This Football Blog

Well, Thursday night didn’t go as expected. I guess Peyton must have thought the playoffs had started. Let’s see what else I can get wrong t his week. Here’s what not to expect.

Washington (+6.5) at Atlanta
The loser here will be on track for the second overall pick in the 2014 draft. Well, that’s the case if the loser is Atlanta, anyhow. A Washington loss would also go a long way to determining draft order — but with the advantage going to St. Louis, the team that owns the Racists’ first round pick. The Rams have to be feeling pretty good right now. Atlanta by a touchdown.

San Francisco (-5.5) at Tampa Bay
It’s entirely understandable that it has become popular to pick the Bucs in the upset. Tampa is one of several home underdogs, and any week that features a overlarge number of home dogs is going to give rise to a few upsets. The Buccaneers also have won four of their last five, a run that includes victories over the Dolphins and Lions, neither of which is a great team but both of which are in the post-season hunt. Moreover, San Francisco is coming off an exhausting win over a Seattle and may well be due for a letdown game. But, you know, I’m just not seeing it. The Niners are a better team than the Fins or the Lions, especially on defense. Plus, San Francisco’s has hardly locked up the NFC six seed; the 49ers know they need to win games like this one in order to ensure themselves a place in the tournament. They’ll get the job done and, more than that, win handily. San Francisco by 13.

Seattle (-7) at NY Giants
The Seahawks need two more wins (max) to sew up home field advantage through the NFC playoffs. A victory over the Giants, who are 100 percent done and looking toward the off-season, should prove a pretty solid first step. But this is Seattle’s second straight road game, and the trip east is never easy, so let’s look for the difference to be more like four.

Chicago (pick ’em) at Cleveland
It became clear to me several weeks ago that no one wants to win the NFC North. Browns by six.

Houston (+5.5) at Indianapolis
The Colts may be fading, but no one’s fading fast enough to lose to the truly awful Texans. Indy by a touchdown.

Buffalo (-2) at Jacksonville
There’s nothing on the line but a better spot in the draft. The Bills come out ahead in that regard. Jaguars by a field goal.

New England (-2.5) at Miami
The Broncos’ loss to San Diego Thursday night opened the door for the Patriots to steal the AFC one seed. That’s nice and all, but it’s rather unlikely. New England’s going to drop one of their last three. Might be this one. Might be next week in Baltimore. (Might be both, frankly, given the Patriots’ increasingly insane injury situation, not to mention their inability to get the offense going in the first half.) Ultimately, though, until I see different I have to pick the better team to win. And that’s New England. Another close one. Patriots by a point.

Philadelphia (-4.5) at Minnesota
The better part of the Vikings offense is sidelined. That should just about do it. Eagles by 14.

NY Jets (+11) at Carolina
The Jets have won one in a row. That’s usually enough to get the fans in New Jersey thinking their team’s going to the Super Bowl. And that’s got to be a nice little world to live in. Panthers by 20.

Kansas City (-4.5) at Oakland
The Chiefs have an outside chance to grab the AFC West crown. You know, if the Broncos completely fall apart. That’s not happening, which makes this game almost entirely irrelevant. But the Chiefs will win it anyhow. By a touchdown.

Arizona (-2.5) at Tennessee
The Cardinals still have a chance to sneak into the playoffs if they can win out. That won’t matter much when they get to Seattle next weekend. But it might help propel them to a win here. Along with, you know, being the better team. Arizona by six.

New Orleans (-6) at St. Louis
Road schmode, it’s an indoor game. Saints by 17.

Green Bay (+7) at Dallas
Neither of these teams is going anywhere. But Dallas will still be able to pretend it’s going somewhere when it’s all over. Cowboys by seven.

Cincinnati (-2.5) at Pittsburgh
There’s no question about which of these is the better team. Cincy’s headed for a divisional title and may well yet take the AFC two seed away from battered New England. But that doesn’t mean anyone should expect the Steelers to roll over as they host a hated divisional rival. Pittsburgh will make it a game, even if they don’t succeed in spoiling the Bengals chances to improve their post-season berth. Cincinnati by three.

