This Football Blog

Here we go again. A whole new season of pro football out ahead of us. A golden 256 opportunities for me to make an ass of myself with utterly ignorant picks. Or 267 if you count the playoffs. (Of course, I might point out that the last time I made a pick on a game that counted, I had New England beating Seattle in Super Bowl XLIX by a score of 27-23. So that’t not so bad.)

Anyhow, onward. Not much to say about this week’s games, because I can’t even pretend to know anything at this point in the season. Here’s what not to expect.

Pittsburgh (+7) at New England
The Patriots are ready to begin their revenge campaign. The Steelers are going to round into form (offensively speaking, anyhow) soon enough, but not in time for this game. New England by 20.

Green Bay (-7) at Chicago
One team’s quarterback probably will rank among the greatest of all time. The other team’s quarterback may rank among the most overrated of all time. And here we are reminded of the difference. Packers by 10.

Kansas City (+1) at Houston
This is the kind of game the Texans need to win if they’re going to have a shot at the division title. And they’re going to have a shot at the division title. Houston by a field goal.

Cleveland (+3) at NY Jets
Jets win the Super Bowl! Jets win the Super Bowl! Wait. You’re saying it’s just a week one home game against the lowly Browns? Oh. Jets are gonna win the Super Bowl! New Jersey by six.

Indianapolis (-2.5) at Buffalo
The Colts may come out of this looking like a better team than they are. Buffalo doesn’t have the offensive weapons to take advantage of Indy’s defensive shortcomings. The Bills may slow the Colts down for a quarter or a half, but in the end, it’s Indy by a pair of touchdowns.

Miami (-3.5) at Washington
Iffy road team giving three and a half? That doesn’t feel very good. But the Racists actually may be that bad. Dolphins by four.

Carolina (-3) at Jacksonville
I don’t know what to make of either of these teams, but I like the matchup of Carolina’s defense against Jacksonville’s offense better than anything else in this game. So I’ll take the Panthers straight up. It’s a push with the points.

Seattle (-4) at St. Louis
I won’t be shocked if the home dog manages an upset in this game. But I’m not quite ready to pick it that way. Seahawks by a field goal.

New Orleans (-2.5) at Arizona
The Saints offense isn’t ready to overcome the Cardinals’ defense. And won’t be until maybe next season. Arizona by a touchdown.

Detroit (+3) at San Diego
The Lions’ once formidable D isn’t in any kind of shape to slow down the Chargers’ O. Not in San Diego, anyhow. Chargers by eight.

Tennessee (+3) at Tampa Bay
It would be easy to list everything that’s impressive about these two teams, but why bother. What’s important is that there’s slightly less that’s unimpressive about the home squad. What more do you need to know. Bucs by four.

Cincinnati (-3.5) at Oakland
The Raiders are gonna surprise a few opponents this season. Starting this weekend. Oakland by a point.

Baltimore (+4.5) at Denver
Picking this matchup is every bit as simple as it isn’t. You can try to break it down, knowing next to nothing about how either team will fare this season. Or you can just go ahead and take the home team. That’s what I’m doing, though I’m going to hedge just a bit (easy when there’s no actual money on the line): Denver by a field goal.

NY Giants (+6) at Dallas
The Giants may overcome the Cowboys this season. But not in Dallas on the year’s first Sunday night. Cowboys by a touchdown.

Philadelphia (-3) at Atlanta
I don’t care where the game’s being played, the Falcons aren’t ready yet to keep up with the Eagles. Philly by six.

Minnesota (-2.5) at San Francisco
And, once again this week, I’m picking a road favorite. In this case, it’s mostly because I can’t come up with a single reason to believe the home team can manage a win. Vikings by 10.

This was going to be the year I finally overcame my ridiculous habit of making predictions about professional football games that won’t be played for months to come. Because, a) it’s a damned stupid thing to do; and b) the NFL spent the entire off-season pissing me off and distracting me with its absurd vendetta against Tom Brady, which, among other things, has prevented me from keeping as close an eye as usual on developments around the league. It adds up to me being somehow even less qualified than usual to reach any kind of  judgment about how any team is likely to fare in games played in September, let alone December.

But here we are. Maybe because I can’t help myself. Maybe because I’m itching to think about football again and this is as simple, and low risk, a way to accomplish that as I’m likely to come up with.

As always, even I’m not ridiculous enough to waste my time trying to guess at actual final win-loss records. To my mind, doing that moves you entirely to far away from the honest admission that this is an exercise in semi-educated guesswork. I mean, my balls are as fully inflated as the next guy’s, but neither of them is crystal. So once again, I’ll offer range of how many games I think each team is likely to win. (Or maybe I should say it’s how many games I believe each team is capable of winning. It’s something like that, anyhow.) I’ve got this weird idea that doing it this way gives me a better chance of getting it right even though it totally doesn’t. Last year 15 teams ended up with win totals inside my projected ranges. But, hey, I got the AFC Championship game matchup and outcome right. And I picked the Super Bowl XLIX winner (quite a stretch, I know) though I had the NFC champ wrong. So I’ve got that going for me.

Anyway, I’ve got to start getting football stuff wrong sooner or later. So here goes.

AFC East

New England Patriots, 13-15
I can’t get into health here. Is there reason to be concerned about the number of Patriots players who have been sidelined during the preseason? Sure. Just like there’s reason to be concerned about every team’s ability to get through any season without being undermined by injuries to key players. But that’s about as far as you can take that kind of talk. A football team either is going to stay healthy enough to function through the season or it isn’t.  Of greater concern, at least looking at New England from the outside, is the defensive secondary. Malcolm Butler may well be more than a one-hit wonder (or one pick wonder, I suppose), but he almost certainly isn’t Darrelle Revis. Butler’s not going to take an opponent’s best receiver out of a game by himself. Maybe there’s more to the Patriots secondary than anyone who isn’t part of the team realizes. Or maybe the Patriots feel like their pass rush is going to be powerful and aggressive enough (it sure as hell looks good) that they don’t need a secondary as formidable as the one that helped land them in the position of defending champs. I’m going to have to see it play out for a few weeks before I have any hope of understanding. The good news for New England, of course is that Brady is clearly going into this season loaded for bear. So unless this is the year when the O line disintegrates (which is possible, but not probable), the Pats can be expected to put more than their fair share of points on the board. And when you give your pass rushers a lead to protect, and free them to go hard after the opposing QB, you can usually realize pretty good results. The difference between a strong finish and a solid shot at the AFC one seed and blazing hot finish and a clear path another championship, to my mind, is all in how the secondary comes together.

New York Jets, 7-10
The Jets have a defense. The Jets may have backed into having a semi-talented starting quarterback. And there’s every reason to believe the Jets actually have managed to land themselves a talented, sane head coach. How it all falls apart remains to be seen. It’ll happen, but maybe not before New Jersey pulls off a few surprising wins and positions itself for a postseason berth.

Miami Dolphins, 6-9
I’ll say the same thing about the Dolphins heading into this season that I said heading into last. I think Ryan Tannehill has incredible potential. But no quarterback can complete passes from underneath a defensive end. If the Fins can prevent their quarterback from being killed, they could contend for the postseason. If not, they’ll have to hope their D can help them win a few games while they prepare for life under their next head coach.

Buffalo Bills, 3-8
I’ll believe Tyrod Taylor is a capable NFL starting quarterback when I see it. Until then, I figure this team is good for as many wins as its defense can produce. Might not be many. Might be enough to make the Bills a team to worry about heading into 2016.

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers, 8-12
It’s all about the defense for the Steelers, but not in the way it used to be. Pittsburgh’s offense looks capable of piling on points. Its defense looks like it may allow almost as many. And with relatively few gimmes on the schedule (really, just the two games against the Browns), it’s all a matter of how often the D bends and how often it breaks. That’s the difference between a division title and a shot at the two seed and a seat on the couch for the postseason.

Baltimore Ravens, 7-10
Sooner or later, the old chunking the ball up the field and hoping one of your guys comes down with it thing is bound to catch up with Joe Flacco. I suspect it may be now. And how the Ravens fare will depend on how they, and their quarterback, adjust. Baltimore is a well coached team with a formidable D. That may carry them to a division title despite any struggles Flacco and the O experience. Or it may not.

