game until I realized that there just isn’t anything interesting about this game. Bengals by 10.

Houston (-7.5) at Jacksonville
The Jaguars may or may not be worse than the Dolphins. Either way, it’s close. And I don’t care where this game’s being played, that’s gotta be good for more than seven and a half. Texans by 17.

Dallas (-3) at Seattle
The Cowboys are playing on extra rest. The Seahawks are … well, they’re the Seahawks, aren’t they? I mean, OK, I keep hearing that Seattle has a good team, but I’m not buying into that until I see it. Assuming Tony Romo can figure out a way to take snaps without incident, Dallas should roll. (Which will be totally awesome, because then we’ll get at least a solid week of talk about the Cowboys being Super Bowl bound.) Cowboys by nine.

Washington (-3) at St. Louis
Two huge road wins to open the season should really fire up the talk about Robert Griffin III turning the Native Americans into a championship team in his rookie season. And who knows, maybe he will. Maybe he really will change the game, too.  It’s been done once before. For now, though, I’m just gonna go with Washington by 10.

NY Jets (+6) at Pittsburgh
The Steelers don’t lose home openers. And Mark Sanchez isn’t having two straight career days. Pittsburgh by a touchdown.

Tennessee (+6) at San Diego
I can’t begin to guess whether what I saw on Monday night was about the Chargers being better than I expected or the Raiders being downright awful. But I have to believe that a defense that can contain Darren McFadden (on the ground, anyhow) can at least slow down Chris Johnson. And that’s what it takes to beat the Titans. San Diego wins straight up. It’s a push with the points.

Detroit (+6.5) at San Francisco
Just a couple of years ago, this would have been a game to dread. Now, it’s a great choice for prime time. Seems like a team that can take apart the Packers in Green Bay ought to be able to hold off the Lions at home. Especially if Calvin Johnson isn’t 100 percent. Right? San Francisco by a touchdown.

Denver (+3) at Atlanta
I said going into last weekend that I thought the Broncos would be a tough team to play at home (as usual) this season. If Peyton Manning can keep playing as well as he did against Pittsburgh, he may actually make Denver competitive on the road as well. But not enough to edge a team that brings as much to the field as the Falcons. Not yet, anyhow. Atlanta by six.

At last, the 2012 NFL season is here. I’ve waited an awful long time for the chance to be embarrassingly wrong about a whole big bunch of football games again. So let’s get to it. Here’s what not to expect.

Dallas (+3.5) at NY Giants
No one will be saying this tomorrow or next week — the talk will all be about how the defending champs just don’t lose the season opener — but sometime between eight and 17 weeks from now, folks are going to look back and opine that this is where it all started to unravel for the 2012 Cowboys. I don’t know if Amani Toomer’s claim that Tony Romo is a better QB than Eli Manning is correct (Romo certainly has better passing stats than Manning, but Eli does have those two rings) but what I do know is that Manning plays for a much better team. Most important for this game, and this season, Manning plays for a team with a mean pass rush, while Romo plays for a team with a highly suspect (this is putting it nicely) offensive line. That means sacks. With a quarterback who’s consistently exhibited poor decision making, it also most likely means picks. And those add up to a whole lot of ugly. I think the Cowboys are in for a long, ugly season, and I think it starts here with a blowout loss to the defending champs. Giants by 17.

Indianapolis (+9.5) at Chicago
It’s often said that the biggest challenge an NFL rookie faces is adjusting to the speed of the game. Just wait till young Andrew Luck gets a load of the fast, even by NFL standards, Chicago pass rush. That’s gonna be a baptism of fire. I still don’t have much faith in the Chicago offense, but even so, I think its reasonable to anticipate a 10-point Bears victory.

Philadelphia (-8.5) at Cleveland
The Browns may or may not be the worst team in the league. But they most certainly are the worst team in this game. By an awful lot. Like 14 points, maybe more.

Buffalo (+3) at NY Jets
Home field is only an advantage when the crowd’s on your side. New Jersey fans should have the Tebow chant going by halftime. Bills, 7-3.

