This Football Blog

Well, at least my season started on a positive note. And I’ll always have that, for whatever little it’s worth.

As for right now, I’m mired in mediocrity. I finished week five 9-5 straight up, 7-7 against the spread. Nothing to weep over (especially for someone who doesn’t actually gamble), but not exactly bragging material. So, here I stand, 47-30 (.610) straight up, 36-41 (.468) against the spread.

Let’s see if I can’t figure out a way to do even worse this week.

Here’s what not to expect.

Denver (-7) at San Diego
I don’t think the Chargers are likely to lose by way of a late-game collapse this week. And that would be a nice change of pace, one supposes, except for the likelihood that San Diego will lose in a much more conventional manner. I don’t think it’s ever a good idea to give a touchdown to the home team in a division matchup on a short week, though. So let’s go with Denver by six.

Cincinnati (+9) at New England
I don’t know if you’ve heard about this, but, um, Tom Brady‘s back. Got his season off to a nice little start last weekend, too. And that’s not such great news for the Bengals’ D, which has not fared well in games against strong opponents so far this season. Here’s what the big three predictive stats say: Scoring differential, Patriots +5.8; passer rating differential, Patriots, +10.3; takeaway/giveaway differential, Patriots +2. (And let’s not forget that New England’s stats are calculated based on four out of five games played without Brady.) Add in that the Bengals are on the road for a second straight week, and consider that the Bengals are no better at stopping the run (4.4 yards per carry) than they are at stopping the pass, and I think you get a fairly comfortable win for the Patriots. New England by two touchdowns.

Baltimore (+3) at NY Giants
The Ravens open their two-week residency in the Meadowlands with a close loss to the better of the New Jersey teams. Giants by a point.

Carolina (-3) at New Orleans
The Panthers expect to have Cam Newton back on the field for this game. That should get the job done. Panthers by four.

Pittsburgh (-7.5) at Miami
The Steelers will be ahead two scores before the home fans have had a chance to catch up with the Dolphins’ shifting roster. Pittsburgh by 17.

Jacksonville (+2.5) at Chicago
That’s right. Brian Hoyer. Bears by a field goal.

San Francisco (+8) at Buffalo
I want Colin Kaepernick to succeed because I admire the political stance he’s taken. Trouble is, this is a football game, not a debate. And the truth about Kaepernick is that he’s just not that good at football. The other difficult truth facing the 49ers is that it doesn’t matter who you start at quarterback (or any offensive position) when your biggest problem is the complete inability of your D to stop the opposing team’s run game. I have hunch that might pose a bit of a problem for San Francisco here. Bills by 10.

Los Angeles (+3.5) at Detroit
When neither team has a defense, you go with the one that has an actual offense. Especially if that team is at home. Lions by six.

Cleveland (+7) at Tennessee
If the Browns can get through an entire game with the same guy taking snaps, that’ll be a kind of victory in itself. Titans by nine.

Philadelphia (-2) at Washington
I know it’s the Eagles’ second straight road game (and the first didn’t go so well) and that it’s a division match. But I just have a hard time seeing Philadelphia dropping this one, particularly given Washington’s ineffectiveness against the run. Eagles by a field goal.

Kansas City (+1) at Oakland
Maybe Kansas City will come back from its early bye week having sprouted a run defense. But, you know, probably not. Oakland by four.

Atlanta (+6.5) at Seattle
Back-to-back road games are tough no matter what. Traveling to face Denver’s D one week and Seattle’s the next is just plain murder. And with the Seahawks coming off their bye, to boot. Kinda makes you wonder what the Falcons did to offend the schedule makers. Atlanta was able to overcome the first part of the challenge (thanks in part to the fact that Denver was starting a rookie QB who clearly isn’t quite NFL ready). I have a hard time believing they’ll be able to repeat that performance. But neither am I inclined to think Atlanta gets routed. Seahawks by three.

Dallas (+4) at Green Bay
If you look just at the aggregate stats, it appears Dallas is playing better football than Green Bay right now. If you look at the level of competition each team has faced, I’m not sure that conclusion holds up. Packers by a field goal.

Indianapolis (+3) at Houston
I don’t know how to pick this game, because I’m just not sure which of these teams has a greater propensity for finding ways to lose. So I’ll take the home team. By a point.

NY Jets (+8) at Arizona
The Jets season officially comes to a very early end. Cardinals by 10.

I had a bad feeling about week four. But I ignored it, because I pretty much always have a bad feeling about every week. And, really, what’s at risk?

The answer, I suppose, is my pride. As if I had any left. (Or maybe I never had any to begin with.) And, you know, maybe my ability to sell myself on the lie that I actually have any idea what I’m doing.

That’s all gone. At least for the nonce. I went 8-7 straight up in week four, which seems really bad until you look at my 5-10 finish against the spread. Now, that’s what you call awful. For the season, I’m now 38-25 (.603) straight up, 29-34 (.460) against the spread. Let’s see if I can’t make things even worse with this week’s picks, shall we?

Here’s what not to expect.

Arizona (-3.5) at San Francisco
One of these teams runs out of chances with a loss in this game. You’ve got to figure it won’t be the one that was expected to make a Super Bowl run at the start of the season. As long as Drew Stanton can avoid throwing a bunch of picks, I expect to see the Cardinals come away with a narrow victory. Arizona by a point.

Houston (+6.5) at Minnesota
The good news for the Texans is that even after they lose this game, they’ll still be in first place in the insanely weak AFC South. Vikings by nine.

Tennessee (+3.5) at Miami
Neither of these teams can hold on to the damned football. Then again, neither of them has demonstrated any ability to take the ball away from opponents either. One imagines something has to give here. But maybe not. Maybe it just comes down to Miami’s inability to stop Tennessee’s run game. Titans by a field goal.