Cincinnati Bengals, 6-10
Sooner or later, it’s all going to fall apart for Andy Dalton. With the Bengals schedule, it could happen this season. But I don’t think it will. I see the Bengals taking a step back, maybe two, and probably missing the postseason. But a couple of good bounces of the ball, and they could be playing (and losing) on wild card weekend once again.

Cleveland Browns, 2-6
It’s not always easy to predict exactly where it will all fall apart for the Browns. All you can ever say with confidence is that it will all fall apart for the Browns. Then again, maybe this season it’s easier than usual to ID a likely weak spot.

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts, 9-12
The Colts spent the offseason adding offensive weapons with an eye toward helping get Andrew Luck to his first Super Bowl. That would be a reasonable plan if scoring had been a problem for Indy. But the reality is that the Colts offense ranked sixth in scoring last year with 28.6 points per game, just 1.8 behind the league-leading Packers, and 0.7 behind the eventual champion Patriots, who routed the Colts in the AFC Championship. You’d almost think someone would have suggested improving a defense that allowed 23.1 points per game, 14th most in the league, and second most among playoff teams after the Panthers (who backed into the playoffs with a losing record). But apparently not. So, yeah, assuming their O line holds (not a given), the Colts should be able to increase their scoring. Add 5 points a game and they’ll likely lead the league. Add 9.4 and they’ll set a new single-season record. In either case, they’d land among the top 9 scoring offenses of all time. Nice, except only two of the other eight made it to the Super Bowl, and none of them won. So that should work out great. Only, I don’t even expect the Colts to do that well. I think they take a step back this season, possibly even losing the division to the Texans.

Houston Texans, 9-12
Bill O’Brien is on track to become the first former Bill Belichick assistant to succeed as an NFL head coach. And it looks to me like O’Brien’s Texans are headed for a big step — a postseason berth — this season. The Texans fought their way to 9-7 last year. And they appear to be a stronger team heading into the 2015 campaign. I certainly don’t see them taking a step back, and I think with the way their defense is constructed, they’re going to be in a position to earn a split with the Colts, and perhaps to reverse last year’s result by sweeping their rivals. In the former case, the Texans should at least grab a wild card spot. In the latter, they take the South and contend for the two seed.

Tennessee Titans, 3-7
It’s entirely possible that the Titans have solved the quarterback position. Which will be nice as soon as they solve some of the others.

Jacksonville Jaguars, 3-7
The Jaguars may actually make it through the 2015 season without getting Blake Bortles killed. That’s something, right?

AFC West

Denver Broncos, 8-13
The defense is going to keep this team in games no matter what. It’s hard to imagine them missing the playoffs. It’s impossible to imagine them finishing with less than a .500 record. Everything else is about the new offense and how Peyton Manning fares within it. You’d be a fool to write off the Broncos. But I think the folks in Denver may want to hold off on parade planning, at least until week 12-ish.

San Diego Chargers, 9-11
One hates to make the same prediction about a team two years running, but I can’t help it in this case. The Chargers once again have a chance to frustrate Peyton Manning’s attempt to fight his way to one last Super Bowl. The Chargers look formidable on both sides of the ball. If they can avoid the health issues that plagued them last season, they should be able to take advantage of a schedule that puts both of their games against Denver solidly in Manning’s now traditional duck season. Take away the run and force Peyton to try to win with his arm and the Chargers should finish with a division title. If not, they’ll still finish in strong contention for a wild card spot.

Kansas City Chiefs, 8-10
I keep hearing that this is the year the Chiefs overtake the Broncos. And maybe it is. We’ll have a better sense of whether that’s possible when Denver travels to Kansas City for the week two Thursday night game. If you’re going to take the division title away from your biggest rival, you have to be able to beat them when they travel to face you on a short week, right? Me, I think even if KC can get the best of Denver, they’re still destined to finish behind San Diego.

Oakland Raiders, 5-8
The Raiders almost certainly are the most improved team in the AFC West. Of course, that’s due in large part to the fact that they had the most room for improvement. Things are looking up for Oakland, but this team is still a year removed from making a serious push for the playoffs.

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles, 9-12
The Eagles managed 10 wins last season, and they appear to be a marginally better team this year. And they’ve got a few soft spots in their schedule. So, um, let’s pencil them in for 11 wins, which could be enough to earn them a division title, followed by the usual early bow from the tournament.

Dallas Cowboys, 9-11
I seriously underrated the Cowboys last season. Didn’t realize they had discovered that a running game is still part of playing offense in the NFL. This year, I fully realize that Dallas appears to have forgotten that lesson. So I like them to finish a game or two worse than the 12 wins they managed in 2014. Maybe that gives them another division title, but it won’t do much more.

New York Giants, 8-11
Given how many experts are counting them out, you have to like the Giants chances at winning not only the NFC East but the Super Bowl. Because that’s who they are. The Giants are probably a slightly stronger team than the squad that finished 6-10 last season. If they can pair stronger with healthier, they can make a run at the division championship. Don’t be shocked if they find a way to put it together.

Washington Racists, 2-5
What are the two most important elements in building a successful team in the NFL? Good coaching and good quarterback play. So, um, yeah.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers, 12-15
As good as they are, the Packers have no chance of advancing to the Super Bowl this season. How do I know? Because the Packers clearly aren’t going to make it back to the Super Bowl until I (and a bunch of others) stop picking them to get to the Super Bowl. And I just can’t back off. So, sorry, Aaron, I’ll try my best to pick against you next year.

Detroit Lions, 8-10
The Lions were an 11-5 wild card team in 2014 with a stronger defense than the one they bring into the 2015 campaign.

Minnesota Vikings, 8-10
I’m not as confident as some that the return of Adrian Peterson to the lineup means the Vikings are headed to the playoffs. But neither am I inclined to write Minnesota off. If the Vikes can manage six wins over their first eight games, I’ll start to believe. Otherwise, it’s a fantasy.

Chicago Bears, 3-6
It is simply never going to happen for, or with, Jay Cutler.

NFC South

Carolina Panthers, 8-10
A team is going to win the NFC South title. Might as well be the one with the defense. And, you know, Cam Newton.

New Orleans Saints, 8-10
Or maybe it will be the Saints. They’ve got a pretty good quarterback, too. But not much else. I suspect that’s the difference. Again.

Atlanta Falcons, 8-10
Or the Falcons. They couldn’t compete in most divisions in football, but they have a chance to win this one.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 4-8
But not the Buccaneers. Not yet.

NFC West

Seattle Seahawks, 11-14
I hate it when other people say stuff like this, but … you know, the Seahawks came within a single play (more than that, the single greatest play in Super Bowl history) of winning back-to-back championships. And they improved on offense. I don’t know how you pick against a team like that. I sure can’t.

Arizona Cardinals, 10-12
The Cardinals are going to win games the old fashioned way: With a crushing defense and a hard-pounding run-centered offense. That may not get them past the Seahawks, but I think it will get them into the playoffs again. And I suspect they’ll win a game, maybe two, once they get there.

St. Louis Rams, 7-9
The Rams also will win games the old fashioned way. Just not quite so many as the Cardinals. And not enough for it to really matter.

San Francisco 49ers, 3-6
The Niners are just plain headed in the wrong direction.

Playoffs

Let’s just get on with this annual exercise in stupidity, shall we?

AFC
1. New England
2. Houston
3. Pittsburgh
4. San Diego
5. Indianapolis
6. Denver

NFC
1. Green Bay
2. Seattle
3. Philadelphia
4. Carolina
5. Arizona
6. NY Giants

Wild Card Playoffs

AFC
Pittsburgh defeats Denver
San Diego defeats Indianapolis

NFC
Arizona defeats Carolina
NY Giants defeat Philadelphia

Divisional Playoffs

AFC
Pittsburgh defeats Houston
New England defeats San Diego

NFC
Seattle defeats Arizona
Green Bay defeats NY Giants

Conference Championships

AFC
New England defeats Pittsburgh

NFC
Green Bay defeats Seattle

Super Bowl L (Sorry, I’m just not ready to concede the Arabic numeration yet)
New England defeats Green Bay

So there’s your 2015 NFL season at a glance (or two). Except for all wrong.