Washington (+7) at New Orleans
RGIII will have his day (and soon enough) but it’s not gonna be this one. The Saints just have way too much to prove to let this game slip away. New Orleans by two touchdowns.

New England (-5.5) at Tennessee
The Patriots have one guy to stop in this game. I suppose you could say the same thing about the Titans. But it’s different. Different kind of guy. New England by nine.

Jacksonville (+3.5) at Minnesota
No, you’re wrong. There is someone who cares about this game. His name is Matt Barkley.

Miami (+12.5) at Houston
The only way the Texans win this game by fewer than 30 points is if they take their foot off the gas.

St. Louis (+7) at Detroit
I was just getting ready to write, “The Lions can’t lose this game and call themselves contenders,” when I realized that the last four words of that sentence are entirely unnecessary. Detroit by 13.

Atlanta (-3) at Kansas City
Forget the preseason, Romeo Crennel‘s gonna have his team ready to go. And the Falcons aren’t as good as you think they are. Chiefs by a field goal.

San Francisco (+5) at Green Bay
These two teams could very well meet again on January 20 with a trip to Super Bowl XLVII on the line. And if they do, there’s at least an even chance that the winner of this game will be the host on that day. So that’s not too much pressure for a season opener, is it? Here’s the deal: Green Bay’s offense is as good as it was last year; its defense is better. San Francisco’s defense is as good as it was last year; its offense looks like it’s better. This game is going to turn on one key mistake. And I just have to feel like the visiting squad will be the one to make it. Packers by three.

Carolina (-2.5) at Tampa Bay
Next week, you’ll hear folks talking about the result of this game and holding it up as evidence that Cam Newton and the Panthers are going to contend for a playoff spot. When that happens, try to keep in mind that the Panthers’ opponents were the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Carolina by six.

Seattle (-2.5) at Arizona
It could be worse. You could have to watch this game. Seahawks by a point.

Pittsburgh (+1.5) at Denver
The Steelers are probably the better team, but they’re not coming out ahead in this game. The Broncos are going to be a tough team to play in Denver all season. And Peyton Manning has something to prove in the home opener. Denver by three.

Cincinnati (+6) at Baltimore
If this game were in Cincinnati, I’d be tempted to pick the Bengals. No, really. I would. The Bengals may actually have the better defense in this match. And their offense is good enough to keep pace with a Ravens O that I expect to get off to a slow start. But the game isn’t in Cincinnati. So I’m not taking the Bengals. I’m taking the home team, though I expect them to win by just three or four.

San Diego (+1) at Oakland
I was going to predict an upset in this game right up until I discovered that the Raiders were favored. A long, difficult season for Philip Rivers begins with a long, difficult night in Oakland. Raiders, 17-9.

So here we go. The most pointless post of any given season on a blog wholly devoted to pointless posts. How’s that for a tease, huh?

Seriously, as I point out every single year, it’s pretty damned close to impossible to predict what’s likely to transpire in the NFL in a given week. Take the whole of a 17-week season, add a post-season that’s as unpredictable from week to week as any in professional sports (and that’s four months away), and the only thing trying to make predictions can possibly get you is outright humiliation. But I’m making my picks just the same. Just like I do every season. Because … I don’t know. Because it’s a thing that you do. Because it’s exciting to stand on the eve of a new football season, and that energy has to go somewhere. And because five months from today, when it’s the day after Super Bowl XLVII and I begin my countdown of the 213 days until the 2013 NFL season begins, either I’ll have got something right and I’ll feel pretty good about it or I’ll have been wrong and I’ll have forgotten about it. So, really, there’s nothing on the line here except your time. And I’m shockingly cavalier in my approach to that.

OK, then, let’s do this.

Regular Season Records
Even I’m not foolish enough to think I predict a team’s final record. Plus, really, it’s a lot of time looking over schedules ticking off wins and losses — all to be wrong. So I don’t. Instead, I will once again give an estimated range of how many games I think each team is likely to win. Even then, I’m going to be wrong about many, dreadfully wrong about a few. I can live with that.