Baltimore (+6) at Detroit
The Ravens probably have the toughest path of all the teams playing for the AFC six seed over the final weeks of the season. From here, Baltimore hosts New England, then travels to Cincinnati. They need to win at least two of those three if they’re going to hold off Miami and San Diego. The Lions are the weakest of the three opponents, which means the Ravens absolutely have to win this game. Fortunately for them, there’s that thing where no one wants to win the NFC North. Baltimore by four.

Yup. My last chance to get all my picks done before the Thursday night game and it just isn’t happening. Here’s what not to expect.

San Diego (+10.5) at Denver
The Chargers’ backs are up against the wall. They absolutely have to win out if they’re going to have any shot at sneaking into the post-season as the AFC six seed. So maybe they’ll come out swinging and manage to give the Broncos a run for their money. Even if they do, though, it won’t matter. The Broncos took care of the Chargers easily in San Diego back in week 10. They’ll have an even easier time of it here. Denver by 17.

Here we are in the home stretch, a time when every game either means something or it doesn’t. All of which helps me not one damned bit. Here’s what not to expect.

Kansas City (-3) at Washington
The Chiefs need desperately to get off the schneid and get their feet back under them as the regular season moved into the home stretch. The Racists need desperately to get this season over with and get out of the way. (Or maybe it’s just that I need desperately for the Racists to do that.) It’ll all happen just as everyone needs it to. Kansas City by 14.

Minnesota (+6.5) at Baltimore
The Ravens are in the hunt (and, for the moment, on the inside track in the race for the final AFC wild card spot). They’ll remain their for one more week before starting the three-game skid that will leave them on the outside looking in come December 30. Baltimore by nine.

Cleveland (+10) at New England
The Patriots have scored a total of 10 first half points in their last three games. They should have 10 on the board by midway through the first quarter of this one. On defense, the Patriots should come out of this game looking like they’ve solved their inability to stop the run and rediscovered the takeaway (even though the former, at least, will be an illusion). New England by no less than (and possibly rather more than) 17.

Atlanta (+3) at Green Bay
The How The Mighty Have Fallen Bowl. Three months ago, this game looked like it could potentially decide the NFC one seed. And here we are, with the Falcons just trying to get through the rest of the season and the Packers holding on to the futile hope that they’ll be able to keep their post-season hopes alive long enough to get their star QB back on the field. For whatever little it’s worth (and it’s very little indeed; they’re going nowhere), Green Bay wins the game. It’s a push with the points.

Oakland (+3) at NY Jets
Both of these teams are done. But the Jets, only because they’re the Jets, apparently don’t know it yet. This game won’t do anything to change that. New Jersey stumbles to a one-point win.

Indianapolis (+6.5) at Cincinnati
The Colts very simply cannot afford to lose this game. These two teams come into this matchup at 8-4. After this, the Bengals are winning at least two of their last three, while the Colts are winning exactly two of their last three. That means a loss would effectively lock the Colts into the four seed (barring some kind of precipitous drop by the Bengals or Patriots) and a first-round matchup against the Chiefs. The Colts don’t want to catch the Chiefs on wild card weekend. (You’ll see why two weeks from now when Indianapolis visits Kansas City.) Trouble is, the Colts have very little chance of winning this game. In fact, I can see exactly one way for Indy to get the upset here: They need to come out ahead in the turnover battle by at least +2. That’s a possibility when you’re facing Andy Dalton, whose 16 picks are the fourth most in the NFL this season. But it’s a hell of a tough thing to have to tie your hopes to. And I strongly suspect it won’t be nearly enough. Bengals by four.

Detroit (+3) at Philadelphia
The NFC North officially overtakes the NFC East for weakest division in the NFL this season. Eagles by 13.

Miami (+3.5) at Pittsburgh
In which the Steelers commence the seemingly unlikely four-game winning streak that will net them the AFC six seed and the right to play exactly one extra game in January. Pittsburgh by four.

Buffalo (+2.5) at Tampa Bay
Neither of these teams has anything real to play for, so I’ll take the one that’s fooled itself in to believing it’s playing for pride. Tampa by three.