Let me just get this out of the way quickly before I get to the big game. I was better against the spread than I was picking straight up once again on conference championship Sunday. That makes twice. In a season. And in a row. But, you know, small sample size and all that. I went 1-1 straight up (thanks to the Packers’ collapse), bringing me to 173-89 on the year. And I was 2-0 against the spread, which got me to (ugh) 123-135-4. Just one more chance to get everything wrong. So here we go. What not to expect in Super Bowl XLIX.

New England (-1) vs Seattle
The Patriots aren’t winning this game because they’re angry about Deflategate. They’re not winning this thing because they’re due. Or because Tom Brady and Bill Belichick need it to cement their legacies. (If you think for a second the opportunity to cement a legacy has any bearing on the outcome of a game like this, I advise you to revisit Super Bowl XLVIII.) Similarly, the Seahawks aren’t winning because they’re a “team of destiny,” the NFL‘s next great dynasty rising. Neither is Seattle winning because karma’s on the Seahawks’ side, or because the football gods are out to smite New England. That’s Super Bowl party conversation stuff. It has nothing to do with how a game is decided.

These teams have made it to this point because they are the best in their conferences. And they at least appear to be very evenly matched.

So, as usual, the team that wins (this may come as a shock for the more media-saturated among you) will be the one that brings in the better game plan and executes better on the field. I know, right?

As I see it, there’s next to no margin for error in this game. Seriously, this looks to me like the kind of game that can turn on a single takeaway. That’s one bad decision. One nervous mistake. One unlucky bounce of the ball. Which way does that go? I don’t know. I don’t remember the last time I had so little ability even to guess. Because both of these teams excel at creating turnovers. And, for the most part, both excel at holding onto the ball. (Hope for what you will, Patriots fans, but I don’t envision the Seahawks committing multiple turnovers in a second straight game.) Let’s look at what the stats and trends say.

That at least would appear to favor New England. But only slightly.

Same goes for the other typical predictive stats. I’m not going to do charts for those, simply because the calculations are a bit more complicated. You can take my word for this or not. (Or go ahead and do the math yourself. It’s fun if you’re sort of a little bit crazy.)

Scoring Differential
Regular season: Patriots +0.5
Postseason: Patriots +6.0
All 18: Patriots +1.0

Passer Rating Differential
Regular season: Seahawks +0.6
Postseason: Patriots +10.5
All 18: Patriots +0.8

I normally feel pretty good about a team that comes out on top in two out of three of those categories. And what we see (for the most part, and certainly in the postseason and all 18 numbers, which are what matter most) are the Patriots coming out at least slightly ahead.

But, you know, this stuff only ever gets you so far in reality football. And it all still leaves one to try to reach some tough conclusions about what’s likely to happen on the field of play.

And that remains difficult, in no small part because both of these teams have stepped up when they’ve faced their toughest opposition.

But I’ve got to come up with something, because, well, I brought you hear on a promise. So here’s what I’m thinking.

Although what you’ve heard about, and what you’ll continue to hear about, is that this game is about the powerhouse New England offense vs. the stifling Seattle defense, I’m not sure that’s what it comes down to.

The Seahawks are going to find ways to make some big stops. And the Patriots are still going to find ways to put points on the board. I don’t think you’ll see the Patriots accomplish that with the types of offensive twists we’ve seen them pull out this season. The Seattle D is smart and unwavering. Those players aren’t likely to be thrown off by odd formations. And they’re not going to fall for trick plays. I think the Patriots succeed against Seattle’s conservative, physical style of defense with a conservative, physical style of offense. That is, they move the ball by throwing LeGarrette Blount at the Seahawks defensive front repeatedly, forcing Seattle to commit to stopping the run. And they use short, crossing routes to keep the ball moving through the air. (This, of course, unless it turns out Richard Sherman‘s injured wing is worse than expected, in which case I can’t see how Tom Brady doesn’t try to make something happen downfield.) Not exactly rocket science, I know. But I don’t think this is a rocket science kind of game. It’s about fundamentals. And while the Patriots aren’t going to employ fundamentals to put up the 45 they scored against the Colts in the AFC Championship, or even the 35 they dropped on the Ravens in the divisional round, I think that if they execute well, they can get into the high 20s.

And that’s where I think we get to the difference in this game, which is the Patriots defense against the Seahawks offense.

I’ve never bought into the idea that defense wins championships. I mean, it does. But not in the way people think. It looks like defense wins championships, because we spend the whole regular season marveling at offensive fireworks only to have defense become a factor in the postseason when the level of competition evens out and the teams that are all about O (like, say, the Colts) run into teams that can get it done on both sides of the ball. So we conclude that defense is the key. But what really wins championships is balance. The truly great teams don’t win through just one aspect of the game. They win through two (sometimes three, but let’s not complicate this discussion with talk about special teams). They may not have the league’s top-ranked offense or top-ranked defense, but they’re usually in the top five in one area and top ten in both. They’re also balanced on both sides of the ball, running and passing, stopping the run and stopping the pass.

The Patriots are a balanced team. The Seahawks … I’m not so sure. And I think the Patriots have an opportunity to exploit Seattle’s lack of offensive balance.

It’s no secret that Seattle’s offense turns on Marshawn Lynch‘s running. In the passing game, the Seahawks lack big receiving weapons. They rely on Russell Wilson‘s elusiveness. Wilson can put up run yardage. But more important, he manages to scramble long enough for someone to get open downfield, then let’s fly with a rainbow. It’s been effective, but it’s not necessarily great strategy.

Still, the Patriots need to limit both Lynch and Wilson to keep the Seahawks offense in check. I believe they can do it. And I think this is where your twist comes in. I expect to see the Patriots roll out some elements of the 46 defense (the one employed by the Chicago Bears who stomped New England in Super Bowl XX). The Patriots have the personnel to employ 46 principles. In particular, I think they have the ability to shift their defensive line to the weak side and leave the strong side to their outside linebackers. And because they have cornerbacks who can play man coverage, New England can commit a putting a safety in the box to help limit the run and to free up a linebacker to spy Wilson. The 46 isn’t a great scheme against a team that can spread its receivers, but it is exactly the right defense when your goal is to take away the run and force a quarterback who likes long developing plays to make fast decisions.

That line shift creates blocking issues for even the best O linemen. Add the Patriots tendency to move switch around which defensive end lines up left and right, and I think we’re going to see Rob Ninkovich and Chandler Jones take turns abusing Seahawks right guard J.R. Sweezy. As a result, I think we’re going to see the sack issue that has plagued Wilson and the Seahawks this season take a toll. And maybe if Wilson gets chased around enough, he makes that bad decision I talked about earlier.

The Seahawks haven’t faced a balanced team in the postseason. And still, they needed all four quarters to beat (ahem) the Panthers, and a series of good bounces and an overtime to come back and beat the Packers. In reality, I don’t think the Seahawks have faced a balanced team since mid-October. And they haven’t beaten a balanced team since September. I think that catches up with them in this game. Seattle is good. Seattle can win this game. But I’m not sure Seattle is ready to win this game, which is to say I’m not sure they’re ready to take on a team that plays well on both offense and defense.

In the end, I like the Patriots to put up 27 points. And I think the most the Seahawks manage is 23. If the Patriots come out ahead in the turnover battle, maybe it’s more like 17. But you can’t plan for turnovers. So I’ll say Patriots, 27-23.

(Now go check out this segment from 93.9 The River in which I talk Patriots, Tom Brady and Super Bowl XLIX with Monte Belmonte.)

 

 

 

 

 

I backed the wrong  road dog in the divisional round. That’s my excuse. It’s also true. Thought Dallas would find a way to get it done in Green Bay. And, you know, they almost did (some would argue it was more than almost, though I’m not one of them). And I never for a second contemplated the remote possibility that Peyton Manning had diminished to the extent that he wouldn’t be able to overcome the Colts defense in Denver. But he had. So it goes. I came in at 2-2 straight up, 3-1 against the spread, which gets me to 3-5 and 4-4 respectively in the postseason, 172-88 and 121-135-4 overall. I need to pull even this weekend, so you’d think I’d pick conservatively. But what fun would that be? Here’s what not to expect.