AFC East

New England Patriots, 12-15
This is the same range of wins I predicted for the Pats last year. I should have been wrong then. A team with the 2011 New England D shouldn’t be good for more than 10 or 11 wins. But the Patriots had Tom Brady (the greatest quarterback in NFL history) to carry them on his shoulders. This year, Brady has more weapons on offense, and the Patriots appear to have a greatly improved defense. If the O line holds up (there are questions, but I suspect the line will be good enough) and Brady can stay healthy (these two things, obviously, are connected), the 2012 Patriots should be a better team than the one that went 13-3 and was a play away from winning Super Bowl XLVI in spite of its defensive deficiencies.

Buffalo Bills, 8-11
OK, I’m in, but not all the way. The Bills should be better on defense (especially up front where it matters most) and at least for the moment they’re healthier on offense. They’re also more experienced. That’s gotta be good for at least two more wins than they managed last year. And if everything goes right, they could come close to doubling their 2011 win total. That would probably be enough to earn them a spot in the post-season, maybe even the conference five seed. Which ain’t bad.

New York Jets, 4-7
Rex Ryan‘s been doing a lot of talking (really? Rex shooting his mouth off?) about how great his defense is going to be this season. He’d best be right, because his offense is going go be downright atrocious.

Miami Dolphins, 1-3
You know what’s a good thing to have in the age of the quarterback? Someone to catch the damned passes. Maybe next year, when Robert Woods is on the team.

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers, 9-12
The Steelers tried to fix their offensive line in the off-season. Unfortunately for them, some important fixes didn’t quite take. That might not kill them. Pittsburgh, as always, brings a bruising defense into the season. And the Steelers say they’re recommitted to the run, which should take some of the pressure off not only the line but Ben Roethlisberger. In the end, I think they take the division more because of what the other teams in the AFC North are missing than what the Steelers have to offer. But that’s OK. It’s just about getting into the tournament. After that, anything can happen.

Baltimore Ravens, 8-10
I agree (with Joe Flacco) that Joe Flacco is a better quarterback than he’s generally given credit for being. And, you know, that’s nice and all. We might even see the evidence of it if the Ravens’ O line can hold up (I suspect it will, at least most of the time). But when you’re built to win with defense and your defense has an off year, things have a way of going south in a hurry. The Ravens can challenge for the six seed, but I don’t see them playing too deep into January even if they make it.

Cincinnati Bengals, 7-10
The Bengals appear to have a hell of a defense. On offense, they could be slightly better than last year, or they could be slightly worse (depending on whether there’s a sophomore slump in store for Andy Dalton and/or A.J. Green). And that will be the difference between a push for the playoffs or a frustrating finish.

Cleveland Browns, 2-5
The Browns appear to have done a nice job of improving their offense in this year’s draft. Next year, maybe they can focus on D. This season should illustrate why a defense is a nice thing to have.

AFC South

Houston Texans, 12-14
The Texans were the best team in the AFC last season, right up until they weren’t. They’re probably better on both sides of the ball going into 2012 than they were this time a year ago. If that weren’t also true of New England, Houston might just have been in a position to run away with the conference. And who knows? They could do it anyhow.

Tennessee Titans, 6-8
The Titans are probably the second best team in the AFC South. So that’s, um, you know, nice. I suppose.

Indianapolis Colts, 5-7
The post-Peyton Colts appear to be headed in the right direction. But it’s a long road. And a young NFL team isn’t an easy thing to be.

Jacksonville Jaguars, 3-5
Maurice Jones-Drew is finally back with the team. That may very well prove to be the last thing the Jaguars or their fans have to get excited about until the 2013 draft.

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs, 8-11
I think the Chiefs are headed for the three or four seed (and a first-round exit from the playoffs, but that’s another story) in spite of what looks like a questionable defensive line. They’ve got enough offense that they should be able to put up points and overcome a certain amount of inconsistent play on D. They also have a secondary that should be able to help them cover up some of their issues up front (their linebackers also should help). Their deficiencies will catch up with them, of course, but not right away. Not in this division.

