This Football Blog

Well, I called the upset on Thursday night OK. So that should be it for me and getting anything right this week. Here’s what no to expect today and tomorrow.

San Diego (+3) at Tennessee
Traveling across (or very nearly across) the country for a second week in a row won’t be easy on the Chargers. Neither will the Titans defense. Tennessee by a touchdown.

Cleveland (+7) at Minnesota
Two games in and the Browns have called it a season. That’s gotta be some kind of new record, right? I’m sure it’s doing absolute wonders for team morale. Vikings by 20.

Tampa Bay (+7) at New England
The over/under on this game is 44. Who they hell is Vegas kidding? The two defenses have allowed a combined average of 33.5 per game. And neither team has anything even approaching a complete offense. I’ll be mildly surprised if the total points in this one gets above 30. The Patriots are at home, and they at least have a quarterback (it would be helpful if they also had more than one healthy guy who could catch a ball, but so it goes), so I’ll take them to win. But not by a touchdown. New England 17-13.

Houston (-2) at Baltimore
The Ravens just don’t have it in them to slow down the Texans’ passing attack. Houston by a touchdown.

St. Louis (+3.5) at Dallas
Neither of these teams is going anywhere. That’s about all I can say for sure. And if I were smart, I’d take the home favorite straight up and think about taking the visitors to cover. But I’m not smart. And I simply can never trust a team that believes in Tony Romo. So let’s go with the outright upset. Rams by a field goal.

Arizona (+7.5) at New Orleans
Drew Brees has thrown as many interceptions to this point in the season as he has touchdowns (three each). That’s a statistical anomaly for Brees, and I expect it’s going to get corrected over the balance of the season. That’s too bad for the Cardinals, too, because they’re not winning this game without creating a few turnovers. But who knows, maybe they’ll force a few fumbles. I mean, I’m not staking anything on the possibility, but it could happen. Maybe. Then again, probably not. Saints by 10.

Detroit (pick ’em) at Washington
A second straight road game for the Lions, who suffered a tough loss in Arizona last weekend. Plus, while Reggie Bush may play, he certainly won’t be operating at full speed. If I thought the Racists could get out of their own damned way, I’d pick them without reservation. But I don’t think Washington can do much of anything well right now. So while I’m still picking the home team, I’m doing it with serious reservations. Washington by a single point.

Green Bay (-3) at Cincinnati
There’s a little voice in the back of my head screaming about how the Bengals are going to win this game. But there’s a bigger voice in the front of my head that looks at the Packers offense and screams back (more loudly), “Shut up. No they’re not.” I’m riding with the big voice, partially because he scares me a little. Green Bay wins it straight up. It’s a push with the points.

NY Giants (-1.5) at Carolina
Eli Manning is on track to throw an NFL record-shattering 56 interceptions this season. That won’t hold up, of course, though Eli does look like he’s going to push to top his personal high of 25 in a season (2010). Despite that, and despite the not-unrelated fact that the Giants have given up more points than any other team in the NFL this season, I still see New Jersey as the better squad in this matchup. Because, yes, I know, I’m delusional. Still and all, Giants by four.

Atlanta (+3) at Miami
I agree with the common perception that Miami’s defense — particularly its sacktacular pass rush — will make things very tough on Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense. I’m not so sure I agree with the notion that making things very tough equates to shutting things down. I suspect the Falcons will pull out a win here. Atlanta by three.

Indianapolis (+10) at San Francisco
The Colts may have a shiny new running back (exact level of shininess to be determined), but he’s not going to win them this game. These 49ers don’t lose two straight. And the Colts don’t have enough defense to change that. Niners by 14.

Jacksonville (+19.5) at Seattle
I wonder if the Seahawks, who are coming off a Sunday night beatdown of the division rival 49ers, will be able to care enough about this game to bury the Jaguars the way they probably should. I’m taking Seattle straight up, of course, because the Jags look to me like a team headed for 0-16. But I’ll take Jacksonville to cover. Barely. Seattle by 17.

Buffalo (+2.5) at NY Jets
Neither of these teams is very good. So when I say the Bills are better than the Jets, you understand that what I really mean is less bad, right. Less bad Buffalo wins the turnover battle by one and the game by three.

Chicago (-2) at Pittsburgh
In which Ben Roethlisberger throws no fewer than two picks, one of which goes for six the other way. Chicago 23-6.

Oakland (+15.5) at Denver
Maybe the best thing you can say about the Raiders is that they might not be as bad as everyone expected. Or if you just wanted to focus on the positive, you could point out that the Oakland D has done a pretty good job of getting to opposing quarterbacks. The Raiders have logged nine sacks over their first two games. That’s troublesome news if you’re a team for which protecting the quarterback is even more important than usual and that just lost another key piece of its offensive line. It doesn’t add up to an Oakland upset, mind you, but it might keep it closer than expected. Denver by 13.

So, yeah, I’m not getting through all 16 games before kickoff tonight. And, really, I don’t know how much of any value I have to say about tonight’s game. But I’ll say it anyhow. Because who’s gonna stop me?