New England (-10.5) at Cleveland
The fan narrative in New England has it that Tom Brady commences his “revenge tour” this weekend. And that may well happen. Brady surely is champing at the bit for the opportunity to take his Deflategate frustrations out on Patriots opponents. So things are likely to get ugly sooner than later. I’m not sure the revenge tour gets off to a smooth start, though. I expect Brady’s going to have some rust to shake off before he gets into a real groove. That may come in the second half here or it may take a game or two. (Or maybe I’m wrong and he gets going with the first offensive play in this game. If anyone can go from zero to 120 that quickly, it’s the Greatest Of All Time.) Here’s the thing, though. In terms of assessing this game, I’m not sure it matters all that much when the revenge tour officially commences. Because I don’t think this would have been much of a game with Jimmy Garoppolo or Jacoby Brissett starting behind center for New England. We’re a quarter of the way through the season, which is about the time you’ve got a significant enough sample for the predictive stats to start paining a picture. And here are the big three (all of them based on results the Patriots achieved with Garoppolo and then an injured Brissett at QB): Scoring differential, Patriots +7.7; passer rating differential, Patriots +15.1; takeaway/giveaway differential, Patriots +4. That’s not a formula for a Cleveland win. And, you know, I may be stupid, but I kind of like the Pats’ chances with a rusty Brady better than their chances with a wounded Garoppolo or Brissett. The Patriots start slow, worrying the crap out of their fans, but ultimately come out on top by 13.

NY Jets (+7) at Pittsburgh
Ryan Fitzpatrick‘s interception percentage, 6.5, is the highest in the NFL by a full two points. (Fitz also leads the league in total interceptions. He’s thrown 10.) Ben Roethlisberger‘s touchdown percentage, 7.6, is second highest in the NFL. (Roethlisberger also is tied with Matt Ryan for most total TD passes, with 11.) In a quarterback-driven league, that’s about all I need to know. Steelers by 10.

Washington (+4) at Baltimore
I have a hunch the Racists’ lack of a defense may hurt them in this game. But, you know, it’s just a hunch. Ravens by six.

Philadelphia (-3) at Detroit
As far as I can tell, there isn’t a single area of the game in which the Eagles don’t have the edge here. Philadelphia by … I don’t know, a lot. Let’s say 20 just because it’s a nice round number (except for the pointy part).

Chicago (+4.5) at Indianapolis
It’s hard to pick a team that’s as bad as the Colts and attempting to play through jet lag. But, well, they’re hosting the Bears. Indy by two.

Atlanta (+5.5) at Denver
The Falcons have done well for a team with no defense. Here’s what happens, though, when a team like that runs up against an opponent with an outstanding D. Broncos by at least a touchdown.

Buffalo (+2.5) at Los Angeles
Fresh off their Super Bowl championship big win over a team starting a rookie third string quarterback with an injured throwing hand, the Bills seem to be feeling pretty good about themselves. They should enjoy it while they can. Los Angeles by three.

San Diego (+3.5) at Oakland
The Raiders lack of a defense is going to present a problem in this game. But it won’t be quite enough to cost the home team a win. In a very high scoring game, Oakland comes out on top by a point, maybe two.

Cincinnati (-1) at Dallas
Thus far this season, the Bengals have looked like one of those teams that beats bad teams and loses to good ones. So what happens when they go up against an opponent that’s probably a bit better than average? I think it depends on where the game is played. And since this one’s being played on the slightly better than average team’s home field, I’m going with them. Dallas by four.

NY Giants (+7.5) at Green Bay
I don’t know what Giants fans are saying about it, but I can tell you this: If the Patriots had been scheduled to play road games in Minnesota and Green Bay over the course of six days (with the Packers coming off a bye, no less), fans in New England would be certain the NFL had conspired against the team. Doesn’t seem exactly fair to New Jersey, either, if you ask me. But you play the schedule they give you, I guess. Packers by 10.

Tampa Bay (+7) at Carolina
Man, is the NFC South not a good division. Panthers by four.

I’m feeling OK with my 8-8 finish straight up in week three. And OK-ish about my 7-9 finish against the spread, too. Does either result actually point to an OK week? Not even close. But here’s the context: The favorites went 7-9 last week straight up. (Favorites were 4-11 against the spread. Just 15 games there because Baltimore-Jacksonville went off even.) And six of the favored teams that ended up losing outright were at home.

I’m not sure that counts as getting upset week out of the way. This early in the season, it’s more likely that many of us — fans, experts and oddsmakers alike — had overestimated a bunch of teams and underestimated a bunch more. So I’m still expecting a real upside-down week to hit somewhere around the middle of the season.

Just the same, I’m inclined to look at 8-8/7-9 in week three and figure things could have turned out a whole lot worse.

With that finish, I head into week four with my picks record for the season at 30-18 (.625) straight up, 24-24 (.500) against the spread. And that, of course, means it’s a fairly safe bet that I’m headed for disaster in week four. Fortunately for me byes start this week, which leaves me only 15 games to figure wrong.

Here’s what not to expect.

Miami (+7) at Cincinnati
Each of these teams is a win north of 0-3 by the narrowest margin imaginable. The Bengals got their sole victory back in week one when they managed to edge the Jets, another team with a talent for self-destruction. Then, last week, the Dolphins needed nearly half of an overtime period and an absolutely horrific day from Browns kicker Cody Parkey to stumble into their first win. That was in Miami. Against Cleveland, a team that had been outscored 54-30 in its first two games (both losses) and that was starting a rookie third-string quarterback. I expect each of these teams to do its damnedest to lose this game. But on a short week, I have to believe the visitors have the best chance of finding the losing formula. Cincinnati by a field goal.

