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Week Sixteen Picks

December 22nd, 2016 Comments off

And the beat goes on. In week fifteed, once again, I came out OK picking straight up, considerably less than OK against the spread.

My 12-4 week straight up gets me to 142-80-2 (.638) for the season. My 7-9 finish against the spread brings my increasingly impressive record for the season to 100-121-3 (.440).

Let’s see how much worse things can get. Here’s what not to expect in the week ahead.

NY Giants (-2.5) at Philadelphia
There are a number of ways the Giants can clinch a postseason berth this weekend, but the simplest is by completing a season sweep over the Eagles. With Philly in a five-game slide and looking defeated, I’m anticipating the Giants will take the direct path to wild card weekend. And since the trip from East Rutherford to Philadelphia hardly counts as traveling, I’m thinking no one gets a real advantage from the short week. Accordingly, I’m looking for New Jersey to come out on top by at least a field goal.

Washington (-3) at Chicago
The Racists are fading a bit faster than I had anticipated. But almost no one loses to the Bears. Washington by two.

Miami (+3.5) at Buffalo
I wonder if either team will bother to throw the ball in this game. Bills by three.

Atlanta (-3) at Carolina
The Falcons aren’t getting to a first-round bye. But a win at least keeps their hopes alive. More important, a win here moves Atlanta one step closer to sewing up the NFC three seed and at least one home game. Is any of that predictive of a result in this game? Not so much. For that, we’ll have to fall back on the fact that the Panthers really don’t match up against the Falcons better now than they did back in October. Atlanta by 10.

Minnesota (+6.5) at Green Bay
With a win against the Vikings at home, the Packers will position themselves to take the NFC North title in their week 17 visit to Detroit. It’s been more than two months since the Vikings last beat a good team. They’re not reversing that trend now. Packers by four.

NY Jets (+16.5) at New England
The Patriots appear to be getting better as the season goes on, and they’re driving for home field advantage through the AFC playoffs. The Jets aren’t even trying anymore. I’m not sure there’s a whole lot more that needs saying. Here are the (completely insane) big three predictive stats for this game: scoring differential, Patriots +8.9; passer rating differential, Patriots +26.1; takeaway-giveaway differential, Patriots +25. (Oh, hey, here’s something.  This game will mark a full season since New England’s last defensive touchdown — week 16 of last season against the Jets in New Jersey — three full seasons since their last pick six. Might be a good opportunity to reset the clock on both.) New England by 21.

Tennessee (-5) at Jacksonville
A Titans win ensures that we get an AFC South Championship game between Houston and Tennessee in week 17. That (and, you know, the thing with the Jaguars being in complete disarray) just about ought to do it. Titans by nine.

San Diego (-6) at Cleveland
You know what you get when you look at a team that gives up 26 points per game traveling across the country to play at 1 p.m. and still come away feeling like they should win fairly easily? A realization that, yeah, 0-16 really is going to happen in Cleveland. San Diego by a touchdown.

Indianapolis (+3.5) at Oakland
The Raiders are in a battle for the AFC West crown and in contention for the conference one seed. The Colts are sliding uncomfortably into the off season. Oh, and, uh, Indy still can’t stop the run. Raiders by six.

San Francisco (+3.5) at Los Angeles
Maybe you care, but I don’t. In a game that features three turnovers per team, the home squad comes out ahead by a point.

Tampa Bay (+3) at New Orleans
The Saints no doubt would love to erase the memory of their bad experience in Tampa two weeks ago and effectively eliminate their division rivals from playoff contention all at the same time. I think they’ll pull it off. New Orleans by four.

Arizona (+8.5) at Seattle
Although the Seahawks can clinch the NFC two seed and a first round bye with a win here and some help, the reality is that they’re actually going to have to make an effort next week at San Francisco. Because they’re getting the win, but they’re not getting the help. (I suspect they’ll survive the experience.) Seahawks by seven.

Cincinnati (+2) at Houston
The Texans are going to find a way to lose this game. And yet they’ll still have a chance to take the AFC South championship if they can pull off a win at Tennessee next weekend. Bengals by four.

Baltimore (+5) at Pittsburgh
The Steelers are a win away from being guaranteed the AFC three seed and at least one home game in the postseason. Who they’d face in the first round is very much in question. And the muddle for the six seed doesn’t really get any less muddly with a Baltimore loss here. Steelers by a field goal.

Denver (+4) at Kansas City
The Broncos aren’t officially done, but their season ended last week. Chiefs by six.

Detroit (+7) at Dallas
In which the Cowboys clinch the NFC one seed (unless the Giants hand it to them on Thursday night) and the Lions take another step toward losing the NFC North title to Green Bay. Dallas by 10.