Green Bay (+7.5) at Seattle
I’m still not sold on the Seahawks. I know simply saying that makes me look like an idiot to easily 50 percent of the football-watching world. And I know I’ll look like even more of an idiot if the Seahawks win this thing 43-8 and embark for Glendale as 10-point favorites to repeat as Super Bowl champions. (Yes, I know the prospective lines are -3 over the Patriots and -7 over the Colts. I’m just making a point, here, OK?) But that’s where my head’s at. And the truth is I probably am an idiot. I can live with that. The thing about the Seahawks is that they still, to my mind, haven’t beaten a complete opponent since week three. In the meantime, they dropped a home game to the Cowboys and found ways to lose on the road to the Rams (division rivals are always tough outs) and the Chiefs, who were still a contender at the time, but wouldn’t be for long. Then, starting in week 12, Seattle went on a tear, beating up on the injury-depleted Cardinals and dysfunctional 49ers a couple times each, scoring a nice road win against the faltering Eagles, and closing with a home win over the Rams. All of that made the Seattle stat line looked good, but I’m not sure it should have inspired the level of awe currently being accorded to the defending champs.

And if I’m not impressed with the fact that the Seahawks beat a weak Carolina team in the divisional round last weekend, I’m even less impressed by the way they beat the Panthers. The Seahawks D struggled to stop the run and allowed Carolina, a team that had no business even being in the playoffs, to hang around into the fourth quarter. Seattle’s offensive numbers in that game look impressive, but they lose some luster if you know how atrociously the Panthers D had performed in games against top competition during the regular season. I’m not asking Seattle to apologize for a win any more than I’d ask that of any team. But I’m still going to view the Seahawks as vulnerable to strong competition until I see evidence to the contrary. That may come this week. If Aaron Rodgers‘ mobility is limited by his ongoing calf issues, and he becomes an easy target for the Seattle pass rush, it’s going to be a long afternoon for the Packers. But if Rodgers can move around OK, enough that the Seahawks can’t tee off, I think the Green Bay offense has the weapons, between the QB and his receivers and Eddie Lacy, to put up some points in spite of the Seattle D and force the Seahawks offense to try to match them. And I’m not convinced Seattle has the offensive firepower to get that done. I’ll also say this: The Seahawks live by the turnover. They lean on turnovers for defensive stops. And, as we saw last week, they use turnovers to produce and set up points. And the Packers, by and large, don’t give the ball away. Green Bay committed a league-low 13 giveaways during the season. I think Seattle is going to have to figure out a way to produce at least one, possibly two, takeaways. If they can do that, the Seahawks probably win easily. If they can’t, this game belongs to the last team to hold the ball. My gut says that’s Green Bay. Let’s say 24-20.

Indianapolis (+6.5) at New England
I’m going to start by saying this: If you think the Colts can’t beat the Patriots in this game because they haven’t beaten the Patriots in any of their last three meetings, you’re thinking about it the wrong way. Indianapolis got to this game. Indianapolis can win this game. Thinking the Colts can’t win is like thinking the Patriots couldn’t beat the Ravens last week because they’d struggled against Baltimore in recent postseason matches. It made sense (more sense than I realized) to think Baltimore would be a tough matchup for New England, but as it turns out, every meeting between two teams is its own thing. The teams that survive to this round of the playoffs are in it for a reason. They find ways to win, sometimes when they’re not expected to. Wanted to put that out there before I said this, which also looks backward, but in a different way: In each of the past two years, I spent the week before the Conference Championship game looking for reasons to believe the Patriots could/would win. Both times, I had to stretch a bit. There were reasons to like the Pats’ chances, but they weren’t particularly strong. This year, I’ve spent the same week looking for reasons to think the Colts can or will win. I haven’t come up with much. Other than Andrew Luck, I mean. If Luck has a career day, the Colts have a solid chance. If he doesn’t … well, more on that in a bit.

This is all a way of noting that New England is in a much different position heading into this weekend this year than they have been in the recent past, possibly their best position entering the AFC Championship since 2007. So how does that play out on the field? Well, by way of another glance at the recent past, I’ll tell you that I don’t think anyone’s rushing for four TDs this time around. I mean, I know LeGarrette Blount had his turn when the Patriots hosted the Colts in the divisional round last year. And then this year, Jonas Gray got to do it when the Patriots traveled to Indianapolis back in week 11. So it’s only fair that Shane Vereen should get to be the guy this time around, right? And hell, it’s not like the Colts have figured out how to defend the run. Not in any real way, anyhow. Not unless they don’t have to worry about their opponents’ passing game. But it can’t happen. It just can’t. Because Chuck Pagano can’t let it. Really. It’s that simple. Pagano may find a way to win this game. Or Pagano may not find a way to win this game. Maybe he doesn’t even figure out a way to keep it close. But the one thing he absolutely can’t do is suffer yet another blowout loss in which the Patriots run the ball down the Colts’ throats. Because if that happens, Colts fans and the media are going to start asking questions like, “How did you not see this coming?” and “How could you not game plan for this?” So he has to game plan for it. He has to pull out all the stops to make sure the Patriots end up with far fewer than 200 yards and a handful of scores on the ground. And that, I think, is going to contribute to the Colts’ undoing. What I think happens is that Pagano commits resources to stopping the run, knowing that creates vulnerabilities against Tom Brady and the Patriots passing game, and tries to coach his DBs and edge rushers into playing the game of their lives to keep from getting burned. I also think he favors LaRon Landry over Sergio Brown at free safety (which has been his practice for a while now, anyhow) because Landry is better suited to helping with run defense. And that should present Rob Gronkowski with some very favorable matchups. I think that when Gronk releases rather than run blocks, the Colts are going to have a problem on their hands. As they will with the matchups between the Patriots’ receivers and the Colts’ questionable DBs. And the matchup between Brady and a Colts defensive front that likes to bring pressure from the outside rather than up the middle.

So how, then, does Pagano’s team get to that win that I’m not willing to rule out? Well, they need to do it on offense. As noted, they need their quarterback have the kind of exceptional game he’s capable of. They also need to use the run to control the ball and keep the New England offense off the field. And they need to avoid the turnovers that have been a problem for them all season — and that might have proved their undoing last week had the Broncos not been imploding. If the Colts can manage all of those things, they have a good chance. Two out of three, they don’t lose too bad. If they only get one out of three, it’s probably a bloodbath. Me, I suspect that on a cold, rainy, windy night in Foxborough — in a season in which the Patriots feature their best defense in a decade — you can probably count on the Colts to pull of one out of three. So I’m expecting a bloodbath. Not in the first half, because the Patriots don’t take control of games in the first half, but by the time all is said and done. Patriots, 45-20.

 

Ugh. That’s about all I can say about my performance picking the wildcard games. After finishing the regular season on a high note, and coming in at a respectable 170-86 (.664) straight up, and a not-so-respectable but entirely predictable 118-134-4 (.469) against the spread, I took a beating in the first week of the playoffs: 1-3 (.250) straight up and ATS. Ugh. So what happened? I thought too little of Carolina. I thought too much of Pittsburgh. And the coin landed wrong side up on Cincinnati-Indianapolis. So why bother picking this week’s games. I don’t know, really. Because I’m in this deep. That’s part of it. And, you know, given that I rode effectively the same winning percentages through the regular season, you’ve gotta figure I’m in for a correction. That would mean a perfect week straight up, and at least a 2-2, maybe 3-1 finish against the spread. So I’ve got that going for me, which is nice. Or, you know, I guess I could conceivably go 0-4, 0-4 this week. We’ll see. Here’s what not to expect.