Indianapolis (-2.5) vs. Jacksonville at Wembley Stadium, London
Sorry, England. Colts by four.

Cleveland (+8.5) at Washington
Sorry, America. Washington by a point.

Buffalo (+5.5) at New England
Sorry, Buffalo. Maybe your next coach and quarterback will be up to their respective jobs. (Though you may feel like you’ve heard that before.) Patriots by 14.

Seattle (-1) at NY Jets
The Seahawks ought to be able to win this game, regardless of the condition of Russell Wilson’s knee. Seattle’s defense has been plenty stout through the team’s first three games (though it seems worth noting that the Seahawks haven’t exactly faced the league’s stiffest competition — and that their only other road game ended in an embarrassing loss). And it’s not like the Jets bring a powerful offense to the field. Hell, the Jets may not even bring a functional offense to the field. Seems like Seattle’s D ought to be able to keep New Jersey off the board and clear a path to victory in a low-scoring game. But I’m not so sure. The Jets D did a pretty good job of getting to the quarterback in the team’s only other home game so far this young season. If they can do that again, they’ll give their offense extra chances to wear down the Hawks. And traveling from west coast to east coast to play a one o’clock game is never easy (just ask the Cardinals). The Jets also have to feel like they’ve got their backs against the wall following last weekend’s fiasco in Kansas City. I’ve got a feeling New Jersey finds a way to win this one. Probably with a final score that looks something like 13-12.

Carolina (-3) at Atlanta
I have no idea what to make of the NFC South right now. What I do know is that the Panthers should be a better team than the Falcons. And, although the teams’ records don’t reflect it, I feel pretty confident that the Panthers actually are a better team than the Falcons. If the team is going to succeed over the long term, Carolina’s going to need to do a much better job of protecting Cam Newton than they did last weekend. But against a defense like Atlanta’s, which has shown no ability to get to the quarterback thus far this season, that shouldn’t be a huge challenge. I like the Panthers to come out on top by a touchdown.

Detroit (-3) at Chicago
Say what you want about Brian Hoyer‘s performance Sunday night in Dallas. But I’ll tell you this much: In his seven quarters of service this season, Jay Cutler dropped back to pass 54 times and took eight sacks for a league-worst sack percentage of 14.8; Hoyer, over five quarters, has dropped back 61 times, many of them against defenses protecting three-score leads, and has taken zero sacks (for a league best sack percentage of 0.0). I’m not saying that makes Hoyer a better quarterback than Cutler, but it certainly suggest to me that Hoyer is a smarter quarterback than Cutler. And that, I think, makes Hoyer ther better choice for the Bears at the moment. It’s uncertain who’ll start behind center for Chicago this week, but even assuming it’s Hoyer, I don’t expect him to lead the Bears to a win. I do, however, think Hoyer gives Chicago a chance to keep it close. And then, you know, anything can happen, particularly in a divisional matchup. Lions by a point.

Tennessee (+5.5) at Houston
Pat Kirwan likes to talk about a long-term trend of teams that have been shut out winning big the next time they take the field. There’s a competing trend at play here, too, though. It’s the one where overrated teams tend to struggle for a game or two after being exposed by the Patriots. I suspect the Texans will find a middle ground. The Titans will move the ball effectively on the ground and give the home team a good scare, but the Texans will find a way to come out just ahead. Houston by a field goal.

Oakland (+3.5) at Baltimore
It’s tempting to say that this game comes down to whether the unbalanced Raiders find a defense or the unbalanced Ravens find an offense. But I don’t think that’s where this one turns. In this battle between teams that have looked slightly better than average thus far this season, I favor the one that’s shown an ability to hold onto the ball. That’s the Raiders. Oakland by two.

Denver (-3) at Tampa Bay
Three? Three? Are you kidding? I don’t care where they’re playing, Denver wins this one by something closer to 23.

Dallas (-3) at San Francisco
Neither am I sure that three points is anywhere close to adequate in this game, though the difference might not be quite as pronounced as in Broncos-Bucs. Let’s say Dallas by 10.

New Orleans (+3.5) at San Diego
If the Saints fall to 0-4, they’re sunk. I’m pretty sure they’re sunk. Chargers by four.

Los Angeles (+8) at Arizona
Once again, the Cardinals make the most of a matchup with a weak opponent to work out their frustrations from a loss to an AFC East team. Arizona by 17.

Kansas City (+5.5) at Pittsburgh
I still haven’t quite got my head around what happened to the Steelers last weekend. I can’t imagine Pittsburgh drops a second straight, particularly given that they’re home for this one. But neither do I think the Chiefs are likely to go down without a serious fight. Steelers by three.

NY Giants (+4.5) at Minnesota
Let’s set everything else aside and just look at this. Through three games (so not an ideal sample size, but not nothing), the Giants rank 30th in the league in turnover differential, -6 (one takeaway, seven giveaways); the Vikings rank first, +8 (nine takes, one give). That’s some bad news for the visitors right there. Minnesota by a touchdown.

Well, I’m consistent if nothing else. Another week, another 11-5 finish straight up. I did improve slightly against the spread in week two, but was hardly a meaningful improvement. I landed at 9-7, exactly one game better than my week one performance. So here I sit (broken hearted? maybe not so much), 22-10 (.688) straight up, 17-15 (.531) against the spread. And who knows? Maybe in a few weeks I’ll look at those results and wonder how I managed to do so well.

Here’s what not to expect in week three.