Kansas City (+3) at Philadelphia
So the question everyone seems to be asking about this game is, how is Kansas City’s offense going to put up enough points to stay in it? It’s the wrong question, and it’s based on the flawed assumption that Chip Kelly‘s system has to succeed in the NFL. It doesn’t. And, while the Eagles sure look fast, a 1-1 record built on a narrow victory over a hobbled and rusty Washington Racists squad followed by a full-on collapse at home against the mighty San Diego Chargers isn’t anything anyone should get excited about. The Eagles have no defense. None. And an offense that runs around like crazy isn’t going to change that. The Chiefs, on the other hand, have a defense. It’s a defense that former Eagles coach Andy Reid built, in part, to stop offenses like Kelly’s. Kansas City also has an offense that’s capable of putting up points, particularly when they face soft Ds like Philly’s. Chiefs in the “upset.” By a touchdown.

I think I know a little more this week than I did last. Or I don’t. My top talent as a prognosticator remains my ability to pretend after the fact that I knew something all along. (Bet you don’t know anyone else like that, huh?) Still, if Rex Ryan can continue to charge into this season in the face of certain failure, so can I. Here’s what not to expect in week two.

NY Jets (+11.5) at New England
I don’t know what to make of this damned game. Sure, the Jets are completely awful and insanely lucky to have come away from their home opener with a win over a Tampa team of questionable ability. And, yeah, Tom Brady never has two bad games in a row. But, um, to whom is Brady going to throw the ball? Julian Edelman? Like, all night? So, OK, the Patriots defense ought to be able to handle what the Jets are trying to pass off as an offense, but is the New England D going to put up a few scores? Because if you’re going to win a football game, someone, at some point, has to put points on the board. I’ll be interested to see how the Pats handle this situation, and perhaps as impressed as I’ve ever been if Brady manages as much as 20 completions and 200 passing  yards (which, incidentally, would be his least productive outing in just less than two years). I can’t see the Jets leaving Foxborough with a win, but I’m not giving anything close to eleven and a half points. I’ll go with New England by six, 19-13.

San Diego (+7.5) at Philadelphia
I’m sure traveling across the country on a short week to face an offense that would have their D completely gassed by the end of the first quarter under the best of circumstances is going to work out just swimmingly for the Chargers. Just, just … swimmingly. Eagles by 24. Minimum.

Cleveland (+6.5) at Baltimore
So far this season, the Ravens defense has given up an average of seven touchdowns per game. Try as they might, I think they’ll only be able to cut that average in half this week. (You see what I did there?) Baltimore by 20.

Tennessee (+9) at Houston
Let’s figure the Texans are still catching their breath after needing a furious second half to overcome the Chargers on Monday night. And let’s assume the Titans defense really is what it appeared to be at Pittsburgh. That should mean Tennessee keeps it closer than nine. Maybe more like six or seven? So let’s say Houston wins 23-17.

Miami (+2.5) at Indianapolis
Andrew Luck took four sacks, losing 31 yards, last Sunday vs. Oakland. The Miami defense, meanwhile, chased down Brandon Weeden six times for 45 yards in their road win over Cleveland. Might not mean much. Playing on the road two weeks in a row is always tough. And the Colts aren’t the Browns (though, then again, neither are the Dolphins the Raiders). Or maybe it means it’s going to be a long, difficult day for Luck. I’m picking the upset. Because why not? Dolphins by a field goal.

Carolina (-3) at Buffalo
The Bills had a chance to pull off a huge upset last weekend and let it slip away. A win here over yet another visiting favorite would be far less meaningful, which I suppose is nice since they’re not going to get it. Panthers by four.

St. Louis (+6.5) at Atlanta
The Falcons need to get right. The Rams are due to come back to earth. In the NFL, things are never really that simple, except for how sometimes they kind of are. Atlanta by a touchdown.

Washington (+7.5) at Green Bay
I don’t know if anyplace does prop bets on total sacks, but I’m thinking six, split evenly between the two defenses. I’m also thinking that Aaron Rodgers playing at home is the quarterback most likely to rise above. Packers by four.

Dallas (+3) at Kansas City
Eli Manning may have put up 450 passing yards and four TDs Sunday night, but he also out-Romoed Tony Romo, making a series of stupid mistakes that effectively handed the Cowboys a win. Alex Smith won’t put up the big numbers, but he also won’t commit the big blunders. Chiefs by seven.

Minnesota (+6) at Chicago
Two words: Christian Ponder. Bears win by 14 on the strength of two pick sixes.

New Orleans (-3.5) at Tampa Bay
Three and a half? Really? Maybe that’s on the assumption that the Buccaneers won’t shoot themselves in the foot at home. The only thing is, they won’t need to. Saints by 10.

Detroit (-1.5) at Arizona
I don’t expect Carson Palmer to survive this game. Lions by a touchdown.

Jacksonville (+5.5) at Oakland
Imagine if you lived in Jackonville and — on top of, you know, living in Jacksonville — this was the only game you could get on TV Sunday at 4. How awful would that be? Oakland by 17. That’s right. The Raiders. By 17. Because the Jags really are that bad.