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Week Fifteen Picks

December 15th, 2016 Comments off

And after two weeks of adequacy, I sink right back into frustration.

OK, maybe it’s not quite that bad. I went 9-7 straight up in week fourteen. I suppose it could have been worse. That puts me at 130-76-2 (.630) for the season.

Against the spread, I came in at 7-9, which gets me to 93-112-3 (.454) overall. And there’s no pretending that’s anything but bad.

Let’s see if I can’t do even worse in week fifteen. Here’s what not to expect.

Los Angeles (+16) at Seattle
Is there really anything that needs to be said about this game? OK, let’s see, team that’s 4-9 overall, 0-4 since switching to a rookie quarterback, fires its coach on Monday, then boards a plane for a Thursday night game against a division rival that features a crushing defense, and is battling for postseason seeding, looking to right the ship after a tough loss, and doubtlessly anxious to erase the memory of an embarrassing loss early in the season. It’s difficult to imagine any way that doesn’t translate to a blowout of epic proportions. Seahawks by 38.

Miami (-2.5) at NY Jets
The Dolphins offense is limping. The Jets two weeks ago looked for all the world like a team that had given up on its season. But then in the second half last week, New Jersey appeared to come back to life (though it could simply be that the 49ers needed to show that they’ve quit even harder than the Jets). All of which leaves me with no way to assess this game. I suppose I’ll take the team that can at least pretend to have something left to play for. So, yeah, Dolphins by a point.

Detroit (+4.5) at NY Giants
I could spend all kinds of time trying to break down which one of these teams needs a win here most. But I won’t. Because it doesn’t matter. Both teams are trying to play their way into the postseason. They both need to win. I see neither desire nor desperation as offering any kind of edge in this match. Here’s what I think matters. First, neither of these teams can run the ball. Second, only one of them can stop the pass. Third, the team with the pass D is playing at home. That’s the edge that matters. Giants by six.

Philadelphia (+6) at Baltimore
Despite their Monday night loss at New England, the Ravens are still very much in the postseason hunt. They may not get there, but if they miss, it will be because they can’t get by Pittsburgh a week from now, not because they stumble over a Philadelphia team that is thoroughly cooked. The Ravens take this one by 10, minimum.

Green Bay (-6) at Chicago
OK, so I was wrong last week. Clearly the Packers truly have turned things around. A win here and another next week against the Vikings, and they’ll very likely head to Detroit in week 17 with a chance to take the NFC North (which likely would come with an opportunity finally to overcome the Giants in the postseason). Even with Aaron Rodgers not fully functional, one has to imagine the Packers extend their winning streak to four games as they face a Bears squad that can’t seem to get out of its own way. Green Bay by nine.

Indianapolis (+4) at Minnesota
The Vikings don’t have their run game back quite yet. But they’re at home. So let’s figure they win this meeting of the mediocre. Minnesota by three.

Cleveland (+10) at Buffalo
I was going to write that the Bills have to be good enough to beat the Browns, but that’s not quite right. More like the Browns are almost certainly bad enough to get crushed by the Bills. That’s a fit. Buffalo by 14.

Tennessee (+5.5) at Kansas City
Considering that they’re already at a tie-breaker disadvantage with the Texans in the division and the Dolphins and Ravens in the wild card race, the Titans really can’t afford to lose this game. And that’s unfortunate for them, because they’re losing this game. Chiefs by a field goal.

Jacksonville (+6) at Houston
The Texans are going to back into an AFC South championship yet again. Sure hope the home fans enjoy watching their team lose in the wild card round. Texans by a touchdown.

Pittsburgh (-3) at Cincinnati
The Bengals are losing their final three games. Maybe they’ll keep this one relatively close, though. Pittsburgh by three.

New Orleans (+2.5) at Arizona
Who ever would have pegged this game as irrelevant? Let’s say home team by three, which saves me from actually expending any mental energy.

San Francisco (+13.5) at Atlanta
Is it realistic to call this a professional football game even though there’s only one professional football team involved? Falcons by however many points they choose to win by. Let’s assume it’ll be at least half a point more than the spread.