Baltimore (+7) at New England
I don’t know if you’ve heard about this, but apparently Joe Flacco is a different quarterback in the postseason. He goes from being mostly solid and respectable to completely unbeatable. It’s true. I mean, that’s what I’ve read anyhow. And it’s certainly true that Flacco’s Ravens have won five straight playoff games, including a Super Bowl, and that Flacco looked really good against the Steelers last week. You can’t take any of that away from them. Neither, however, should you leave out that the latest game of the Ravens’ postseason win streak is separated from the other four by a 2013 season in which Baltimore finished 8-8 and missed the tournament. Or that the current iteration of the Ravens doesn’t bear much resemblance to the one that snagged the Lombardi Trophy two years ago. But maybe that doesn’t matter, because the other thing I keep hearing about with this game is that the Ravens have the Patriots number in the playoffs. They’ve won two out of three games against New England in Foxborough during the tenures of Flacco and head coach John Harbaugh. The numbers there are not in dispute. One of those wins was the 2012 AFC Championship, the game that sent Baltimore to Super Bowl XLVII. Flacco had a good day in that game, too. For the other Ravens playoffs win in New England, you have to go back to the Wild Card round of 2009. Flacco wasn’t a Factor that day (he went 4 of 10 for 34 yards — and, yes, he played the whole game). The Ravens were carried by a crushing defense and a running back whose name isn’t suitable for print (not because he beat the Patriots in 2009; because he beat his fiancée in 2014). They don’t have either of those things to lean on in this game. The loss came in the AFC Championship of 2011. Flacco was pretty good in that game, too. In fact, what I keep hearing is that the Ravens should have won that game. Lost it because of a well defended pass in the end zone (it wasn’t a drop; not by any definition; watch the tape) and a missed attempt to tie the score with a field goal in the closing seconds. Neither of those things was Flacco’s fault, of course. But, you know, I’m not big on talk about how a team “could have” or “should have” won a game. They didn’t. That was the Ravens last loss in the playoffs, by the way. But it wasn’t their last loss to the Patriots. That came in December 2013, when the Patriots went into Baltimore and beat the living bejesus out of the Ravens. No one’s been talking about that this week. And fair enough; it has little to no bearing on this meeting between these two teams. Just like the 2009 Wild Card game, the 2011 AFC Championship and the 2012 AFC Championship. But shhhhhhhhhhhh. Here’s what does have some bearing on this game. The 2014 Patriots are a balanced team. The 2014 Ravens are not. The Patriots are better overall on both sides of the ball and they’ve achieved more this season against tougher opposition.

The Ravens run the ball a bit better than the Patriots. And Baltimore has a great defensive front. And while I think the idea that Flacco becomes a great quarterback for five weeks as soon as the ball drops on New Years Eve, it’s also true that he’s not exactly a mouse footman. He’s solid in the regular season, sometimes great, sometimes not so great, rarely awful. And taken as a whole, his postseason career also has been solid. What the Ravens don’t have is much of a defensive secondary. That will prove to be a problem as long as the Patriots offensive line can protect Tom Brady (or, you know, assuming Brady still has a quicker release than Ben Roethlisberger and won’t be standing there expecting he can get the ball to his receivers while pass rushers bounce off of him). Neither have they shown much ability this season to deal with tight ends, something that, um, may present a bit of a problem for them on Saturday. It will also be interesting to see how the Ravens running game fares given that Darrelle Revis‘s ability to take away Baltimore’s first receiving option by himself provides the Patriots with the option of moving a safety up into the box on first down. So here’s what it comes down to. Sure, the Ravens might pull into Foxborough and beat the Patriots again. The Ravens are a damned good team; they can beat any of the eight teams still alive in the playoffs if things go the right way. But it’s not going to be easy, no matter what you might have heard about Flacco’s postseason mojo or the Ravens’ New England magic. And I don’t think it’s likely. I think it’s close through halftime (I won’t be at all surprised if the Ravens have a slight lead a the half), but New England takes control in the third quarter. It should, and probably will, be a better game than this implies, but I’m looking for the Patriots to put the other bookend on the Ravens’ postseason win streak, coming out on top by 10.

Carolina (+11) at Seattle
I’m not sold on the idea that the Seattle Seahawks have become some kind of unstoppable force just in time for the playoffs. The defending champions look like a great team. They may actually be a great team. But I’d like to see them beat a respectable opponent — something they haven’t accomplished since week three (nobody believes me when I say this, but it’s true; see for yourself) — before I buy into the idea that they’re destined to repeat as champs. That said, it remains the case that the Carolina Panthers don’t really belong in the playoffs. Look at this.

And don’t know what you focus on, but here’s what grabs me: Five yards per carry. Five. That tells me Beast Mode is gonna be in feast mode. And that’s about all I need to know. Seahawks by 20.

Dallas (+5.5) at Green Bay
I don’t want to pick this game. Really, I don’t. Not without knowing whether Aaron Rodgers is going to be playing on two legs or one, anyhow. Because here’s the deal: Yeah, the Packers don’t lose at home (except that sometimes in the playoffs they do), but the Cowboys have been great on the road this season. And, yeah, the Green Bay defense has been better against the run down the stretch than they were early in the season, but they’ve struggled throughout against good teams with strong ground games. But I think ultimately the way you keep DeMarco Murray from eating you alive is not with your defense (at least not if you’re the Packers) but with your offense. You pile up the points and force the Cowboys to go away from the run in order to keep up. Doing that also put you in a position to take advantage of the critical mistake Tony Romo is destined to make at some point in this postseason. And that strategy should be one Green Bay can execute, even in the face of a very good Dallas D, as long as Rodgers is up to the task. But that’s the question. It’s hard to move on a bad calf. And the more you do it, the harder it gets. So my guess is, the Cowboys, though pass rush is not the strength of their D, are going to look for ways to force Rodgers out of the pocket and see what happens as the game wears on. If Rodgers holds up, the Packers come out ahead by at least a field goal. If he doesn’t, it could be a tough day for the fans at Lambeau. I’m not at all confident in this, but given that the injury has been reported as a tear as well as a strain, I’m going to assume his mobility is going to be a problem. I’m holding my breath and taking Dallas to win it by something like four.

Indianapolis (+7) at Denver
This is a weird thing to say, but the way you beat the Denver Broncos in 2014 is that you take away the run and force Peyton Manning to throw the ball. The Colts simply don’t have the ability to do that. And even if they find a way, it will leave them vulnerable enough that Manning, even in the thick of duck season, will be able to pick their secondary apart. I see exactly one way the Colts can win this game and it’s that Andrew Luck has a near-perfect day. That, plus a few good bounces, could do the job. But you can’t count on either of those things happening. Not with Luck’s iffy track record against top competition. And not when the ball is bouncing on someone else’s field. Which is to say, not in this game. Denver by six.

Here’s where things get messed up. Or, you know, more messed up. Picking straight up worked out OK for me in the regular season. With an 11-5 finish in week 17, I came in at 170-86 (.664) for the year. That ain’t so bad. Against the spread, on the other hand … . I went 9-7 in the final weekend of the season, which is about as good as I’ve even done. That lifted my season record to a truly laughable 118-134-4 (.469). So I should expect to go maybe 3-1 straight up, 1-3 or 2-2 against the spread in the wild card games, right? Except I won’t. Wild card weekend is always brutal for me. Because there are always upsets. Sometimes three of them. But I can never tell where they’re coming from. So here we go. Here’s what really, really not to expect this weekend.

Arizona (+6.5) at Carolina
This game shouldn’t be as tough to pick as it is. Carolina has no business in the postseason. Not only did the Panthers “win” the awful NFC South with a losing record (7-8-1), but they haven’t logged a victory over a respectable opponent since they topped the Lions back in week two. Carolina’s four-game win streak to end the season came via a game each against the rest of their deplorable division plus a game against a Cleveland Browns squad that had packed it in for the year. Prior to that “strong finish” the Panthers were 3-8-1 and had been winless since week five. So there are your NFC South champs. If the visiting Cardinals weren’t one injury away from having to line up Curly Joe Derita behind center, it would make picking this game incredibly easy. But the fact is, Arizona’s third-sting quarterback Ryan Lindley hasn’t exactly been lighting it up. And one has to wonder how far a defense, however good, and a running back who was on the practice squad a month ago can possibly carry a team. It’s fun to think the Cardinals can keep finding ways to make it work, but the reality is the kind of injury-plagued season Arizona has experienced inevitably and invariably catches up with a team. The question isn’t whether the Cardinals will bow out of the tournament, but when. I suppose when it comes down to it, I have to give the Cardinals another week. I need to pick a winner in this match, and my gut says you take the team that’s got it done with tough play and great coaching over the team that’s fallen ass backward into the least impressive slot in the playoffs. Makes sense, right? Arizona by a field goal.

Baltimore (+3) at Pittsburgh
The Steelers are going to need to get Le’Veon Bell back on the field at some point if they’re going to have any chance of advancing deep into the playoffs, but I think they’ll be OK without him this week. Not sure why, but I’ve got this weird hunch Pittsburgh can beat Baltimore through the air. I expect to see a high-scoring affair with a number of lead changes, but I also expect to see the Steelers come out on top. By at least four.