Tennessee (+12) at Denver
“See,” Peyton Manning fans will say after this one is over. “Peyton can so play well in cold weather.” And the rest of the top AFC teams will tremble, knowing that the great Manning can indeed play well enough in the latter part of the season to help his team get past struggling competition. Never mind the pair of picks he threw on the way. Those don’t matter. Denver by 10.

St. Louis (+5) at Arizona
In the end, 9-7 isn’t going to quite get it done for the Cardinals. And unless the Seahawks have the one seed completely sewn up by week 16 and choose to open the door for Arizona as a result, 9-7 is where the Cards are headed. But Arizona’s an improving team and they’re going to fight all the way to the finish. That should be enough to get them a win today, though I wouldn’t give more than three.

NY Giants (+3.5) at San Diego
When the Giants return to the visitors locker room following the game, they’ll find a banner reading, “Forget you, too, Eli. Enjoy your off-season.” San Diego by a touchdown.

Seattle (+2.5) at San Francisco
The Seahawks were a better team than the defending NFC champions back in week two, and they’re still a better team now. But a short week, a desperate opponent, and the difficulty of beating a good division rival on the road will conspire to neutralize Seattle’s quality advantage, if only just. San Francisco by a point.

Carolina (+3) at New Orleans
Six days ago, the Saints were playing for home field advantage throughout the playoffs. New Orleans lost any hope of that early on. Now, one has to wonder whether the Saints can hold off the Pass Interferences, who are challenging for the NFC South crown. Recent evidence suggests they cannot. Carolina by a field goal.

Dallas (+1) at Chicago
I don’t believe in either of these teams. Well, that’s not true. I believe that each of these teams has a good shot to qualify for the playoffs as the winner of a weak division, only to be bounced in the wild card round by Carolina, New Orleans or San Francisco. These are both wholly mediocre squads, and I’m going with the one playing at home. Bears by a field goal.

Damned near forgot there was a game tonight. Because, yeah, it’s exactly that compelling. Here’s what not not even anyone in Jacksonville or Houston cares whether they should or shouldn’t expect. (Ugh.)

Houston (-3) at Jacksonville
The Texans are supposed to be a better team than the Jaguars. Statistically speaking, the Texans mostly are a better team than the Jaguars (except that they’re way worse at taking the ball away from opponents, which is largely because they’re worse at that than every team in the league other than the Jets). But in reality, the Texans aren’t a better team than the Jaguars. Not at all. Here’s how I know. And I’m taking the home team that should be worse to beat the road team that should be better. But I won’t find out whether I got it right until Friday morning, because, really, I have much better things to do tonight. Don’t you? Jacksonville by a field goal.

It’s a

Tennessee (+3.5) at Indianapolis
If you can’t beat a team in your own building even after jumping out to a two-touchdown lead, you’re probably not going to bounce back 17 days later and beat them at their place. The Colts effectively wrap up the NFC South title by putting a three-game gap and the tie breaker between themselves and their only competition. Indianapolis by a touchdown.

Jacksonville (+7) at Cleveland
I suspect two wins in a single season is about all anyone can expect from the Jaguars. Browns by a field goal.

Tampa Bay (+7.5) at Carolina
Maybe it’s just that I still haven’t bought into the notion that the Pass Interferences are actually a good football team, but I suspect this game is going to be a good bit closer than expected. Carolina wins, but they do it with a late comeback and they only come out ahead by a point.

Chicago (+1) at Minnesota
On the road and with no hope of Jay Cutler leading them to a comeback victory, the Bears will be forced to sit back and watch Adrian Peterson run their already fading post-season hopes into the ground. Vikings by seven.

Arizona (+3) at Philadelphia
The winner of this game stays alive in the real NFC playoff hunt. The loser stays alive in the absurd race for first place in the horrible NFC East. Arizona by a field goal.

Miami (+2) at NY Jets
The loser of this game gets to start preparing for the NFL Draft. The winner has to keep pretending to be in the mix for the final AFC wild card spot. So, you know, that’s pretty exciting stuff. Here’s something real: The Jets not only have the worst giveaway/takeaway differential in the NFL (-16), but are tied with the other New Jersey squad for most interceptions surrendered (18). The Dolphins defense has logged the sixth most interceptions in the league, second most in the AFC (14). That should make for some interesting plays. Miami by four.