Denver (-4.5) at NY Giants
It’s not about Peyton vs. Eli. It’s about the teams around the two quarterbacks. And in a lot of ways, it’s about a defense that allowed Tony Romo to complete 74 percent of his passes on Sunday night trying to figure out how to stop Peyton Manning, who’s playing on 10 days rest. You know just as well as I do how that turns out. Denver by 13.

San Francisco (+3) at Seattle
All I can say with confidence is that this should be one hell of a battle. And that I’m glad it’s on in prime time. I’ll take the home team to edge out a win, but only by a point.

Pittsburgh (+7) at Cincinnati
Something tells me this whole not having a center thing is going to prove troublesome for the Steelers. Just a hunch. Bengals by 12.

OK, so the Ravens weren’t able to keep it close on Thursday night after all. I knew Baltimore wouldn’t have last year’s defense on the field. Just didn’t know how great the drop off would be. Let’s see how wrong I am about every other team in the NFL. Here’s what not to expect in the rest of week one.

New England (-10) at Buffalo
Yes, yes, yes. Tom Brady has a whole new group of receivers and what’s he going to be able to accomplish and all that. Very nice. Let’s talk about it in week three when the Patriots play a team that’s in a position to beat them. Right now what matters is that the Bills are depleted, banged up, and starting a rookie quarterback who missed the last two weeks of the preseason with an injury. That’s not what one calls starting from a strong position. Even running the ball on something like 60% of their offensive snaps, New England wins by no fewer than 17.

Tennessee (+6.5) at Pittsburgh
The Titans may well be headed in the right direction while the Steelers are either going the opposite way or standing still. But these teams won’t pull even for a while yet. Pittsburgh by a touchdown.

Atlanta (+3) at New Orleans
Green Bay at San Francisco is clearly the game of the day, but this is easily the game of the early afternoon. Over/under is 55 and if I were betting (which I’m not), I’d be betting the over big. New Orleans gets the ball last and wins it by a point.

Tampa Bay (-3.5) at NY Jets
Giving three and a half to Tampa in your home opener? Looking good, Rex. Looking real good. Bucs by a field goal.

Kansas City (-3.5) at Jacksonville
The Chiefs have a quarterback. I think. Which is more than anyone can even consider saying about the Jaguars.

Cincinnati (-3) at Chicago
I know the games in Chicago, which is a famously tough place to play, and all. But the Bengals are simply better than the Bears by a good bit more than three points. Cincinnati by 14.

Miami (+1.5) at Cleveland
It’s hard to break your fans’ hearts when expectations are consistently low. So the Browns are going to have to artificially raise them. This seems like a good game to start with. Cleveland by four.

Seattle (-3) at Carolina
I’ve said already that I expect the Seahawks to fall apart under the weight of Russell Wilson‘s stature. But not today. Wilson’s too smart, and his team is too talented and too well coached, to lose to the Panthers. Even cross-country travel won’t change that (though it might slow things down a bit). Seattle by six.

Minnesota (+4) at Detroit
At some point, Adrian Peterson is going to figure out (for real) that no matter how great he may be, his team can’t succeed with Christian Ponder behind center. And then all hell’s gonna break loose. Lions by three.

Oakland (+10.5) at Indianapolis
So what do you think, Mr. Clowney? Are you ready to be an Oakland Raider? Colts by 14.

Arizona (+4.5) at St. Louis
In which it starts to become clear that Carson Palmer, in fact, is not going to save the Cardinals. St. Louis by six.

Green Bay (+4.5) at San Francisco
Is it possible that this week one game might not only preview the NFC Championship but determine where that late-January meeting takes place? Absolutely. These are both terrific football teams that should be in the hunt from end to end as long as they stay healthy. Still and all, I suspect both offenses may have some difficulty getting started. The Packers’ O line is going to have a hard time keeping Aaron Rodgers upright. And Colin Kaepernick is going to have difficulty finding open targets. The 49ers are better positioned to overcome their offensive obstacles today, so I’ll take them to win. But I’m thinking the difference works to to something more like a field goal.

NY Giants (+3.5) at Dallas
I know the Giants have their problems — on O line, along the defensive front, at running back …  — but I’m pretty sure the Cowboys are still relying on Tony Romo at quarterback. And that’s all that really matters. New Jersey by a pick six.

Philadelphia (+3.5) at Washington
I keep hearing about how Michael Vick is the perfect quarterback to execute Chip Kelly‘s offense. So I guess I’ll look forward to seeing the Eagles in the Rose Bowl. Meanwhile, since RG3 is sort of healthy for now, I’ll take the Racists to win this one by a touchdown.

Houston (-4) at San Diego
I like the scheduling strategy on display here. If you’re going to have the last game of week one kick off at 10:20 p.m. Eastern, you might as well make it a game that’s likely to be over by halftime. Or perhaps by the end of the first quarter. Texans by 20.