 

Cincinnati (+3.5) at Indianapolis
I’ve been trying all week, without much success, to figure out which of these two teams I think less of. Both teams are paper tigers that have spent their seasons feasting on week opponents while stumbling when faced with stout opposition. The Colts went 2-3 in regular season games against playoff opponents, surrendering 27.6 points a game with a defensive passer rating of 98.3. The Bengals went 3-4-1 against playoff teams in the regular season, giving up 30.5 points a game. They were better than Indy against the pass, but horrifically bad against the run, allowing 130.8 yards per game and 10 rushing TDs in their eight games against contenders. And neither Andrew Luck nor Andy Dalton performed well enough consistently enough in the tough games to make me believe either can carry a team to a conference championship, let alone a Super Bowl. Honestly, I’m not sure either of them would have beat Baltimore or Pittsburgh this week. But they didn’t get the Ravens or Steelers; they got each other. And since it’s the playoffs, one of these teams literally has to win. I think that team is Cincinnati. I think the Bengals have enough of a pass D to slow down the Colts’ air attack and an offense that’s balanced enough to keep the Indianapolis defense on its heels. Unlike these teams’ regular season meeting, back in week seven, I think this one will be close throughout. And unlike that earlier match, I think this one goes to the visitor. Bengals by a point.

Detroit (+6.5) at Dallas
You can spend a lot of time, and many people have, talking about what this game — this postseason, really — means for Tony Romo. And fair enough, I suppose. If Romo is ever going to be anything more than a regular season stats machine who chokes in the playoffs, he’s, you know, going to need to have some success in the playoffs. But I don’t think this game is about Tony Romo any more than I think this Cowboys season has been about Tony Romo. This game, for Dallas, is about DeMarco Murray. For Detroit, it’s about whether the league’s best run D can hold strong against Murray. If the Lions can do that, if they can make the Cowboys offense one dimensional, they’ll give themselves a shot at an upset. But not enough of a shot, I think. I suspect Detroit will make this one tough on Dallas, but will come up just short. Cowboys by three.

 

 

Wow. What happened to the 2014 season? Seems like I just finished counting down to the opener. And now I’m down to my last chance to embarrass myself before the playoffs. Here’s the deal so far: After my hopelessly uneven finish in week sixteen — 9-7 straight up, 6-9-1 against the spread — my season records stand at at 159-81 (.663) straight up and 109-127-4 (.462) against the spread. Let’s see how badly I can mess things up in just a single week, shall we? Here’s what not to expect.

Jacksonville (+9.5) at Houston
The Texans are never going to get all the help they need to land the final spot in the AFC playoffs. But they’ll certainly do their part. And Houston is simply a far better team than Jacksonville. Texans by ten.

Indianapolis (-7) at Tennessee
The Colts aren’t going much of anywhere in the postseason. They might yet win their wild card round game, particularly if they get the Bengals, but that should just about do it. But the Titans aren’t the Bengals. Indy by nine.

Cleveland (+13.5) at Baltimore
The Ravens are shooting for the AFC six seed. The Browns are preparing for 2015 (not well, mind you; they’re still the Browns). Baltimore by 17.

Buffalo (+5) at New England
I don’t know. The Patriots have nothing to play for, and every reason to focus mainly on not getting anyone hurt. That should translate to a loss. But the Bills are in enough of a state of disarray that maybe the Patriots backups will be able to beat them. I just really have no idea what to expect. I’ll go with New England, but only by a field goal (followed by two weeks of Boston sports radio talk about how the inability of the second string to put this game away spells trouble for the Patriots in the postseason).

NY Jets (+6) at Miami
Something tells me the Jets spent everything they had left last week. Dolphins by a touchdown.

Chicago (+6) at Minnesota
Neither of these teams is going anywhere in 2014. But the Vikings at least are pointed in the right direction for 2015. That’s gotta be good for something, right? Minnesota by a field goal.

San Diego (pick ’em) at Kansas City
I’m not sure Alex Smith’s absence from this game punches the Chargers’ ticket to the postseason. The Chiefs losing Smith simply doesn’t change the fundamental dynamic of the matchup, which is this: San Diego’s offense isn’t equipped to overcome the Kansas City defense; and San Diego’s defense isn’t structured to limit Kansas City’s run-focused ball control offense. If the Chargers are going to win, they’re going to need to come out ahead in the turnover battle by +2, and I simply don’t see that happening. Chiefs by a field goal.

Philadelphia (+2.5) at NY Giants
Yeah, um, Giants, I guess. Because why not? One of these teams has to win. Or not lose. Whatever. Let’s say by four.

Dallas (-4.5) at Washington
The Cowboys are the NFC three seed no matter how this game turns out (because they’re just not getting the silly help they would need to move up). But they should still beat the living bejesus out of the Racists, even if it’s just to flex their muscles some as they head into the postseason. Dallas by 14.

New Orleans (-4) at Tampa Bay
The Bucs secure the first overall pick in the 2015 NFL draft. It will be interesting to see how they squander it. Saints by six.

St. Louis (+12.5) at Seattle
Well, sure, I think we’d all love to see the Cardinals get another chance by way of a Seahawks loss to the visiting Rams. That’s pretty enough to think about, I suppose. But it’s not exactly in tune with reality. Seattle by 17.

Arizona (+6.5) at San Francisco
I don’t care who Arizona’s starting quarterback is or where this game is being played, the Cardinals are just a better team than the 49ers. Arizona by a point.

Oakland (+14) at Denver
Watch the media fall in love with Peyton Manning all over again. For two weeks. Denver by 10.

Carolina (+3.5) at Atlanta
What a rare treat it will be next week to watch a seven-win team hosting a postseason game. The Falcons are at home, so let’s figure they carry the day. Atlanta by three.

Detroit (+7.5) at Green Bay
Things have changed considerably for the Packers since their week three loss in Detroit. Considerably. Green Bay sews up the division and the conference two seed with a six-point victory.

Cincinnati (+3.5) at Pittsburgh
The Bengals inability to stop the run translates to an inability to hold onto the NFC North title. Steelers by seven.

I should probably stop and remind myself that the whole reason for point spreads is to make sure at least half of the people making picks get it wrong. If I could do that, I could probably live with an 8-8 finish against the spread, which is what I got in week fifteen. That’s not awful, particularly when you leave real money out of the mix. And my 12-4 record straight up was nothing to sneeze at. So I should probably feel good. And I do, about the fact that I’m 150-74 (.670) straight up on the season. But, man, would it be nice to go into the last two weeks with at least a shot of coming out even in my picks against the spread. At 103-118-3 (.466), though, that’s clearly not in the cards. Oh, well. Here’s what not to expect in week sixteen.

Tennessee (+3) at Jacksonville
The tradition of outstanding Thursday night football continues as the 2-12 Titans take on the 2-12 Jaguars in a classic battle for the basement. Beyond that, you know, I’m just not sure what to say about this game. These teams have given up 104 sacks between them. How’s that? Interesting enough for you? Yeah, me neither. Obviously, one has to suspect the team with the quarterback who spends the least time in this game on his back is the team that comes out on top. But which one that will be, I have no idea. So I’ll just go along with the oddsmakers and figure the home team comes out on top by the default three.

Philadelphia (-7.5) at Washington
The Eagles had a chance to sew up the NFC East last week and they squandered it. But if Philadelphia wins out and Dallas drops one of its last two games, the Eagles still come away with the division title (by way of a tie with the Cowboys, a head-to-head split and a better division record). And the reality is that Philadelphia would have to be about six degrees beyond officially eliminated for Washington to have even a hint of a chance in this game. Eagles by 20.

San Diego (+1.5) at San Francisco
It’s a pretty safe bet the league and CBS didn’t view this as a likely battle of also-rans when they plugged it into a prime time slot. But that’s what they got. The 49ers are officially out of postseason contention. The Chargers need more help than they have a real chance of getting. And, honestly, even if San Diego had a real incentive to find a way to win, I’d be hard pressed to take a team quarterbacked by a guy who throws as many interceptions as Philip Rivers to beat a team that picks off as many balls as San Francisco. Niners by four.