Houston (-1) at New England
The Patriots have already accomplished everything they really needed to accomplish during Tom Brady‘s suspension. Arguably more. With the greatest quarterback of all time spending the first quarter of the season in his living room, it would have been ridiculous for the team or its fans to expect anything better than a 2-2 start. With the best tight end in football sitting out with a hamstring injury, the defensive front missing key players (including the leader of the unit), and the backup quarterback leaving with an injury less than halfway through game two, even a 2-2 open should have been out of reach. But 2-2 is the worst New England can do before Brady’s return. And 3-1 seems like a solid bet. But 4-0 doesn’t, mainly because you simply can’t expect the Patriots to come up with a win this week. You just can’t. Not with rookie third string quarterback Jacoby Brissett making his first NFL start on just four days rest and preparation. Not with Gronk still uncertain to play. Not with the well balanced Houston Texans bringing what has so far been one of the best pass defenses in the league into Foxborough. There has to be a tipping point for every team — even if it’s just a temporary tipping point — and you have to believe the Patriots have hit it. That’s simply the pragmatic point of view on this game. And yet, I remain mindful of what I wrote a week ago: “There’s no value in picking against New England. No matter whom the Patriots are playing. No matter where they’re playing. No matter what the circumstances. As long as Bill Belichick is on the sideline, the Pats more often than not are going to find a way to win.” I can’t imagine what that way might be this week. But if anyone can devise a path to victory under these circumstances, it’s Belichick. So I’m closing my eyes, holding my breath, crossing everything I can comfortably cross and taking New England. I’ll be truly awestruck if the Patriots win by more than a point.

Denver (+3) at Cincinnati
I’m not sure I understand the line on this game. I mean, I know the Bengals are at home. And I know we haven’t yet seen whether Trevor Siemian can be effective in a hostile stadium. But we know the Broncos defense can perform on the road. It appears that Denver has a balanced offense. And it appears that Cincinnati does not — and that the Bengals’ inability to move the ball on the ground thus far this season poses a particular problem given that they face a defense that doesn’t let you move the ball through the air. Young Mr. Siemian may find a way to cause me to regret it, but I’m going to take my chances with the visitors here. Broncos by a touchdown.

Oakland (+1.5) at Tennessee
The Raiders can’t seem to stop opponents from scoring. Maybe it will help to face a team that stops itself. Oakland by six.

Arizona (-4) at Buffalo
I’m sure getting three extra days to prepare and a new offensive play caller will make all the difference for Buffalo in this game. I expect to see an absolute magic show as the Bills transform from a struggling 0-2 team to a hopeless 0-3 team before our very eyes. Arizona by 10.

Baltimore (even) at Jacksonville
I don’t think the first two weeks of the season have told us anything useful about either of these teams. I’m not sure this game will get the job done either. All I can say is that if I’d seen any indication whatsoever that the Ravens were capable of running the football, I’d take them to win this one. Jaguars by a field goal.

Cleveland (+9.5) at Miami
One difference (and, yes, it’s one of very, very many) between Cleveland and New England is that the Browns weren’t able to win behind either the first or second quarterback on their depth chart. It’s possible that Cody Kessler has some special mojo, but considering that Cleveland quarterbacks have been sacked once every 10 dropbacks so far this season, I’m not sure he’s going to get much chance to put it to use. Dolphins by 14.

Washington (+4.5) at NY Giants
The Racists are just not a good team. Giants by six.

Detroit (+7.5) at Green Bay
If the Packers are going to have any kind of sustained success this season, they’re going to have to do a much better job of protecting Aaron Rodgers. But that shouldn’t be much of a worry this week. Green Bay by a field goal.

Minnesota (+7) at Carolina
I know everyone thinks losing Adrian Peterson to injury is a huge deal for the Vikings. I’m not so sure I agree.

Not having any kind of a run game to begin with might be a somewhat bigger deal. But maybe that’s just me. Panthers by ten.

San Francisco (+9.5) at Seattle
You have to believe the Seahawks are going to right the ship at some point, right? Or maybe not. But you’ve still got to like them to overcome the 49ers at home. Seattle by a touchdown.

Los Angeles (+5) at Tampa Bay
I know they beat the Seahawks last week and everything, but the Rams still look like a pretty bad football team to me. Hard to see them traveling across the country and beating a solidly mediocre squad like the Buccaneers. Tampa by three.

Pittsburgh (-3.5) at Philadelphia
One of these teams is for real. The other one is the Eagles. Pittsburgh by nine.

NY Jets (+3) at Kansas City
Here’s another game featuring two teams I don’t quite know what to make of. I know the Chiefs are at home, though, so I guess I’ll take them. Kansas City by a field goal.

San Diego (+3) at Indianapolis
One gets the feeling it’s going to be a long, difficult season for the Colts. Uneven though they may be, the Chargers win this one by four.

Chicago (+7) at Dallas
There’s nothing impressive about the Cowboys. But there’s nothing that isn’t downright awful about the Bears. Dallas by 13.

Atlanta (+3) at New Orleans
There’s an outside chance someone on one of these teams will make a defensive play at some point during this game. That players’ team wins. New Orleans by a point.

Hey, so far, so not entirely terrible. Adding Thursday night’s result into the mix, I’m now at 12-5 straight up, 9-8 against the spread so far this season. As usual, one would hardly be wise to go around wagering actual money based on anything I have to say. But one would hardly be wise to gamble under any circumstances. So I’m calling the whole thing a win. Sort of. Let’s see how short-lived this relatively good feeling proves.

Here’s what not to expect in the rest of the week two games.

Tennessee (+5.5) at Detroit
This looks to me like the kind of game where the punters might end up wondering why they bothered to suit up. The Lions won one of those by four points last week. I’ll look for them to do the same here.