It’s kind of shocking, when you consider that I count down the days starting 12 second after the Super Bowl ends, the way the first game of every NFL season somehow manages to sneak up on me. But it does. And it did. Which is why I haven’t finished my picks for week one. (Even though, hell, I don’t know what I’m talking about in week one anyhow.) So here’s a start. And I’ll have to get to the rest later.

Baltimore (+7.5) at Denver
I’m sure sports fans in Baltimore are just beside themselves with delight at the fact that the Ravens are starting their title defense on the road so that the Orioles can continue their ongoing slide out of wild card contention at home. Even better, they get to see their Ravens travel to a city where road teams almost never win. Still, I’m not sure all hope is lost for Baltimore. No one’s talking much about it, but the Broncos aren’t as solid on the offensive line as Peyton Manning would probably like them to be. And that’s not a great position to be in with whoops-he’s-not-a-Bronco-anymore Elvis Dumervil, Terrell Suggs, Haloti Ngata and Chris Canty coming to town. I expect to see Manning get chased around more than a bit tonight — and to make some mistakes and get that frustrated Peyton expression as a result. I also expect the Ravens offense to be able to get some things done against an undermanned Denver D. Does that mean I think the Ravens pull off the upset? I don’t know. Opening game in Denver; that’s a tough row to hoe. I won’t be shocked if Baltimore comes out with a win, but I’m expecting to see Denver pull out a tight one. Let’s say Broncos by a field goal.

I wasn’t going to do season predictions for 2013.

Because why bother? In early September no one has any idea what the NFL landscape is going to look like in early October, let alone early February. So what’s the point?

But I’m mentally ill or something. Can’t stop thinking, “You do it every year.” So with hours to go before the season get under way, here we go. Down and dirty.

(As always, I’m not doing the predicting final records thing. That’s too absurd even for my diseased brain. So once again, I’ll give an estimated range of how many games I think each team is likely to win. Even then, I’m going to be wrong more often than I’m right.)

AFC East

New England Patriots, 11-13
Yeah, lots of new faces on offense. But the guy lining up behind center is still Tom Brady (still the greatest quarterback in NFL history). And the defense should be better. And the AFC East is still a giant bloody mess. I’m thinking 6-2, possibly 5-3 over the first eight games while they feel their way around the new offense, and 7-1, possibly 6-2, over the second half of the season. That should be good for a division title and quite possibly a bye week.

Miami Dolphins, 5-7
The Dolphins look to me like the second best team in the division. They’re certainly headed in the right direction, building a team around Ryan Tannehill.  But they’re not as far along as some seem to think. And quarterbacks are prone to sophomore slumps.

Buffalo Bills, 3-6
The Bills have some growing still to do.

New York Jets, 3-5
So long, Rex.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens, 10-12
It’s all about Joe Flacco in Baltimore this season. The defense isn’t carrying the team this year. Either Flacco’s doing it, or it’s not getting done. My money’s on Flacco doing it.

Cincinnati Bengals, 9-12
The Bengals are the team just about everyone’s picking to carry the AFC North this season. And there’s good reason for that. They were good enough to qualify for the playoffs a year ago, and they’ve improved over the off-season. Second-round draft pick Giovani Bernard is going to be a beast. And the D should be formidable. But I’m not going to believe in Andy Dalton until Andy Dalton gives me really good reason to believe. So I’m hedging and saying wild card again.

Pittsburgh Steelers, 7-9
The Steelers are supposed to be back in the mix this season. I’m not sold. I think they’re headed for another middling season.

Cleveland Browns, 4-5
You can count on the Browns to win four or five games every season. Must make it thrilling to be a sports fan in Cleveland.

AFC South

Houston Texans, 11-13
Another impressive season. Another AFC South title. And another spectacular mid-January collapse.

Indianapolis Colts, 8-10
The Colts never looked like an 11-5 team to me last season, even when they got to 11-5. This season they take somewhere between a half step and a full step back.

Tennessee Titans, 7-8
The Titans are probably a better team this season than they were last. By a win. Maybe two.

Jacksonville Jaguars, 1-4
Yup. It’s the Jaguars.

AFC West

Denver Broncos, 10-12
Have  you heard? This is the season when Peyton Manning is going to lead the Broncos to the Super Bowl (as opposed to choking majorly in his first playoff game — because, you know, that was such a fluke for him). I’ll be interested to see if Manning manages to survive the first part of the season, playing behind a center who is unproven to say the least. Assuming he does, and figuring in the six gift victories the Broncos get by playing in the AFC West, which is every bit as much of a mess as the AFC East, I can’t see how Denver fails to win its division. After that, I’m not so sure.

Kansas City Chiefs, 6-9
I suppose there’s something to be said for being the second best team in the AFC West. I’m just not sure what that something might be.

San Diego Chargers, 4-6
The Chargers can be thankful, at the very least, that they’re not the Raiders. Which is to say, they at least have hope that they can blow it all up at the end of the season and start rebuilding.

Oakland Raiders, 2-4
The Raiders can’t be thankful that they’re not the Raiders.

NFC East

New York Giants, 9-12
If I thought Robert Griffin III had the remotest chance of surviving the season, I’d be picking Washington to win the NFC East. But he doesn’t. So I’m taking the best team in the division with a quarterback who doesn’t expose himself to a demolition derby on every snap.