Denver Broncos, 7-10
Sure, Peyton Manning makes the offense instantly better. Maybe even good enough to steal the division title if the Broncos can catch the Chiefs napping. But a team without a pass rush is still a team that’s going to struggle. How much they’ll struggle really depends on whether Manning can stay healthy and whether the offense under his leadership can put up a lot of points.

San Diego Chargers, 5-7
The Chargers have some talented players, that’s for sure. But there aren’t enough of them, and the ones they have won’t be functioning in complete units on either side of the ball. That makes for sloppy football. And sloppy doesn’t succeed.

Oakland Raiders, 3-6
Like last year’s team, the 2012 Raiders may well realize some success within their relatively weak division. But you can only get so far on minor points of pride.

NFC East

New York Giants, 9-12
I don’t think the Giants are any better right now than they were a year ago. But neither are they any worse. And they’re at least somewhat healthier. Plus, they were good enough last season to, you know, win the damned league championship. If they suffer any kind of a hangover, the Giants will open a window for the Eagles to step up and take the division. If they hold it together, they’ve at least got a chance to win it all once again.

Philadelphia Eagles, 9-12
The Eagles ought to be the favorite to win this division. They’ve got plenty of talent on both sides of the ball. They’ve got what looks like an outstanding pass rush. They’re out from under the whole Dream Team nonsense that appeared to make 2011 too big for them. And yet … I’m not sure. It seems more and more like Michael Vick is one of those guys who’s just never gonna get all the way over the hump. (Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy, right?) And that’s a problem. Still, the Eagles should make the playoffs either as division champs (if the Giants let them take it) or as a wild card team. And maybe, just maybe, if they can get there, everything will break right.

Washington Native Americans, 5-8
Seventy-five years ago this season, playing their first season in DC, the former Boston Braves started a rookie passer who would change the course of NFL history. This season, the Native Americans start a rookie QB who will light up the highlight reels more than once. And by the end of the season, he’ll have us talking about Washington as strong contenders for 2013. But they’re not winning a championship in 2012.

Dallas Cowboys, 3-5
No D line. No O line. No dice.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers, 12-15
The Packers were probably the best team in the NFL last season (during the regular season, anyhow). They’re probably the best team in the NFL right now. And, barring catastrophic injury, probably the worst you’ll be able to say about them this year is that they don’t really run the ball all that well. Big deal. Let’s see if they can carry through January this time around.

Detroit Lions, 10-13
If the Lions were in the NFC South or West, they’d have a shot at a division championship and the conference two seed. But they’re not. So they’ll have to settle for the five seed. They should win their wild card round matchup easily. And they could prove dangerous in the divisional round. Honestly, I won’t be at all shocked if the Lions sneak into the Super Bowl.

Chicago Bears, 5-7
There are plenty of folks out there who think the Bears are poised to make a run at a wild card berth this year. I’m not one of them. I won’t be until the Chicago figures out how to field an offensive line.

Minnesota Vikings, 2-4
No one (or no one outside of Minnesota, anyhow) is expecting the Vikings to make a run at anything other than a top five draft pick. It’s hard to overcome an 0-6 record in your division. (OK, maybe they beat Chicago at home and get to 1-5. But you get the point.)

NFC South

New Orleans Saints, 10-12
Yeah, I get it. Bountygate and its fallout and blah, blah, blah. That’ll cost the Saints some wins. It’ll prevent them from getting the one seed and might even keep them from earning a first-round bye. But that’s about it. This team has way too much talent and way too big a chip on its shoulder to fall apart.

Atlanta Falcons, 9-11
I’m not sure anyone would be picking the Falcons to win the NFC South title if the Saints weren’t in such a state of turmoil (which is to say, I’m pretty sure no one would be picking the Falcons to win the division if the Saints weren’t in such a state of turmoil). But the Saints are in a state of turmoil. So that changes everything, right? Well, everything except the fact that the Falcons have issues on both lines. That doesn’t lead to success on the football field. Not over the long term, anyhow.