Minnesota (+6.5) at Miami
On one hand, I’m inclined to wonder if the pasting they took in Foxborough might send the Dolphins into a tailspin over the final two weeks of the season. On the other, I have trouble getting my head around just what the Vikings are as a team. And I can’t take a mystery squad to win on the road based solely on a hunch about their opponents. So I’ll look for Miami to win it, but I’m not giving six and a half. Four, tops.

Green Bay (-10.5) at Tampa Bay
It’s this simple: All the Packers need to do to put their off day in Buffalo behind them and position themselves for a chance to take the NFC North title — not to mention, most likely, the conference two seed and its attendant first-round bye — when they host Detroit next weekend is secure a win over the Buccaneers. And all the Bucs need to do to hold onto the first overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft is lose their last two games. Given those circumstances, do you think there’s any chance this is still a game at halftime? I don’t. Packers by double the spread, easy.

Detroit (-7) at Chicago
The Lions don’t need to win this game to maintain a shot at the division title. Win or lose here, the NFC North comes down to next week’s game in Green Bay. (That is, unless the Packers find a way to lose to the Buccaneers. But, um, see above.) Detroit does need a win, however, to keep alive its hopes of holding onto the two seed, or even stealing the one. And, you know, the Bears have thrown in the towel. So there’s that. Lions by thirteen.

Atlanta (+6) at New Orleans
Here’s another game that probably looked like a potentially critical division matchup back when the schedule was being put together. Not so much now that the, ahem, 6-8 Saints are, ahem, fairly solidly, ahem, in control of the division. But I don’t see anything that tells me New Orleans wins this game by more than a field goal. So there you have it: Saints by three.

New England (-10) at NY Jets
Division rivalry business aside, it’s very hard to see any way this game isn’t an outright bloodbath. I’ll say two things: First, the Jets pass defense is the worst in the league. By a lot. Second, the takeaway/giveaway differential between these teams is a +22 in the Patriots favor (New England, +11; New Jersey, -11). There’s more. Plenty more. But I don’t really feel a need to go any deeper. Do you? New England by 28.

Kansas City (+3) at Pittsburgh
This is the end of the road for the Chiefs. Kansas City can’t stop the run. And Pittsburgh is well positioned to make them pay for that problem all afternoon. Steelers by at least a touchdown.

Cleveland (+4) at Carolina
Nice call on the Johnny Football thing, coach. The Panthers keep their ridiculous (and fake) postseason hopes alive with a seven-point victory.

Baltimore (-5.5) at Houston
The Ravens don’t have much hope of overtaking the Steelers for the AFC North title (I’m aware that the Bengals are in that spot now, but they’re not staying there — see below), but they do have a shot at overtaking Cincinnati for the five seed. And I don’t think they even need to win this game to make that happen. Which is good news for the Ravens, because they’re not winning this game. (Yes. You’re right. It’s utterly absurd to pick a team without a quarterback to win a football game. But I’m doing it anyhow.) Texans by a field goal.

NY Giants (+5) at St. Louis
Fumble! Recovered by the Rams. St. Louis by six.

Buffalo (-6) at Oakland
If you can beat the Packers one week, you’d damned well better be able to beat the Raiders the next. Bills by 10.

Indianapolis (+3) at Dallas
Statistically speaking, these teams are nearly identical — except that the Cowboys have a running game. Thing is, though, the Dallas running game has a broken hand. Got that? The whole running game got a broken hand. And I don’t care how good he is, a running back with a broken hand is a critical turnover waiting to happen. That’s what I think decides the contest. Colts edge out a win by a point.

Seattle (-8) at Arizona
You know, I really want to believe the Cardinals can win this game. Really. And that’s me being a Seahawks hater. I’m not. Neither am I some kind of bandwagon Cardinals fan. It’s just that the emotional part of me wants very badly to believe that a well coached, well constructed team like Arizona can endure injury after ruinous injury and still find a way to succeed. The detached realist in me, on the other hand, sees very clearly the handwriting on the wall. I think the Cardinals defense digs deep at home and finds a way to keep this much closer than eight, but I’ve still got the Seahawks coming out ahead. Let’s figure by three.

Denver (-3.5) at Cincinnati
The Bengals are the second fakest division leaders in the NFL after the Saints. That’s all I have to say. Denver by six.

I don’t mean to startle anyone, but my results in week fourteen were brutally uneven. Crazy, right? I finished 12-4 straight up, which is pretty good, and 6-9-1 against the spread, which is damned awful. On the season, I’m now 138-70 (.663) straight up, 95-110-3 (.463) against the spread. This is where I repeat my line about how glad I am that I don’t gamble. And then it’s straight on to all the stuff that won’t come to pass in week fifteen, also known as what not to expect.

Arizona (+4.5) at St. Louis
I know St. Louis has logged a pair of impressive outings these last two weeks. And I know everyone’s waiting for Arizona to fall apart. But the Cardinals aren’t the Raiders or the Racists. And the Rams aren’t the Seahawks. So I’m banking on Arizona getting to 11 wins and clinching a playoff spot before surrendering the NFC West crown to Seattle next week. Cardinals by a field goal.

Oakland (+10) at Kansas City
Last time these two teams met — a whole three weeks ago — the Chiefs were 7-3 and hot on the heels of the Broncos in the AFC West race. Kansas City’s fortunes could hardly have changed any more dramatically than they have as a result of the three-game skid that started with their tough loss in Oakland.  The losing streak has pretty much wiped out the Chiefs’ chances of reaching the postseason. KC hasn’t been eliminated numerically, but the Chiefs need more help than they’re likely to get. Still, they’re not bad enough to suffer a season sweep at the hands of an ultimately inferior division rival. Kansas City wins this one decisively. Probably by a pair of touchdowns.

Jacksonville (+13.5) at Baltimore
See, because the kind of things the Chiefs would need in order to get into the tournament include the Jaguars going into Baltimore and beating the Ravens. And in football, just like in everything else, there are things that can happen and things that simply can’t. Baltimore by 20.

Pittsburgh (-2.5) at Atlanta
I suspect that what’s going to happen in the end is that the Saints are going to carry the NFC South at an almost respectable 8-8. Until that comes to pass, however, every loss by one of the two 5-8 NFC South “leaders” increases the potential for a 7-9 (or, hell, 5-11) team to host a 12-4 or 11-5 team in the first round of the playoffs. Here comes one of those losses. The Falcons may be able to keep it close against the unimpressive Steelers pass D, but in the end I think Pittsburgh takes control by running the ball down Atlanta’s throats. Steelers by a point.

Houston (+6.5) at Indianapolis
You know what? As crazy as it may be even to consider the possibility of the Colts missing an opportunity to clinch the AFC South — not to mention damaging their chances of snatching the conference two seed from the Patriots or Broncos — particularly against a team they beat in Houston back in October, I smell an upset coming here. Texans win the turnover battle this time around and exact a bit of revenge against their division foes. Houston by a field goal.

Cincinnati (pick ’em) at Cleveland
It should be fun to watch everyone get worked up about the greatness of Johnny Manziel after the Cleveland defense manhandles Cincinnati (once again) to complete the season sweep. Browns by a touchdown.

Miami (-7.5) at New England
The Dolphins are probably a slightly better team now than they were in week one when they outscored the Patriots 23-0 in the second half and sacked Tom Brady four times en route to a 33-20 victory. The problem for Miami, though, is that New England now is a much better team than it was then. Brady hasn’t taken more than two sacks in any game since the opener. And the Patriots, over a just-concluded brutal stretch of schedule that saw them face the Broncos, Colts, Lions, Packers and Chargers, allowed a total of 30 second half points, including just three touchdowns, while scoring 71, with nine TDs. (Also, 24 of those second half points allowed, and all three TDs, were in the first two of those games. In their last home game, against Detroit, and the two-game road swing to Green Bay and San Diego, New England gave up just six total second half points.) Add a rather significant difference in weather conditions and a revived New England ground game that Miami has little chance of stopping and I think you have a formula for a rout. Patriots wrap up their sixth straight AFC East title, winning by three touchdowns.

Tampa Bay (+4.5) at Carolina
Even without Cam Newton in the lineup, the Panthers should be able to dispatch the Buccaneers. But even with Netwon, Carolina wouldn’t have won this game by more than a field goal. Panthers by three.