New England (-3) at Denver
Let’s start with the big three predictive stats this week. They don’t offer a lot of clarity, but they do set up my thinking about this game. Scoring differential, Patriots +2.4; passer rating differential, Patriots +0.5; takeaway-giveaway differential, Broncos +2. That points to a tossup no matter where the game’s being played. You can crawl around in those numbers if you want. But what I’ve found over the last couple of days is that doing that doesn’t answer a lot of questions. Do you like New England’s strong passing game to overcome Denver’s suffocating pass defense? I’m not sure I do. I mean, yeah, it could happen. But it probably won’t. Then again, neither is it reasonable to expect the Broncos’ wholly pedestrian passing attack to succeed against a Patriots pass D that’s strong and appears to be truly rounding into form. Turnovers can always be a factor. But here you have a pair of teams that typically come out on the right side of the takeaway-giveaway equation, both of them coming off atypically rough games (albeit, one in a win, the other in a loss). Can you project which team comes out on top there? I can’t. And then you get to the ground game, and here’s what you see. The Broncos are OK-ish at running the ball. If they’re able to mount a balanced offensive attack, they can probably expect to pick up some yards, though it’s tough to get into the end zone against the Patriots run defense. Denver’s run defense? Not good. The Broncos allow 127 yards per game on the ground, the fourth most in the NFL. The 4.2 yards per carry they give up ranks them higher than 13 other teams. So that’s nice, I suppose. But it also ranks them lower than 18 teams. The 12 rushing TDs they’ve allowed this season are the eleventh most in the league. Let’s call that just on the bad side of average. The Patriots’ run offense, in the meantime, has been good for 116 yards per game (seventh most in the league), four yards per carry (twenty-first), and 15 touchdowns (tied for third). Since last season, I’ve been telling anyone who would listen that I believe LeGarrette Blount is the best running back who has played for the Patriots in the Belichick-Brady era (and, yes, yes, yes, I do remember Corey Dillon). Blount doesn’t get a lot of love from New England fans or the media, but he brings a great combination of inside power and speed to the field. He leads the league with 14 TD carries, and he has a habit of turning in his best runs when his team needs them most. If I’m right about Blount, he should be able to carry the Patriots this week. If Blount’s good for 100 yards and a TD or two, I think that’s enough to get New England out of Denver with a victory. And that’s about what I’m expecting. New England by four.

Oakland (-3) at San Diego
The Chargers give the Raiders a good scare, but fold late. Oakland by two.

Tampa Bay (+7) at Dallas
If the Buccaneers can pull off an upset in Dallas, I’ll be forced to start believing in them. And, oh, boy, won’t we all enjoy watching the Cowboys fans melt down and cry out for their ex-boyfriend (now just a friend — at least for the moment) Tony Romo to come to their rescue? But I don’t see it. Not in Dallas, anyhow. Not this season. Cowboys by six.

Carolina (+6.5) at Washington
The Racists are going to end up watching the playoffs this season. But they’re not going out with a loss to the Panthers. Washington by nine.

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Week Fourteen Picks

December 8th, 2016 Comments off

Here’s something. I actually managed to finish above .500 (if only just) picking against the spread in week thirteen. That feels all right. I suppose. I mean, the way this season’s gone so far, I’ll take it.

I had an OK week picking straight up, too. Came in at 11-4 there, which brings me to 121-69-2 (.635) for the season. And with my 8-7 finish against the spread, I’m now 86-103-3 (.456) overall.

Of course, one kind of good week probably means I’m due for an offsetting pretty bad week. Let’s plunge in. Here’s what not to expect in week fourteen.

Oakland (+3) at Kansas City
The Raiders might be the better team here. Or they might not be. And either way, it might not matter. Oakland looks (slightly) better on paper. And Kansas City continues to look to me like a team waiting for an opportunity to collapse. But it would be foolish to ignore the fact that the Chiefs thumped the Raiders in Oakland back in week six. Thumped as in took a lead in the second quarter and never relinquished it. Thumped as in shut out the home team in the second half. Thumped as in won by more than two scores. You take that and add in the difficulty of traveling on a short week and a forecast that calls for brutal cold at kickoff, and I think you get to a Chiefs sweep of the season series. I don’t foresee another thumping, though. Kansas City by a point.

Denver (+1) at Tennessee
I know the Broncos of 2016 aren’t the Broncos of 2015. But they still have to be good enough to take a critical game against the Titans, don’t they? I mean, don’t they? Maybe they don’t. But I’m still saying Denver by a field goal.

San Diego (+1.5) at Carolina
Neither of these teams is going anywhere. But I suspect the Chargers are prepared to fight their way through the last quarter of the season even if the effort only gets them to a .500 record and the middle of the draft order. And the Panthers on Sunday night looked to me like a team ready to move on to the offseason. (Not because they got beat by the Seahawks, mind you. That can happen to any team. It just didn’t look to me like the Panthers were full participants in that game.) San Diego by four.

Houston (+6) at Indianapolis
The Texans have lost three in a row, mostly to good teams. The Colts have won one in a row, beating a mostly bad team. Indy’s probably still the better pick at home, but I’m not giving six. Colts by half the spread.