Kansas City (+2.5) at Houston
Whichever team figures out how to mount a ground offense comes out on top. I’m gonna guess it’s the home team. Texans by a field goal.

Miami (+6.5) at New England
I learned a valuable lesson last Sunday night. Sadly for me, it was a lesson I’d already learned years ago and simply found a way to forget. It’s this: There’s no value in picking against New England. No matter whom the Patriots are playing. No matter where they’re playing. No matter what the circumstances. As long as Bill Belichick is on the sideline, the Pats more often than not are going to find a way to win. That formula presents itself at a fairly simple level this week, with New England hosting a Miami squad that’s playing its second straight road game and coming off what has to be a demoralizing late-game collapse in Seattle. Games against division rivals have a way of being more competitive than they ought, but I think the Patriots defense (the pass rush in particular) takes control of this one and New England comes away with win by a margin of six.

Baltimore (-6.5) at Cleveland
Don’t pay attention to those who claim Cleveland’s season is already over. The Browns have to play 15 more games just like everybody else. It’s just that their next 15 games are going to much, much worse than most other teams’. Ravens by a touchdown.

Cincinnati (+3.5) at Pittsburgh
Somebody, somewhere can probably provide some great, prescient insight into how this game is going to play out. Me, I’ve got what most everybody else has. Don’t look for much in the running game. Expect a high score. And look for the home team to come out on top. Pittsburgh by three.

Dallas (+3) at Washington
Neither of these teams got this season off to an impressive start. But the Cowboys at least hung tight against a Giants squad that I believe is better than most observers realize. I’ll take Dallas to win this one straight up. Let’s say it’s by a point.

New Orleans (+5) at NY Giants
I don’t anticipate quite the shootout I’ve seen and heard predicted elsewhere. But I do expect both teams to get into the high twenties. Giants by a field goal.

San Francisco (+13.5) at Carolina
The Panthers, who come into this game on 10 days rest, are not the Rams. I’m not sure there’s a whole lot more to say. Carolina by 17.

Tampa Bay (+6.5) at Arizona
One could make an argument that no team should be taken by surprise by the Patriots at this point in NFL history. But it happens just the same. Taken by surprise by the Buccaneers? Not so much. The Bucs appear to have a pretty good team. We’ll get an idea of just how good by whether — and perhaps for how long — they’re able to stay competitive against a very good Cardinals teams that needs a win to right the ship. It may be close right down to the final minutes, but in the end, even if it’s by way of a late touchdown that extends the margin, I think Arizona comes out on top by about nine.

Seattle (-6.5) at Los Angeles
I’ll admit I went to be fairly early Monday night, but I was still up later than the Rams. One suspects this first season back in L.A. is going to be longer than anyone realized. Seahawks by 10.

Indianapolis (+6) at Denver
The Broncos appear to be a balanced team. The Colts are not. Denver by a touchdown.

Atlanta (+4.5) at Oakland
I don’t think there’s anything the Falcons can do to slow down the Raiders offense. Oakland by 14.

Jacksonville (+3) at San Diego
One of these teams has to win. Let’s go with the hosts. Chargers win it straight up. It’s a push with the points.

Green Bay (-2) at Minnesota
Both of these teams will be facing much stiffer opposition than they faced in week one. But I suspect the Vikings are facing a slightly tougher bump. Packers by a point.

Philadelphia (+3) at Chicago
Another gem of a Monday night matchup. Ugh. Bears by six.

I’m not going to get to all of this week’s games before the big AFC East showdown on Thursday night. So let’s start with that one and I’ll get to the rest later.

I got off to about as good a start as I could have hoped for with my week one picks. Finished 11-5 straight up, 8-8 against the spread. I’ll take it. And let’s see how much worse I do once I start thinking I know something.

NY Jets (-1) at Buffalo
You wouldn’t think the Bills could fare any worse against the Jets than they did against the Ravens. But I’m not sure. I certainly don’t expect Buffalo to have much more success running the ball this week than they did last. And that leaves Tyrod Taylor, who was sacked once for every 11 times he dropped back last week, to try to overcome a pass rush that put Andy Dalton on his back seven times on 37 drop-backs (18.9 percent) last week. None of that figures to help the Bills. I suspect the advantage of hosting a division rival on a short week is the only thing that keeps Buffalo in this game. In a low-scoring game, New Jersey comes out on top by a field goal.

Hey, look at that, I’m off to a split start: 0-1 straight up, 1-0 against the spread. So far this randomly guessing approach is producing results that are similar to the pretending I know and them randomly guessing approach. What a revelation.

Here’s what not to expect over the rest of week one.

Tampa Bay (+2.5) at Atlanta
Common sense tells me to take the home team in this matchup. My belief that that Buccaneers are rising and the Falcons falling tells me the opposite. And since I have nothing on the line but pride — and since I have no pride left to lose — Tampa Bay by three.

Minnesota (-2.5) at Tennessee
The Vikings defense needs to play up to the level of its reputation at least long enough for the Minnesota offense to get its legs under it. This seems like a good place to start. In a low-scoring game, Minnesota comes out ahead by a point.

Cleveland (+3.5) at Philadelphia
Neither of these teams is very good. And both may already have given up on the season. But at least one of them has a quarterback who has both something to prove and decent chance to start proving it. Cleveland by a field goal.

Cincinnati (-2.5) at NY Jets
The consensus seems to be that the Bengals are a considerably better football team than the Jets, and that only home field is keeping New Jersey in this one. I’m not sure that’s true. I’ll take the favorites, I suppose, but I think it comes down to the final seconds. Cincinnati by four.