Carolina Panthers, 8-10
If the Falcons stumble (or, I suppose, if the Saints stumble) look for the Panthers to take advantage and fight their way into contention. They’ve certainly got enough talent to make a run. But I still feel like they’re a year away.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 2-5
You’ve got to think this is the end of the road for Josh Freeman. The only question, to my mind, is whether the Bucs will fare poorly enough to be able to replace him with Matt Barkley.

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers, 10-13
The 49ers may be a bit better than they were last season. Or they may be a bit worse. It all depends on what they get out of their new wide receivers (or, put another way, whether Alex Smith is able to get the ball to Randy Moss and Mario Manningham on a consistent basis), and whether Moss can hold off becoming a distraction for a full season. Either way, the Niners are taking no one by surprise this season. Which only means that they may not get the two seed and a bye. They’re winning the division. Because, let’s face it, it’s a one-team division to begin with.

Seattle Seahawks, 4-7
Some team is going to finish a meaningless second in this division. Might as well be the Seahawks, right?

Arizona Cardinals, 4-7
Or maybe it will be the Cardinals.

St. Louis Rams, 3-6
But it almost certainly won’t be the Rams.

Playoffs

Sure, why not? Because, you know, I totally predict now who’s gonna be playing well in January. Can’t everyone?

AFC
1. New England
2. Houston
3. Pittsburgh
4. Kansas City
5. Baltimore
6. Buffalo

NFC
1. Green Bay
2. NY Giants
3. San Francisco
4. New Orleans
5. Detroit
6. Philadelphia

Wild Card Playoffs

AFC
Baltimore defeats Kansas City
Pittsburgh defeats Buffalo

NFC
Detroit defeats New Orleans
San Francisco defeats Philadelphia

Divisional Playoffs

AFC
Pittsburgh defeats Houston
New England defeats Baltimore

NFC
NY Giants defeat San Francisco
Green Bay defeats Detroit

Conference Championships

AFC
New England defeats Pittsburgh

NFC
Green Bay defeats NY Giants

Super Bowl XLVII
New England defeats Green Bay, 31-28

And that’s exactly how it won’t ever happen in the 2012 NFL season.

NY Giants (+3) vs. New England Patriots
Anyone who tells you they know how this game is going to turn out — whether they’re guaranteeing a blowout or a narrow win — is engaging in pure bluster. This, as much as any Super Bowl I can remember, and surely as much as any matchup this season, is anybody’s game. I’ve spent two weeks looking at it from all kinds of angles and I can’t come to any other conclusion. It’s truly about which team executes better on the field Sunday. Does that mean it has to be a tight finish? No. It means that the game is going to be decided by one or two key mistakes — a missed block, a missed tackle, a special teams blunder, a running back putting the ball on the ground, a quarterback delivering it to a DB. If those mistakes simply stop the team that makes them from scoring, the final will be close. If they make it easy for the other team to put up seven, it could look like a blowout on the scoreboard. Simple.

So what about my whole thing with games being decided in the trenches? They are. And this one may well be. But you go ahead and tell me what that says about these two teams. The Giants have a formidable pass rush, but the Patriots have a rock-solid offensive line. Any ideas you read or hear (or have) about who’s gonna win that battle have little to do with the players on the field and lots to do with the desired outcome of the person, fan or professional, expressing them. So it remains true that the way to slow the Patriots offense in this game, as it was in Super Bowl XLII, is to get to Tom Brady. That’s great. Very helpful to know. Let’s see if they can do it. Same thing goes for the Patriots defensive front’s ability to get to Eli Manning. The New England DBs aren’t taking the Giants’ receivers out of this game any more than the New Jersey DBs were going to take the Pats receivers out the last time around. It doesn’t matter that the Pats have a “patchwork” secondary made up of guys who have changed position, street free agents, and a converted WR/return man (who was a converted quarterback before that). Because you could have Darrelle Revis and Nnamdi Asomugha out there for all it matters; if you let plays develop forever by failing to get to Manning, those excellent receivers are going to find a way to get open. While the Patriots defensive front inarguable has come on late in the season and is better than many yet realize, no one’s arguing that the Pats have as good a pass rush as they Giants do. But the Patriots pass rushers aren’t playing against the Giants pass rushers; they’re playing against a shaky New Jersey O line. That means they have as good a chance of getting to Manning as the Giants have of getting to Brady. They also have the slight advantage that comes from the fact that the Patriots offense operates underneath and inside the numbers whereas the Giants O is more reliant on bigger plays that take longer to develop.