Washington Racists, 4-13
Pretty wide range, I know. RG3 stays healthy, the Racists are the classless class of the division. He goes down, it’s a horror show. And he’s going down. The question is when.

Philadelphia Eagles, 6-8
I’ve got this crazy thing about NFL teams needing to have quarterbacks.

Dallas Cowboys, 4-7
Or, let me restate that, I’ve got this crazy thing about NFL teams needing to have good quarterbacks.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers, 12-14
You know that thing I was just saying about quarterbacks? Yeah.

Minnesota Vikings, 7-9
Like, sometimes, even when you have maybe one of the all-time greatest running backs, not having a good quarterback can drag you down.

Chicago Bears, 6-8
You can even have a killer running back and a stout defense and have your legs cut out from under you by an unreliable quarterback.

Detroit Lions, 6-8
Or you could have a quarterback and an amazing wide receiver, and maybe a player or two on defense. But you have to build a team around them, or you end up stumbling there, too.

 

NFC South

New Orleans Saints, 11-13
The Falcons are supposed to win the NFC South. But the Saints are going to win the NFC South. Because … yep, quarterback. Matt Ryan‘s really good, but Drew Brees is better. It’s not really that simple, except for how it kind of is.

Atlanta Falcons, 10-12
What I just said.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 6-8
People keep telling me Josh Freeman is better than I think he is. And then I watch Freeman play and I’m certain that he’s exactly as good as I think he is, which is to say he’s average most of the time, good some of the time, and awful too much of the time. What’s the word I’m looking for? Oh, right, it’s uneven. Consistently inconsistent, if you prefer.

Carolina Panthers, 2-6
I like Cam Newton as a football player. But he’s one football player. Not 11. And certainly not 22.

 

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers, 9-12
I don’t think the 49ers need to worry about a Super Bowl hangover. I think they need to worry about a dropoff in talent at the wide receiver position. They’re not as talented a team as they were last season and they’re not taking anyone by surprise. That said, I don’t buy into the notion that the Seahawks are poised to unseat the Niners. I think San Francisco still edges out a division title.

Seattle Seahawks, 8-10
Sooner or later, Russell Wilson‘s height is going to catch up with him. I’m thinking it starts in the second half of this season.

Arizona Cardinals, 6-8
Carson Palmer hasn’t been anything more than an OK-ish quarterback for about five years now. Not sure why everyone seems to believe another change of scenery is likely to change that.

St. Louis Rams, 5-7
The Rams certainly appear to be headed in the right direction. They’ve got some distance to travel still, though.

Playoffs

Sure, why not? Because, you know, I totally predict now who’s gonna be playing well in January. Can’t everyone?

AFC
1. Houston
2. New England
3. Baltimore
4. Denver
5. Cincinnati
6. Indianapolis

NFC
1. Green Bay
2. New Orleans
3. San Francisco
4. NY Giants
5. Atlanta
6. Seattle

Wild Card Playoffs

AFC
Baltimore defeats Indianapolis
Denver defeats Cincinnati

NFC
San Francisco defeats Seattle
Atlanta defeats NY Giants

Divisional Playoffs

AFC
Denver defeats Houston
New England defeats Baltimore

NFC
New Orleans defeats San Francisco
Green Bay defeats Atlanta

Conference Championships

AFC
New England defeats Denver

NFC
Green Bay defeats New Orleans

Super Bowl XLVIII
New England defeats Green Bay

And there you have it. The 2013 NFL season just as it won’t happen.

San Francisco (-4) vs. Baltimore
Officially, I have no rooting interest in this game. And, in reality, my evening is going to turn out just the same no matter how it goes. Give me a close, hard-fought game with some spectacular moments on both sides of the ball and both sides of the field and I’ll be just as happy no matter which team ends up hoisting the Lombardi.

That’s freeing in a way. It’s also at least partially BS. Because when it comes right down to it, I really don’t want to see Ray Lewis get another ring. (Honestly, what I’d like to see Lewis get is an extended prison sentence, but that’s not gonna happen.) Before he cheated his way back onto the field, it was impossible not to respect Lewis as an athlete. That’s fine, I suppose (or maybe it isn’t; we’ll see where things go). But there’s also the fact that Lewis is and has been a duplicitous, self-aggrandizing douchebag of the highest order. He’s the kind of guy you want to see fail, and fail spectacularly. If I could write a script for this game, it would end with Frank Gore running directly over Lewis into the end zone to put the winning points on the board for San Francisco on the final play of the game (let’s say fourth and goal from the three or something like that). And, yeah, I get that the 49ers aren’t exactly asshole-free, but the thing is, if the Niners win, no one (no one) is going to pretend that Chris Culliver is the reason for the win. So … you see what I’m saying?

Anyway, I suppose that’s all neither here nor there, except to say that I’ve probably been looking for reasons to believe San Francisco will come out on top.