Oakland (+1.5) at New Orleans
The Raiders are the more complete team in this match. I think they outlast the Saints in a high-scoring game. Oakland by six.

San Diego (+6.5) at Kansas City
Kansas City’s a tough place to start a season for Philip Rivers and the Chargers. Chiefs by 10.

Buffalo (+3) at Baltimore
I don’t think either of these teams is going much of anywhere this season. But the Ravens should at least be good enough to handle a middling visitor like the Bills fairly handily. Baltimore by a touchdown.

Chicago (+6) at Houston
The Bears have a long way to go before they’ll be competitive in road games against good opponents. Houston by nine.

Green Bay (-5.5) at Jacksonville
Even those who have bought into the hype about the Jaguars rebound don’t think Jacksonville has the juice to compete with Green Bay. Packers by 14.

Miami (+10.5) at Seattle
I’m not sure there’s a whole lot that needs to be said about this matchup. Seahawks by 21.

NY Giants (even) at Dallas
In which the Giants begin the work of dominating a weak division. Eli Manning has a big day and New Jersey opens with an eight-point win.

Detroit (+3) at Indianapolis
Shrug. Home team by six.

New England (+7) at Arizona
If the Patriots ever had a real chance in this game, it went away on July 14. And if they had an outside chance, it probably disappeared when the team traveled to Arizona without Rob Gronkowski. But in reality, this game was likely going to end in a Cardinals victory no matter who New England put on the field. At full strength, these are two of the best teams in the league. And, sure, there’s still some possibility that what appears to be a very impressive Patriots defense finds a way to take advantage of Carson Palmer and carry New England to a victory. (If that happens, by the way, Patriots fans should go ahead and book their hotel rooms in Houston for the first weekend in February.) But when two good teams meet in week one, you take the home team unless there’s a very good reason not to. Cardinals by four.

Pittsburgh (-3) at Washington
The Steelers put on a show in prime time, announcing that they’re back. The Racists … well, in a way, I guess they’re back, too. Pittsburgh by 17.

Los Angeles (-2.5) at San Francisco
In a nationally televised game that will be watched by no one outside of California, the middle-of-the-road team overcomes the bad team. What an exciting way to wrap up week one. Rams by four.

I’m just going with this one for the nonce. Maybe I’ll get the rest up before kickoff tonight. Probably not.

Carolina (-3) at Denver
If your defense is good enough to carry you to victory over a good team at a neutral site in spite of horrific quarterback play to end one season, it ought to be good enough to carry you to a victory over that same team on your own field in spite of an inexperienced quarterback to begin the next. I mean, that’s sound reasoning, isn’t it? Carolina by a point.

I shouldn’t be doing this. It’s late (the Wednesday evening before the start of the season as I write). My anger with the NFL over its treatment of Tom Brady has (once again) eroded my ability (and willingness) to pay as much attention as I had until the 2015 off-season to goings-on around the league. And even setting that aside, making predictions in September about what will happen in football games to be played in December, January and February is always the very definition of pointlessness.

But here I go again just the same. Now I’ll have something to go to in five months when I’m looking for evidence of my own utter idiocy.

As in prior years, I’m not going to try to predict final win-loss records. Instead, I’ll offer range of how many games I think each team is likely to win. And then it’s on to predicting postseason seedings and outcomes. Because that’s always a good idea.

Less text than usual this time. Because it’s all bullshit anyhow.

AFC East

New England Patriots, 11-14
Patriots fans are convinced that the team is going to run the table once Tom Brady returns from his unjust, unwarranted suspension in week five. It’s a nice enough thought. But I’m inclined to think they drop one somewhere along the way. And if they don’t, they may well end up in position to take week 17 off. The Pats appear to have assembled a bruising defense. And their O, which should sing once Brady’s back on the field, ought to be able to operate well enough with Jimmy Garoppolo behind center. The opener at Arizona looks like a loss to me. Beyond that, I think it’s just a matter of how many of the next three games New England can win. I expect them to take at least two. But even if they drop all four, I think the team will be OK. (The fans, not so much. And don’t even get me started on the Boston sports media.)

New York Jets, 9-11
The Jets are a well coached team with a lot of the right pieces. As long as they can keep Ryan Fitzpatrick upright, I expect the Jets to pose a threat to the Patriots throughout much of the season, only to fall away in December. And even then, they may well catch a wild card berth.

Miami Dolphins, 5-8
Once again, it’s all about Ryan Tannehill in Miami. And once again, we see that a quarterback can only take a team so far.

Buffalo Bills, 5-7
I don’t see that the Bills used the offseason to solve the problems that dogged them in 2015. And in the NFL, if you’re not getting better, you’re getting worse.

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers, 10-13
Conventional wisdom says that the Steelers success this season will depend on he maturation of their defense. I kind of think that’s about fans expecting Pittsburgh to be Pittsburgh, and I’m not so sure it holds up. I think we might see a team that’s carried by a high-scoring offense through most or all of the season. If the D comes together — especially if they do it down the stretch — all the better.

Cincinnati Bengals, 9-11
Will this be the year the Bengals finally win a game in the postseason? Probably not. But they may well get to lose another one.

Baltimore Ravens, 6-10
We should be in the up part of the up-down cycle for the Ravens (and their quarterback) this year. And maybe there’s something to that. But facing a tough schedule and playing in a tough division with a geriatric roster isn’t usually a very good formula for up. We’ll see.

Cleveland Browns, 3-5
It’s possible (because anything’s possible) that this latest rebuilding project is the one that will finally pay off for the Browns. But not this year.