If the quarterbacks can stay upright, this has the potential to become a very high scoring game. New England’s defense isn’t the weakness it’s perceived to be (yes the Pats gave up a lot of yards in the regular season, but they didn’t give up many points then and they haven’t in the playoffs) but it has been vulnerable to big plays, which can be trouble in a game like this against a team like the Giants. New Jersey, on the other hand, allowed more points per game than New England in the regular season (25 as compared to the Pats 21.4). The Giants, we keep hearing, have allowed just 13 points per game in the playoffs, which is great. But the Patriots have allowed only 15. So that’s an average over all games played of 23.1, and 20.7 allowed by New England, not much a shift in differential. And with a D that relies on pass rush because its linebackers and secondary are spotty, the Giants will quickly run into matchup issues if they can’t get to Brady.

Though you’d hardly know it from all the talk about the Giants being the more balanced team (and from all the experts picking New Jersey to win), the Pats come out ahead in the bulk of statistical comparisons. As discussed above, the Giants by and large allow more points. And while Giants supporters will point to the averages allowed in the playoffs as evidence that the newly healthy New Jersey D puts the lie to its regular season numbers, one might argue that if you want to segment things like that you ought to do it for both teams. That means looking at the playoff rounds in which both teams have participated (the Pats earned a first-round bye; the Giants did not, though they effectively got one when their wild card opponents, the Atlanta Falcons, failed to show up). Over those two weeks, the Giants scored 57 points and allowed 37, while the Patriots scored 68 and allowed 30. I’m not going to argue that those are meaningful numbers for comparison, however. Two games don’t constitute a trend. I think you have to go back to the complete numbers.

In the regular season, the Patriots put up 32.1 points per game; the Giants scored 24.6. Bring in post season numbers and you get to 32.3 and 25. The Patriots outgained the Giants in the air and on the ground in both the regular season and the playoffs. (It’s particularly notable, that the Giants managed only 89 rushing yards per game in the regular season. They’ve done significantly better than that in the post-season, but they accomplished their 117 yards per game average entirely by running all over the Falcons.) On D, as noted, the Pats allowed more yards (though fewer rushing yards) and fewer points per game in the regular season. Factoring in the post season, New England still has allowed fewer points per game. The Patriots also have allowed more total yards, more yards through the air, and fewer on the ground. The Giants registered 48 regular season sacks to the Patriots’ 40. In the post-season, the Giants have nine sacks over three games, while the Pats have eight over two. The advantage there still belongs to New Jersey. The Patriots had a regular season takeaway-giveaway differential of +17; the Giants came in at +7. Factoring in the playoffs, things get a good bit tighter, but the Pats still come out ahead, with a +14 to the Giants’ +12.

That stuff’s all great to think about, but none of it points to one of these teams dominating the other. Nor does it point to any kind of outcome you can consider likely. And that gets me back to this: One of these teams is going to make a crucial error, maybe two, and that’s going to make the difference in this game. There’s no way to predict, with two teams that play a highly disciplined style of football, where the mistakes are going to show up.  That means there’s no way to predict with certainty how this thing is gonna turn out.

Of course, I’m here to make a prediction, so that’s what I’m gonna do. And since I have nothing left to do but pick with my heart, I’m taking the Patriots. I’ll go with the score from the last time the Pats came out on top in a game with the Giants: 38-35.

I can’t wait for these two games. I think both are going to be compelling, close and hard-fought. And that, of course, means we’re in for a pair of blowouts. Here’s what not to expect.