Here’s what I see: I don’t think either team has an advantage in the trenches. I’m certain that neither has a real advantage in the running game. Baltimore certainly has an edge in special teams, but unless this comes down to a field goal attempt (it could), I’m not sure that’s likely to be the deciding factor.

I think it comes down to the passing game. And there I think the Niners have a decided edge. Not because I have great faith in Colin Kaepernick, who has been great, but who is starting just his tenth NFL game on a very big stage. And not because I lack faith in Joe Flacco (though I’ll believe he’s capable of turning in an exceptional effort for the fourth straight game for the first time in his career when I see it). It’s simply because I think the Niners have a better chance of shutting down the Ravens deep-ball oriented passing game than the Ravens have of taking away the 49ers ability to chew up the middle of the field. The Ravens have struggled to stop tight ends. (I suspect that if Rob Gronkowski had been on the field for the AFC Championship, we’d be preparing for a different Super Bowl.) And I’m not sure Baltimore can take steps to limit the damage San Francisco can do in their two tight end sets without opening themselves up to get killed by Kaepernick, Gore and Michael Crabtree (not to mention, you know, Randy Moss, who isn’t the greatest wide receiver ever, but is probably the most gifted, and who can still punish you if you give him a tenth of a chance).

In the end, I just think the Niners have more options on offense than the Ravens, which means the Ravens’ tough defense has a more difficult task than the 49ers’ tough defense. I suspect the game will be close at least through most of the third quarter, but when the confetti comes down, I think it will be falling on a bunch of happy 49ers. And I think the scoreboard will read something along the lines of San Francisco 27, Baltimore 17.

Here we go. Second to last time until next September (that, I can assure you, is an accurate prediction). What not to expect.

San Francisco (-4) at Atlanta
Here’s how I started out thinking about this game: I keep not believing in Atlanta and they keep proving me wrong. So I should pick the Falcons. Only, I also keep not believing in Colin Kaepernick and he keeps proving me wrong. So I should pick the Niners. You see where that got me? Nowhere. So you know what? I’ve decided I believe in both the Falcons and the kid. And that also gets me nowhere. I also believe in takeaway/giveaway differential. That get’s me most of nowhere (Falcons, +13; 49ers, +10). I believe the Falcons have a slightly more productive offense and the 49ers have a slightly stingier defense. Nowhere. I believe in home field advantage. That’s something, I suppose. But I also believe that the Falcons came within inches of choking away a 20-point fourth quarter lead at home last week against a team that was playing its second straight cross-continental road game and that isn’t nearly as good or as well coached as San Francisco. So there goes that. And now I’m back to nowhere (and starting to feel entirely too damned comfortable here). Seems to me that I’m destined to be wrong no matter how I pick this thing. So, to hell with it; I’ll go with the favorite. That way, at least I won’t feel like I’m all alone when it goes the other way. San Francisco by six.

Baltimore (+9) at New England
Let’s start with two completely meaningless statistics (because I did the research so I’m damned well gonna do something with it). First one: Teams playing in a conference championship (I’m lumping pre-merger league championships into this group) the year after losing the Super Bowl are 7-2 (.778) all time. So there’s that. Next: Super Bowl era teams returning to the semifinals a year after losing a conference championship (league championship, pre-merger) are 12-19 (.387). None of that applies to this game in any real way, but you can maybe throw those numbers out at a bar or something and make people think you’re as crazy as I am. How about one that maybe does matter a little: Joe Flacco has never, in his entire career, played outstanding football for three consecutive weeks. Flacco once, in 2010, had three straight standout games, but there was a bye in between the second and third. More to the point, Flacco’s only two consecutive great games in the current season came in the wild card round and the divisional round of the playoffs. That is, prior to the last two weeks, the consistently inconsistent Flacco had been, consistently, up and down all season. Given that, do you think Flacco’s got a third straight great game in him? It could happen, I suppose, but I don’t see any reason you’d want to put money on it. Certainly, you won’t find that reason in the Patriots defense. Because the defense Flacco will face on Sunday isn’t even remotely like the D he faced back in week three when he rallied his team from a nine-point fourth quarter deficit to a one-point victory on the strength of deep passes and an absurd string of defensive penalties (which isn’t to say that the replacement officials made bad calls — some would argue they did; I don’t care — but that the New England D couldn’t get out of its own damned way in the final period). It’s also a defense that’s considerably tougher than the one the Patriots offense will face. The Ravens this season have been OK against the pass, but considerably less than OK against the run. And one can talk about how Baltimore’s D has been getting healthier, and how they finished the regular season with a couple of strong performances on the ground. But in the postseason Baltimore has given up 152 rushing yards to Indianapolis and 125 to Denver (precisely 25 of which came in overtime — so call it 100 if you want). And neither the Colts nor the Broncos achieved run production in the regular season that was even close to the seventh-ranked Patriots run offense. That appears to present a challenge for Baltimore. And what do you do if you’re the Ravens? Do you bring extra bodies to the line to try to slow down the run? Because if you do that, Tom Brady is going to eat you alive in the secondary. I’m also not convinced that the Ravens can get to the quarterback consistently enough to take the Brady out of his game. And if you can’t stop the run and you can’t stop the pass — and your defense, which isn’t young and which has played an awful lot of football over the last two weeks, has to face the fastest-moving, highest-scoring offense in the league — you end up in a situation in which you have to match the Patriots point for point. Ray Rice can’t do that on his own. Can Flacco do enough to make up the difference? On his best day, sure. But Flacco’s already had his best day. Twice. In a row. I think he needs to have as good a day here as he did back in week three, and I just don’t see that happening against the Patriots defense as currently configured. The Ravens and the Patriots virtually always play each other tough. And initially, I thought this game would turn on three points, max. But the more I look at it, the more I wonder if it isn’t time for one of those anomalous games in which one of these teams blows the other out. Last time around (back in 2009) that honor went to the Ravens. This time, it goes to the Patriots. New England, 33-14.