AFC South

Houston Texans, 8-11
I’m not one of those folks who expect the Texans to be a great football team this season. (Which is your surest sign that they will be.) I’m not even confident that they’ll be much better than good. But that might still win them a second straight AFC South title. Or not.

Indianapolis Colts, 7-11
I think it’s the same, simple formula for the Colts: Keep Andrew Luck on his feet and you win the division. Expose him to constant punishment via shoddy O line play and you start your offseason January 2.

Tennessee Titans, 6-10
I think the Titans could be a much better team than anyone expects. I like their quarterback. I think their plan to emphasize the run will allow Mariota to continue to grow into the role. And I suspect their D may be better than advertised, especially if a ball-control offense allows them to play rested and defend leads. Of course, I’m usually wrong about these things.

Jacksonville Jaguars, 4-8
It’s easy and popular to blame the problems the Jaguars have faced in recent seasons on the defense. And if it’s also accurate, this team should be poised to make a huge leap this season. But I’ve got this weird notion that the Jags’ failure to protect Blake Bortles has been significant factor. And I don’t see where they’ve fixed that.

AFC West

Oakland Raiders, 9-12
That’s right. I’m looking for the Raiders not only to be relevant for the first time in 14 years, but to actually win a division title. Why? Maybe because they’ve built a talented team. And, you know, maybe because I’m a dolt.

Kansas City Chiefs, 9-12
Or maybe it’ll be the Chiefs’ year. They looked pretty OK at the end of last season, right? And they appear to have got a bit better in the offseason. Or they have on offense, anyhow.

Denver Broncos, 7-9
The Broncos’ defense was good enough to win them a Super Bowl last year in spite of shoddy quarterback play. And they kept enough of that unit around that they should be able to carry Trevor Siemian and the offense. Right?  I’ll believe it when I see it.

San Diego Chargers, 5-8
The biggest thing the Chargers needed to do in the offseason was figure out how to keep Philip Rivers on his feet. They didn’t.

NFC East

New York Giants, 9-11
The Giants probably won’t be a truly great football team this season. But I suspect they’ll be a very good football team. And that’s all it should take in the NFC East.

Washington Racists, 6-9
The defending division champs got away with being the best team in a bad division a year ago. That kind of luck almost never repeats itself.

Philadelphia Eagles, 5-8
Say what you want. This is a rebuilding year.

Dallas Cowboys, 4-6
We’ve all seen this movie before. We know how it ends. Tony Romo‘s career is effectively over. And the Cowboys aren’t built to win without him.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers, 11-14
It’s all about Aaron Rodgers. It always is for Green Bay. And that’s not a bad thing.

Minnesota Vikings, 8-10
Ask yourself how quickly you think the Vikings can get Sam Bradford up to speed. Answer that and you’ll know how far the team can go.

Chicago Bears, 5-7
It’s just hard to believe the Bears can get much done given how little they have to work with.

Detroit Lions, 4-6
The Lions are just plain old headed in the wrong direction.

NFC South

Carolina Panthers, 13-14
Barring a Super Bowl hangover of epic proportions, it’s hard to imagine the Panthers falling far below their level of regular season success of a year ago.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 7-9
The Buccaneers are on the ascent. The question isn’t whether they’ll be better than they were last year. It’s by how much?

New Orleans Saints, 6-9
The Saints don’t have enough offense to overcome their shortcomings on D.

Atlanta Falcons, 5-8
Neither do the Falcons.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals, 12-15
It’s the Cardinals and the Seahawks this year — not just in the NFC West, but in the conference as a whole (arguably in the NFL, though don’t look for me to make that argument) — and everyone knows it. Barring a disastrous injury for one team, one is going to take the one seed and the other is going to settle in as an insanely dangerous five (cue the calls for reseeding in the playoffs). Which will be which? I don’t know. I’m defaulting to last year’s division winner mostly because I know everyone else is doing the opposite.

Seattle Seahawks, 12-15
See above. (But keep an eye on the Seattle O line and their ability to keep Russell Wilson healthy.)

Los Angeles Rams, 5-8
The Rams have the misfortune of trying to find their way in a division dominated by two of the best teams in football.

San Francisco 49ers, 3-5
The 49ers have the misfortune of trying to rebuild in that same division.

Playoffs

OK, now it’s time to get truly stupid.

AFC
1. New England
2. Pittsburgh
3. Oakland
4. Houston
5. Kansas City
6. Cincinnati

NFC
1. Arizona
2. Carolina
3. Green Bay
4. NY Giants
5. Seattle
6. Minnesota

Wild Card Playoffs

AFC
Oakland defeats Cincinnati
Kansas City defeats Houston

NFC
Green Bay defeats Minnesota
Seattle defeats NY Giants

Divisional Playoffs

AFC
Pittsburgh defeats Oakland
New England defeats Kansas City

NFC
Seattle defeats Arizona
Green Bay defeats Carolina

Conference Championships

AFC
New England defeats Pittsburgh

NFC
Seattle defeats Green Bay

Super Bowl LI
New England defeats Seattle

There you go. Wrong from top to bottom, no doubt.

Here’s the most important thing I’m going to tell you: Don’t listen to anything I have to say.

Or at the very least, don’t risk actual money based on my predictions. Because if there’s one thing I’ve been good at all season long, and now through the playoffs, it’s making terrible picks against the spread.

I went 0-2 against the spread in the Conference Championship round, which makes me 2-7-1 picking against the spread this postseason. That’s pretty damned awful.

Straight up? Better. I went 1-1 in the last round, which puts me at 8-2 overall in the playoffs.

So, you know, maybe that means I’ve got an 80 percent chance of getting this last pick right. Or maybe it means I’ve got a 100 percent chance of experiencing the last bit of a stats correction that’s still possible at this point.