Washington (+6.5) at NY Giants
It’s hardly a compliment to say that a team is at least somewhat better than the Racists. But there you have it. Giants by a touchdown.

Green Bay (-5) at Buffalo
The Packers may not be quite the force away from Lambeau Field that they are at home. And Green Bay may be traveling on a short week. But, um, come on, now. Green Bay by no less than a touchdown.

Minnesota (+8) at Detroit
The Vikings have certainly improved since the last time these teams met. That’s nice and all. But what does it mean? Maybe Minnesota puts up 10 points this time. And, you know, maybe Detroit doesn’t miss a pair of field goals. So if the Lions took the last one by 14 and my math has the Vikings closing the gap by a net of one point, that gets us to Detroit by 13. Exciting.

NY Jets (-1.5) at Tennessee
This should be riveting. Jets by a field goal.

Denver (-4) at San Diego
The Chargers ought to be able to pull off the upset here, what with duck season having arrived in Denver and all. If they were a serious postseason contender, the Chargers would pull off the upset here. But they aren’t. The Chargers have been frauds all season and frauds they remain. They’re not taking this one, and they’re probably not making the playoffs. Though I suspect San Diego will make it look like a game for about three quarters, in the end, Denver comes out ahead by three.

San Francisco (+9.5) at Seattle
When the home team is surging and the road team is falling apart, it gets pretty easy to make a call. Seahawks by 16.

Dallas (+3.5) at Philadelphia
The Cowboys couldn’t get it done against the Eagles at home on Thanksgiving. I don’t see any reason to think they can turn things around in Philadelphia 17 days later. The Eagles effectively, though not literally, wrap up the NFC East title with a six-point win.

New Orleans (-3) at Chicago
Three pieces of good news for the Saints: They’re on the road, where they occasionally win a game. Even at 5-8, they have the inside track to the NFC South “championship.” And, best of all, the Bears have an atrocious pass defense. New Orleans by a touchdown.

I gonna blame it on Thanksgiving. And the nor’easter that hit the day before. Because, yeah, it can’t just be me. There has to be some external cause of my poor picking in week thirteen. I finished 8-8 straight up, 6-10 against the spread. Yeesh. For the season, that puts me at 126-66 (.656, which isn’t awful) straight up, 89-101-2 (.468, which is pretty awful) against the spread. Let’s see how much farther I can fall this week. Here’s what not to expect.

Dallas (-3.5) at Chicago
Heading into their Thanksgiving matchup with the Eagles, the Cowboys must have looked at their December schedule, realized they only had two certain losses on the way, and decided to get an early start on their annual late-season fade. Dallas may yet find a way to lose this game — like they did when they went into Chicago in week 14 of last season — but I can’t see what it might be. Even so, I wouldn’t give more than three. Cowboys by a field goal.

Baltimore (+2.5) at Miami
The Ravens are getting two and a half? From the Dolphins? The same Dolphins who barely escaped the one-dimensional Jets on Monday night? Yeah, that totally makes sense. Baltimore by a touchdown.

Pittsburgh (+3) at Cincinnati
With Cleveland headed for a loss to Indianapolis and a sweep of the season series with Baltimore already in the bag, Cincinnati has a chance to effectively (though not numerically) sew up the the AFC North title here. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Bengals wilt, but given the uncertainty about Ben Roethlisberger’s wrist, I’m not going to bet on it. Cincinnati by six.

Indianapolis (-3.5) at Cleveland
While I certainly agree that sticking with Brian Hoyer gives the Browns their best chance to win this game, I’m not sure the Browns “best chance” is actually that great of a chance. I do think the Browns defense can limit Andrew Luck‘s production, so I don’t expect a blowout. But I still think the Colts come out on top. Let’s say by a field goal.

Houston (-5) at Jacksonville
There’s a possibility that what we saw last week wasn’t simply a meltdown by the Giants, but also an indication that the Jaguars are starting to round into form. Of course, it’s an outside possibility. And the Texans still have a chance, however slim, at qualifying for the postseason. So I’m gonna hold off getting excited about Jacksonville for a little while longer. Houston by a touchdown.

NY Giants (pick ’em) at Tennessee
There’s also a possibility that what we saw last week wasn’t anything more than the Giants transitioning from a team struggling through a season with a roster depleted by departures and injuries to a team in utter disarray. And that makes this game tough to pick. The Giants ought to have it in them to beat the Titans, but you don’t win many football games when you can’t keep your locker room focused. I’m reluctantly taking the home team, which I guess feels slightly better than reluctantly taking the visitors. But only slightly. Titans by a point.

Carolina (+9.5) at New Orleans
The Saints can both end a three-game home losing streak and, with the Falcons headed for a big loss Monday night in Green Bay, take control of the NFC South by beating up on a Panthers squad that appears to be more interested in preparing for 2015 than finishing 2014 with more than three games in the win column. That’s a deal even the hot-and-cold Saints can’t pass up. New Orleans by 13.

Tampa Bay (+9.5) at Detroit
The Lions aren’t out of the NFC North race yet. Win this one, next week’s home game against the Vikings, and their week 16 road game against the Bears, and the Lions can go into the final week of the season with a chance to surprise the Packers in Green Bay (which would complete a sweep in the season series) and take the division. That last part isn’t going to happen, but, if nothing else, I like Detroit’s chances to make that final game count. And I certainly like the Lions’ chances to get December off to a strong start with a win over the awful Buccaneers. I’m not taking a team that scores fewer than 20 points a game to win by nine and a half over any team on any field. But I don’t think a seven-point Lions win is too much to expect.

St. Louis (-2.5) at Washington
It doesn’t matter who you start at quarterback if you can’t keep him upright. Rams by four.

NY Jets (+6) at Minnesota
The Vikings don’t have much of a run defense. So I’ll look for New Jersey to hold Minnesota’s margin of victory to a field goal.

Buffalo (+9.5) at Denver
The Bills have a tough final quarter of the season ahead. After this game, they go home to host the Packers. Then they get a little break with a trip to Oakland before they head to Foxborough to round out the season. To me, that looks a lot like 7-5 and a shot at the playoffs turning into 8-8 and wait till next year. Denver by two touchdowns.

Kansas City (+1) at Arizona
I don’t know how to pick this game. Both teams are fading fast, but one of them has to win. If it weren’t for Andre Ellington’s injury, I’d feel pretty good about the Cardinals, figuring their ability to stop the run combined with the Chiefs’ vulnerability to the run would end up making the difference. But Ellington’s hurt, and I don’t know that Arizona can do much damage through the air. I guess that all means that I’m not expecting much offense from either team. Maybe that means this thing turns on a big defensive play. If that’s the case, you’ve got to like the Cardinals. And that’s where I’m going. I suppose. Arizona by a point.

San Francisco (-8.5) at Oakland
Sometimes home field isn’t really home field. Niners by ten.

Seattle (+1) at Philadelphia
With Arizona dropping off, this game has the potential to decide which of these teams gets a first-round bye in January. The winner also has a shot at snagging the NFC one seed. Neither of those things is a small prize. Of course, none of that gets anyone any closer to figuring out how this game is likely to turn out. Really, almost nothing does. It should be a hell of a game. In the end, I guess I like Marshawn Lynch‘s chances of breaking through the Philadelphia run D better than LeSean McCoy‘s odds of running successfully against Seattle. And I definitely don’t like Mark Sanchez‘s prospects of throwing successfully against the Seattle secondary. So I guess I’ll take the Seahawks to win it outright.

New England (-3.5) at San Diego
You can talk about Tom Brady being angry about the Patriots loss to Green Bay if you like. You can talk about New England rarely losing two straight. But I don’t think Brady or any of his teammates really need to tap into their feelings about one game to find motivation to win another. It’s December. This is a divisional matchup with another team making a push for the postseason. What’s it matter what happened last week? What matters this week is that the Patriots are playing for the AFC one seed. What matters more is that the Chargers defense has trouble pressuring the passer, which is to say that San Diego doesn’t have the tools to slow down the New England offense. Neither do the Chargers have the offensive weapons to prevail in a shootout with the Patriots. So, yeah, I like New England. And I don’t think it’s nearly so close as three and a half. Patriots by 14.

Atlanta (+12) at Green Bay
And the NFC South title goes to New Orleans. Green Bay by 20.