New England (-7.5) at Houston
The Patriots are pretty banged up. They’re also due for a letdown after last week’s huge comeback victory over the Broncos. So while they’re the better team by far in this matchup, don’t be shocked if the Pats need the full 60 minutes to win this thing and only come out ahead by a narrow margin. New England by four.

Atlanta (+3) vs Buffalo at the Rogers Centre, Toronto
OK, then. Um, Bills. By, oh, I don’t know, let’s go with six. That sound good?

St. Louis (+8) at San Francisco
Back in week four, when the Rams still had their starting quarterback, the 49ers traveled to St. Louis and came away with a 35-11 win. So what do you think happens here? I’m just going with Niners by 24 again, because that way I don’t have to think too much about it.

Cincinnati (+1) at San Diego
Heading into this game, the Chargers are in a tight race with the Ravens for the AFC’s final wild card spot. Coming out of it, the Bengals may find themselves in a tight race with the Ravens for the AFC North title. Chargers by a field goal.

Denver (-5.5) at Kansas City
The Broncos face a second straight road game against tough competition. The Chiefs have a chance to even the score against the Broncos, end a two-game skid, and retake the lead in the AFC West. The Chiefs also have to know that losing this game would effectively end their hopes of capturing the division and the conference one seed. And it’s beyond difficult to beat a talented division opponent twice in the same season. So, yeah, all signs point to a Kansas City victory. So, of course, I’m picking the Broncos to win this game. (Don’t worry, Chiefs fans. Your team will take the important one, when these teams meet again in the divisional round of the playoffs.) Denver by a field goal.

NY Giants (-1) at Washington
The Giants keep their fake post-season hopes alive for one more week before starting a three-game skid. New Jersey by six.

New Orleans (+5) at Seattle
Winner gets to host the rematch in seven weeks. And that winner is … Seattle, by a point.

Ah, yes, Thanksgiving football. A great American tradition. And today, the NFL celebrates by giving us a full slate of games that we can be thankful for in at least one regard: we won’t feel bad about missing the “action” while we stir the gravy, carve the bird and sleep off our full bellies. Thanks for a Thanksgiving slate loaded with painful mediocrity, NFL! Here’s what not to expect.

Green Bay (+6) at Detroit
If the Lions wanted to win their first division title in 20 years (and their first ever in the NFC North), they probably would have found a way to beat Pittsburgh and/or Tampa Bay over the last two weeks. If the Packers wanted to win their third straight NFC North title, they probably would have, in the off season, figured out a way to protect their franchise quarterback or brought in a capable backup. Of course, the Bears don’t seem to want the division crown, either. So maybe these teams know something we don’t. What I do know is that some team has to win the North. And one of these teams has to win this game. I’m going with the one that’s at home and that has a real starting QB. But I’m not giving any six points. Lions by a field goal.

Oakland (+9.5) at Dallas
Well, I suppose the Cowboys are in a battle for first place in the NFC East. And that would probably mean something if first place in the NFC East meant anything. Since it doesn’t, I’ll just have to fall back on the fact that the Raiders (shockingly) are awful. Dallas by six.

Pittsburgh (+3) at Baltimore
The winner of this game takes the inside track for the AFC six seed. What’s odd, is that I think the loser of this game will be in the final wild card slot when the regular season comes to an end four weeks from now. Pittsburgh makes the playoffs, but Baltimore wins tonight. Ravens by four.

We’ve got to the point in the season where you can actually see how games could matter, even in instances where the teams playing them don’t. So that’s kind of exciting, right? Here’s what not to expect.

Tampa Bay (+8) at Detroit
The Buccaneers only need one thing to be able to truly competitive in games like this: An offense. Here’s one of those instances where the team that wins the turnover battle still loses the game, as Tampa comes out +1 in giveaway/takeaway and -7 on the scoreboard. That is, Lions by a touchdown.

Jacksonville (+10) at Houston
The Texans haven’t won a game since week two. The Jaguars are the Jaguars. Houston by nine.