That’s picking straight up, of course. Against the spread it’s a guaranteed disaster. So if you’re going to bet (you shouldn’t bet; it’s a stupid way to throw your money away), bet the other way. Seriously.

Here, for the last time until September, is what not to expect.

Carolina (-5.5) vs. Denver
I’ll start out by stating again something I’ve expressed here and elsewhere a trillion times before: The bit of conventional wisdom about defense winning championships is wrong. Defense doesn’t win championships. Balance wins championships. We think defense wins championships mainly because throughout the regular season the focus of both fans and the media tends to be on the teams with flashy offenses. Those teams are fun. And they win a lot in regular season play, because they mostly come up against teams with bad, middling or pretty good Ds. The teams with the big, bruising Ds meanwhile, win consistently but unspectacularly. Or they do as long as they also have offenses that are at least pretty good. Because a strong D asked to carry a bad O eventually wears down. Then you get into the postseason, and the teams with great Ds and pretty good offenses start eliminating the teams with great offenses and OK-ish Ds and it looks for all the world like defense is carrying the day. Until you get to the end. Usually. And then what happens is that the team best suited to play well on both sides of the ball comes out on top. And when you have a team that extends offensive/defensive balance to run/pass balance on both sides of the ball, that squad is even better positioned to win, often to win decisively. (But there again, because that team plays well on D, which we’re not used to talking about, we end up hearing about how defense wins championships. It’s an inescapable cycle.)

The Carolina Panthers are an incredibly well balanced football team. It’s why they come into this game 17-1. The Panthers had the NFL’s most productive offense during the regular season, scoring 31.3 points per game. In the postseason, although Carolina squared off against the league’s stingiest defense (Seattle, 17.3 points per game) and seventh stingiest defense (Arizona, 19.6 points per game), the Panthers were able to put up 31 and 49 points, stretching their overall scoring average to 32.2 points per game. And, yeah, they did that playing at home, but the Panthers put up big points in road games all season long. There’s nothing on their schedule that suggests they may struggle to score simply because they’re playing on a neutral field. The Panthers move the ball well through the air and better on the ground. They come into this game with an overall offensive passer rating of 100.4. And their run game produced 142.6 yards per game (4.3 yards per carry) and 19 touchdowns during the regular season, which they stretched to 143.2 (still 4.3) and 24 in the playoffs. The Panthers also protect the ball incredibly well. Meanwhile on D, although the Broncos have got most of the attention these past two weeks, the Panthers may actually be the better unit. Carolina gave up just 19.3 points per game during the season, sixth fewest in the NFL. They’ve maintained that average through the postseason. Across all 18 games, they’ve compiled a defensive passer rating of just 72.8, and have allowed just 86.2 yards per game (4.0 yards per carry) on the ground. The Panthers led the league in takeaways during the season with 39, which also gave them a league best takeaway-giveaway differential of +20, which they have extended to +28 in the playoffs.

The Denver Broncos, on the other hand, are not a well balanced team. Denver unquestionably has a powerhouse D, and it’s that unit that carried the Broncos through the regular season and the playoffs alike. The Broncos allowed just 18.5 points per game during the regular season, an average they were able to reduce slightly, to 18.3, in the postseason despite facing two of the NFL’s most productive regular season offenses in Pittsburgh (26.4) and New England (29.1). And, yes, we all know that the Steelers were up against some pretty serious injury issues by the time they got to Denver, but that doesn’t change the fact that the impressive Broncos D has not let up in the postseason. And the Broncos have been better than the Panthers against the run. They allowed just 83.6 yards per game (3.3 yards per carry) during the regular season, and reduced their overall average during the playoffs to 81.4 yards per game (still 3.3 per carry). The Broncos are slightly weaker than the Panthers against the pass, however, with a defensive passer rating of 77.7 through 18 games. The difference comes largely from the fact that the Broncos pick off the ball with much less frequency than the Panthers. But on offense, the emotional perspective of fans and professional observers who want to believe that Peyton Manning has one last big game in him notwithstanding, the Broncos are completely outclassed in this game. They’ve put up just 22.1 points per game through all 18. They bring in a passer rating of 76.9, a number that makes it astonishing to think that they’ve come this far. And while they run the ball better than they throw it, at 107.0 yards per game and 4.1 per carry, no one’s accusing the Broncos of tearing up the turf. Most problematic for the Broncos is their tendency to give the ball away. Denver finished the regular season with the third most giveaways in the league, 31. The Broncos were the only team to qualify for postseason play with a negative giveaway-takeaway differential, -4. They’ve improved to -2 overall during the playoffs, but two decent games doesn’t constitute a turnaround.

Before we get to a pick, let’s take a moment to look at the holy trinity of predictive stats, shall we? Scoring differential, Panthers +4.6 (not huge). Passer rating differential, Panthers +14.2 (pretty huge). Turnover differential, Panthers +30 (ginormous).

So here’s the deal. Denver’s defense is probably good enough to make a few things happen, maybe even good enough to win the game if the offense doesn’t completely fall apart. But to get to a Denver win, everything needs to go the Broncos’ way. Everything. You can’t count on that. Ever. You certainly can’t count on it when you’re lined up against a team that was probably the best in football from September through January. I just can’t envision the Denver D being able to clamp down on Cam Newton and the Panthers offense for an entire game. Can’t. But I can see the Carolina D positioning itself to victimize the one-dimensional Denver offense. So I’m going with Carolina. And while I won’t be surprised if it’s still a game at halftime, and maybe even at the end of the third quarter, I will be surprised if the Panthers don’t come out ahead by at least a touchdown, and possibly a good bit more.