Here’s how it breaks down: I’m taking the road teams in the NFC and the home teams in the AFC. There’s no formula at work there. It’s just how it worked out. So what that means, on the whole, is that the road teams will prevail in the AFC and the home teams will advance in the NFC. Which is really just another way of saying here’s what not to expect.

Baltimore (+9.5) at Denver
This is why I don’t actually put any money on football games. The big spreads in both of the AFC matchups this weekend make me nervous. Sure, the Broncos and Patriots are the conference one and two seeds for a reason. And both the Ravens and the Texans appeared to be fading pretty steadily down the stretch (the Ravens lost four of their final five regular season games — making them 2-4 in their last six games when you add in their wild card round victory over the phony baloney Indianapolis Colts — while the Texans dropped their of their last four, which makes them 2-3 over their last five games when you factor in their wild card round victory over the inept Cincinnati Bengals). There aren’t a lot of reasons to anticipate straight-up upsets in either of the AFC games. But straight up is a different matter than against the spread. And two scores is just a lot to give in the divisional round. Then again, go ahead and tell me how the Ravens are going to compete with the Broncos in Denver. The Ravens that the Broncos hammered the Ravens in Baltimore a mere four weeks ago. The Ravens that are counting on an injured, 37-year-old linebacker to lead the way as they try to slow down the high-scoring, fast-moving Denver offense (because Lewis is a “great leader,” which is nice, I suppose, but hardly the same as being a great player, something he wasn’t this season even before he tore his triceps). The Ravens that simply don’t have a balanced enough offense to keep up with the Broncos. I see one chance for the Ravens to keep this game close: takeaways. If Baltimore can come out on top in the takeaway battle (something they definitely have the ability to do), they can keep the difference to a touchdown or so. If they can come out with a takeaway/giveaway differential of +2, they might be able to win it outright. But I don’t see that happening. And while I think they might stay with the Broncos until late in the second half, I think they ultimately fall by just a hair more than the spread. Denver by 10.

Green Bay (+3) at San Francisco
This one’s being pegged as a tough game to pick, but I’m not sure I buy it. Like the two AFC games, I think this features a team that improved over the course of the season playing a team that started hot, then appeared to stumble some down the stretch (though not nearly so pronouncedly as with the AFC squads). The only real difference is that in this one the hot team is on the road. I just don’t think the San Francisco defense is healthy enough to slow down Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense — you have to sack Rodgers at least five times get him off his game, something I’m not sure the Niners could do even if they were at full strength — whereas I’m fairly confident that the underrated Green Bay D has it in them to take at least something off of young Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers O. I’m looking for something close to a reversal of the result from these teams’ week one meeting, with the Packers coming out on top this time. But let’s say the difference will be seven rather than eight.

Seattle (+2.5) at Atlanta
Just like everybody else, I’m fairly certain that losing Chris Clemons is going to present a serious problem for the Seahawks defense. And I’m pretty sure you’ll see it play out in this game. Less pressure on Matt Ryan means more time for Julio Jones and Roddy White to get open. That’s going to put pressure on a Seattle D that was already going to have it’s hands full trying to slow down Jones, White and Tony Gonzalez. But it’s not like Seattle’s defense has been built on getting to the quarterback. It’s built to make the pass less and less effective over the course of a game by beating the tar out of the guys who catch the ball. Seattle still has the guys to do that. And as long as the Seahawks offense can keep them in the game long enough for toughness to become the deciding factor — which they should be able to do, as long as Marshawn Lynch is at least mostly healthy — I think they’ll manage to come out on top (only to lose next weekend in Green Bay). Seattle by a field goal.