Baltimore (+7.5) at New England
I’ve had my doubts for a very long time about the notion that defense wins championships (or defense wins in the post-season, or defense wins football games — however you want to put it). Sometimes it does. And sometimes it doesn’t. On the other hand, I believe firmly that football games are won and lost in the trenches. It’s true more often than not in the regular season and it’s true more and more often the deeper you get in the post-season. Because you reach a point when every team that’s still playing brings a lot of talent to the field. You can spend your life trying to figure out which receivers are going to beat which DBs more of the time. You can measure quarterback against quarterback. You can talk about what happens when running backs break into the open field. And there’s some value in all of it. But if you just want to get down to the difference between likely winners and likely losers, the place you want to look is line play.  And line play is what’s going to make the difference in this game. If the Baltimore defensive front can break through the New England offensive line and harass Tom Brady, it’ll go a long way to evening out the gap between the most and least productive offenses left in the post-season. If it can’t, which is to say if New England’s excellent O line performs to its usual high level, there’s not a lot the Ravens will be able to do to keep Brady and his receivers from picking up yards and putting up points. Baltimore can’t survive a shootout. Likewise, the New England defensive front is going to have to find a way to stuff the run and prevent the Ravens from putting the game on Ray Rice’s shoulders. Because if the Ravens can use Rice to chew up yards and clock, their defense won’t need to work nearly as hard to contain Brady. So with that, it should be easy to figure out where this game is going, right? Yeah, not so much. It’s strength against strength. The Pats do a great job of protecting their QB; the Ravens to a great job of getting to opposing quarterbacks. The Patriots defense, which has come on since late in the season, tends to give up yards in the passing game, but has been effective against the run; the Ravens’ ground game is the strength of their offense. Something’s gotta give. And I can’t for the life of me figure out what that’s gonna be. So I’ll fall back on this: If every player on all four lines plays to the  best of his abilities — which is what you have to assume given the stakes and the fact that both teams have made it this far — the Patriots have a slight advantage. Because New England’s offense moves the ball with precision and scores fast, and because the Patriots have displayed more versatility, both of which position them better to capitalize on the plays that go according to plan, and compensate for those that don’t. The Patriots also are at home, which isn’t that much of an advantage given the level of the competition, but it’s something. So I’ll take New England straight up, but I’m not giving seven and a half. I’ll call it Patriots by a field goal.

NY Giants (+2) at San Francisco
I rarely guarantee anything, but I can guarantee you the 49ers are winning this game. How can I be so sure? Easy: Because I’m picking the Giants. And the Giants always do exactly the opposite of what I predict. So there you go. Thing is, I could easily have picked it the other way. I mean, hey, the the Niners are a formidable team. The 14.3 points per game San Francisco’s defense allowed during the regular season was the second best average in the league (trailing only Pittsburgh’s 14.2). And, sure, they gave up 32 last weekend, but that was to the most productive offense in the NFL, a unit that put up 34.2 a game in the regular season. Plus, the Giants are playing their second straight long-distance road game, and winning on the road against good teams two weeks in a row has never been an easy thing to manage. But the Giants have something that the Niners lack, and that the New Orleans Saints lacked: balance. New Jersey doesn’t give you the level of offensive production New Orleans does, but they’ve managed 30.5 points a game thus far in the post-season. And they posted 37 last weekend in Green Bay. They have three talented wide receivers and a quarterback who’s smart enough not to throw the ball away and patient enough to hang on and find the open man. And while the Giants D was average at best through most of the regular season, it came on as it got healthy late in the campaign. The New Jersey defense has allowed just 20 points in the playoffs, all of them to a Green Bay offense that put up 35 a game in the regular season (the only two points given up to Atlanta in its wild card round trouncing in East Rutherford came on a safety, and there’s no holding a defense accountable for that). I can’t see the Giants scoring 32 against the Niners, but neither can I see them giving up 36. More like 20 and 13, I think. So I’ll take New Jersey and give the two. And that means San Francisco’s winning it for sure.