Minnesota (+4.5) at Green Bay
The 5-5 Packers are holding on for dear life, hoping Aaron Rodgers can get back on the field before their post-season hopes are completely wiped out. And while the 2-8 Vikings are in a race for nothing but the first pick in the 2014 draft (they’re not “winning” that one, either), there’s no question that they’d be happy to play spoiler against their hated division rivals. If this game were in Minnesota, the Vikings would have a chance. But it isn’t. Green Bay should manage to get just enough done at home to steal a win and stay alive for another week. Or, you know, four days — until they get to Detroit on Thanksgiving. Packers by a field goal.

San Diego (+4) at Kansas City
Whether the Chiefs actually have something to prove after their week eleven loss at Denver (I don’t think they do) doesn’t matter. The Chiefs no doubt think they have something to prove. And the Chargers offer them a chance to prove it up and down the field. The Kansas City offense puts up 30-plus for the first time this season, and the defense adds a score as the Chiefs bring San Diego’s season to an ugly, early conclusion. Kansas City by 17.

Carolina (-4.5) at Miami
Bit of a change of pace for the Pass Interferences, who might actually manage a legitimate victory this week. Carolina by six.

Pittsburgh (+2) at Cleveland
If the Browns had a running game, they’d be able to effectively eliminate the Steelers from playoff contention while keeping their own hopes alive. And if I had a banana, I’d be a … well, I’d be a guy with a banana who doesn’t think the Browns can win this game. Pittsburgh by four.

Chicago (+1.5) at St. Louis
At some point, the Bears’ injury situation has to begin to catch up with them, doesn’t it? Rams by a field goal.

NY Jets (+3.5) at Baltimore
You could, and many are, look at this game as the match that decides the AFC six seed. But it isn’t. The Jets are headed for 8-8. The Ravens are headed for 7-9. Baltimore is going to have to settle for knowing that they were the better team head-to-head. Ravens by seven.

Tennessee (-1.5) at Oakland
This is what we wait all week for, isn’t it, football fans? I don’t know what to make of this game. I know what to make of these teams. They’re bad. Both of them. But I’m not sure which is worse. So I’m just going with the home team by three. Because that way I can stop thinking about it.

Indianapolis (+3) at Arizona
If the season ended today, the Colts would be the AFC two seed. The Cardinals would be one of a handful of teams to just miss the NFC six seed. But the Cards are going in the right direction while the Colts are trailing off. Arizona by four.

Dallas (+2.5) at NY Giants
Neither of these teams has any business being in contention for anything. And yet … NFC East. Ugh. So long as they can hold on to the ball, the Giants should win it by a touchdown.

Denver (-2.5) at New England
Remember when the Patriots used to beat Peyton Manning‘s Colts by controlling the ball, slowing down the game and keeping Manning’s offense on the sideline? I expect this game to look a lot like that. The Patriots (who will actually take the ball if they win the toss) will come out throwing short passes, then, once they’ve opened up running lanes, start pounding the ball up the middle. The New England D will get two turnovers, one fumble (against a Broncos team that leads the league in fumbles lost) and one pick. Aided by the cold and wind, the Pats will limit the Broncos to their lowest point total of the season, and they’ll come out ahead 27-24.

San Francisco (+5) at Washington
One of these teams is making a run at a repeat trip to the playoffs. The other is making a run at last place in the NFL’s worst division. I’m not sure what else needs to be said. 49ers by 13.

Do I need to explain that Thursday crept up on me (again)? Or can I just get to the next to nothing that I have to say about tonight’s game? OK, thanks.

New Orleans (-9) at Atlanta
Here is a list of the things the 2-8 Falcons do well: Lose. The Saints, on the other hand, do most everything well. They’re not so good at taking the ball away, which I suppose can be a problem. But not in this game. Atlanta should be able to keep it close playing at home against a division rival, but probably only for a half, maybe three quarters. Sooner or later, New Orleans will break through. And the Saints will end up winning it by two touchdowns.

And now, finally, the rest of what not to expect in week eleven.

Atlanta (-1.5) at Tampa Bay
The Falcons aren’t good at very much, except for maybe finding new ways to get thinner. They’ve also yet to win on the road this season. But it’s still difficult to pick against them here, by which I mean it’s difficult to embrace the notion that the Buccaneers, after losing eight in a row, have it in them to win two games in a span of six days. Still, I’ve got to pick one of these teams, so I’m going with the one that’s hosting, mostly because the fact that the Bucs are at playing at home is the only thing related to this game that feels in any way certain to me. Tampa Bay by a field goal.