Houston (+9.5) at New England
Here again, nine and a half seems like an awful lot to give in a divisional playoff game. It’s considerably less, of course, than the Patriots’ 28-point margin of victory in their week fourteen blowout of the Texans. But keep in mind that the ball bounced New England’s way all night long in that game. Luck may be, in Branch Rickey’s words, “the residue of design” (which is what Patriots situation football is all about), but no amount of design and no amount of preparation is going to guarantee that a goal line fumble by your running back is going to bounce into the hands of one of your receivers in the end zone. That kind of luck goes as easily as it comes. Still it’s not like everything went New England’s way and the Pats came out ahead by a field goal. The luck part of that game might have been the difference between a convincing 14-point game and a four-touchdown walloping, but that’s hardly the same as luck proving the factor that decides a win. The Patriots were the better team then, and they’re even more clearly the better team now. The New England offense is the highest scoring, fastest moving unit in football. The New England defense is much better than fans (and experts) realize (take a look at this graphic, which illustrates just how much better the Patriots pass D is now than it was 10 weeks ago — it’s not by just a little bit). And while I’m still not sure the Patriots league-best takeaway/giveaway differential (+25) means all that much against a team that takes as good care of the ball as Houston does, I simply find it hard to believe that the Texans secondary can prevail against the Patriots hurry-up passing attack, or that Houston’s vanilla offense can succeed against New England’s complex defense. So, yeah, I’m going to give the nine and a half here, too. In fact, I’d go as high as 14.

Cincinnati (+4.5) at Houston
I keep hearing/reading about how well the Bengals defense has been playing (and it has) and about how lost the Texans have looked over the final weeks of the season (and they have), and it kind of makes me want to join the crowd picking Cincinnati to pull off an  upset here. But I can’t. That’s not because I believe in the Texans (since I don’t) or because I don’t believe in the Bengals (though I don’t). Neither is it because I believe in Matt Schaub (I assure you that I don’t). It’s that I believe Andy Dalton and the Bengals offensive line are a difficult combination when you’re trying to win a playoff game on the road. Dalton has thrown too many picks, taken too many sacks and lost too many fumbles this season not to be a danger to his own team in a big game like this. The Texans defense does a pretty good job of getting to the quarterback, even in games when the opposing O line isn’t shaky (with one notable recent exception, of course). And the Texans offense does a good job of holding on to the ball, which means that a turnover or two by the Bengals — and those giveaways strike me as virtually inevitable — almost ensures that Cincinnati loses the turnover battle. And when you lose the turnover battle, you usually lose the game. I still don’t believe in the Texans, however, so I’m not giving any four and a half points. But I do like Houston to come out on top by a field goal.

Minnesota (+7.5) at Green Bay
I’ll start out by noting that I didn’t think the Vikings had it in them to win one game in a row over the Packers, so I sure as hell don’t think two straight is even a remote possibility. I’m thinking that at this point the Packers are pretty well aware that they’re not going to neutralize Adrian Peterson and force Christian Ponder to beat them with a defensive effort. The Packers weren’t able to slow Peterson down in either regular season meeting with the Vikings and they’re not likely to do it here. Neither can they count on Ponder to offer up a pair of costly turnovers as he did back in week thirteen. The best way to make Peterson a non-factor (and to put Ponder in a position to make crucial mistakes) is for the Green Bay offense to pour it on. And that’s what I expect to see them do. Minnesota’s defense is purely average. And it was pretty clear in the second half last weekend that the Packers had figured out how to score on the Vikings. I expect to see Green Bay pick up where they left off and put Minnesota in a deep enough hole that they can overcome Peterson’s production. Seven and a half is steep in a playoff game, particularly among division rivals, but I think Green Bay is up to the task. Packers by 10.

Indianapolis (+7) at Baltimore
Every season, there’s a team that makes the playoffs despite that it clearly has no business there. This season, that team is the Colts. Indianapolis comes into this game with a one-dimensional offense led by a rookie quarterback who very well might turn out to be great someday, but who is no better than average right now (no matter what you might have heard); a defense capable of stopping nothing; and a giveaway-takeaway differential of -12. The Ravens may be fading (they’re probably fading), but they’re not fading that fast. The Ravens take good care of the ball, they do a good job of taking advantage of the opportunities opponents present, and they have an offense that’s plenty good enough to put up 28 or better on the Colts. That will get the job done. Straight up, anyhow. It’s a push with the points.

Seattle (-3) at Washington
The only thing I know about this game is that it ought to be exciting to watch. I’m not sure I’d feel that way if Robert Griffin III were healthy. I think Griffin’s good enough to give even Seattle’s outstanding defense a tough time. Neither am I sure I’d feel that way if the Native Americans’ defense were healthy. I’ve been impressed with Russell Wilson, no question about that. He’s a kid with a great football head on his shoulders. But I continue to wonder if that head (and those shoulders) aren’t ultimately just a few inches too close to the ground for Wilson to succeed over the long term or in the big spot. But Griffin isn’t 100 percent. And the Washington defense hasn’t been 100 percent all season. And because of that, I have to believe Seattle has a shot. In fact, if the game were in Seattle, I’m pretty sure I’d take the Seahawks. Of course, one of the reasons the game is in Maryland is that the Seahawks don’t travel well. Seattle is a 3-5 road team, and only one of their three road wins came over a team that finished the season with a winning record (the Bears, who, you know, aren’t in the playoffs). That gets us right back to where we started: good game featuring a home team that should be the better squad and a road team that probably actually is the better squad, but that hasn’t shown any real ability to play up to its potential away from its own building. I think RG3 does just enough to eke out a win. Barely. Maybe right at the end of regulation. Native Americans, 23-21.