NY Jets (+1) at Buffalo
It’s just really hard to succeed in football without wide receivers, you know? Jets by a touchdown.

Detroit (-2.5) at Pittsburgh
The thing that’s killing the Steelers this season (well, a few things are killing the Steelers this season, but this is the big one) is that they can’t stop turning the ball over. That continues here as Ben Roethlisberger throws a pair of picks and the Lions come out on top by six.

Washington (+3.5) at Philadelphia
Oh, boy. Bet the over. Eagles finally win a home game, but only by a field goal.

San Diego (-1.5) at Miami
These two teams may come into this game with the same record, 4-5, but their situations couldn’t be more different. The Chargers have a legit shot at the AFC six seed (though they may need some help from the Chiefs come week 17 to get it). The Dolphins are headed toward a last-place finish in the AFC East and a tumultuous off season. That difference will show on the field as San Diego picks Miami apart. Chargers by two touchdowns.

Baltimore (+3) at Chicago
The forecast in Chicago today calls for heavy rain and winds of up to 70 mph. In other words, a miserable day for everyone. Probably just slightly more miserable for the Ravens. Chicago wins 10-7.

Cleveland (+6) at Cincinnati
A Browns win (which would mean a sweep in the season series) would make the AFC North race a good bit more interesting. But it’s not going to happen. Though they win the turnover battle (+1), the Browns still manage to lose the game. Bengals by three.

Oakland (+7) at Houston
There is no winner in this matchup. But the Texans will be the team that puts up the most points. Houston by a touchdown.

Arizona (-7) at Jacksonville
The Jaguars got their win for the season last week. Now it’s time to revert to form. Cardinals by 20.

Minnesota (+12.5) at Seattle
I don’t know if Seahawks are the best team in the NFC, but they’re certainly one of the top two or three. I do know that the Vikings are among the worst teams in the NFL. Not sure what else needs saying at this point. Seahawks by 21.

San Francisco (+3) at New Orleans
The 49ers offense just doesn’t have the stuff to run with the Saints offense right now. It really is that simple. Saints by six.

Green Bay (+4) at NY Giants
Look at the Giants catching the Packers at exactly the right time. New Jersey keeps it’s ridiculous hopes in the ridiculous NFC East race alive for another week by beating up on a visiting squad without a quarterback. Giants by 10.

Kansas City (+8) at Denver
The regular season schedule has these two teams meeting twice in the course of three weeks. The anticipated playoff schedule has them meeting three times between now and the divisional round. Because one of these teams is going to land at the AFC one seed and the other is going to be the five. Assuming whichever ends up in the wild card slot beats the four seed (and that the six seed falls to the three, which seems a fairly safe bet right now), that means the Broncos and Chiefs play again in the second week of the post season. This game could determine where that playoff matchup takes place, but only if this round goes to the Chiefs. And if Kansas City wants to take a commanding lead in the race for the AFC West crown and the one seed, they’re going to have to do it by getting to gimpy Peyton Manning throughout the game. Contrary to popular opinion, that’s the way you beat the Broncos. You don’t try to match their offensive output; you take the only approach to limiting it, which is to disrupt Manning. I think the Kansas City pass rush has a pretty good chance to do that tonight. And I think the Chiefs will come very close to getting a win as a result. But in the end, I think they’ll come up just short. Broncos by a point.

New England (+2.5) at Carolina
I still don’t think the Panthers have proven a damned thing. Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe they really are that good. But I’ll take a rested, healing New England squad to beat a Carolina team that I suspect has been getting it done with smoke and mirrors. New England leads by a precarious seven late and ends up winning by 10.

No time to get to all of this week’s games before kickoff tonight, and not a whole lot to say about the latest gripping installment of Thursday Night Football. Here’s what not to expect tonight.

Indianapolis (-3) at Tennessee
It’s starting to look like neither of these teams is going anywhere (though, you know, some team has to win the AFC South) but the Titans are going nowhere faster. Colts by nine.