Cincinnati (-5.5) at Cleveland
Robert Griffin III is ready to play again. So that’s a rare bit of good news for the Browns, I suppose. I hear the over/under on how long the Browns will be able to keep him (relatively) healthy and on the field halftime. I’m tempted to bet the under. Bengals by a touchdown.

Pittsburgh (-1.5) at Buffalo
The Bills’ strong run game should be enough to propel them to a close win at home. Should be. But won’t. Steelers by two.

Arizona (+1) at Miami
It’s tempting to think the Dolphins were somehow exposed in last weekend’s blowout loss at Baltimore. But I’m not sure that’s the case. I think the Dolphins are who we thought they were; a team that beats fair to bad opponents and loses to good ones. The Cardinals fall into the fair category (I think). In Miami, that should translate to a Dolphins win. I suspect the difference will be more than a field goal but less than a touchdown. For fun, let’s put it at five.

Chicago (+8) at Detroit
You can’t really hope to sneak up on a team you beat just two months earlier, which is to say the Bears don’t have any realistic path to victory here. Lions by nine.

Minnesota (-3.5) at Jacksonville
The Vikings may be fading, but they’re still close to the top of the leader board in takeaways, with 22, which is tied for fourth most in the league. The Jaguars don’t have anywhere to fade to. And they’re tied for most giveaways in the league, 25. Minnesota by three turnovers and 14 points.

Washington (-1) at Philadelphia
The Racists are the better team. But not by enough to win in Philly. Eagles by a field goal.

NY Jets (+2.5) at San Francisco
The Jets have given up on this season. I think we can all agree on that. I mean, right? 49ers by a point.

New Orleans (+2.5) at Tampa Bay
The first of two meetings between these teams over the course of three weeks goes to the home team. Buccaneers by six.

Seattle (-3) at Green Bay
I don’t think the Packers have really turned anything around over the past couple of weeks. I think we’ll see the evidence of that in this game. Seahawks by four.

Atlanta (-6) at Los Angeles
Well, I’m not picking the Rams, I can tell you that. Falcons by 13.

Dallas (-3) at NY Giants
The Giants can’t lose this game and win the NFC East. But the Giants aren’t winning and NFC East anyhow. And they can lose those game and still land in the postseason as the NFC five or six seed. Which, I guess, will be a nice thing for Giants fans to keep in mind as the game clock ticks down to zero. Cowboys by a touchdown.

Baltimore (+7) at New England
Seven seems like a lot, doesn’t it? It certainly does to me. Here, let’s look at the big three predictive stats. Scoring differential, Patriots +2.7. That’s not much. Passer rating differential, Patriots. +11.7. That fairly meaningful. Takeaway-giveaway differential, dead even at +5 per team. What’s interesting to me about that last thing is that the team’s have taken significantly different paths to get there. The Patriots have 13 takeaways (seven interceptions, six fumble recoveries), against just eight giveaways (one pick, seven fumbles). The Ravens have logged 22 takeaways (14 INTs, eight fumble recoveries) and committed 17 giveaways (11 picks, six fumbles). One kind of gets the feeling that the outcome of this game may come down to which team’s turnover game prevails. That should bode well for the team that protects the ball better, especially with that team playing at home. But I’ll offer this qualifying thought: It may not favor a team that has Fumblina Wilkinson returning kicks. We’ll see how that plays out. In the meantime, Patriots by three.

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Week Thirteen Picks

December 1st, 2016 Comments off

You might think it would be easy to make your peace with being awful picking against the spread if you were someone who never actually wagered any money on football. Seriously, why should I care? Point spreads are for gamblers. Gambling is for fools. And while I’m certainly a fool, I’m not a fool of that particular variety. So I make the picks, and if I get them wrong, I should be able to laugh it off and walk away.

Not so much.

I made a pretty decent show of it picking straight up in week 12. Finished 12-4, which gets me to 110-65-2 (.627) on the season. That should feel good, I suppose. But all I can focus on is the fact that I went 6-10 against the spread. And that lands me at a dismal 78-96-3 (.449) for the season. I don’t like any of it. Not one little bit.

I don’t expect to get any better, either. Still, somehow, I persist. Because I’m that variety of fool.

Here’s what not to expect as we hit the three-quarter mark of the 2016 season.

Dallas (-3.5) at Minnesota
The Vikings pass defense is sufficiently tough that one has to imagine they’ll be able to slow the Cowboys down a bit. If it weren’t for fact that both teams are playing on a full week’s rest (that is, if Dallas was traveling on a short week), that might be enough to make this a tossup. But I don’t think Minnesota can control the Dallas ground game. And that, I expect, will make all the difference. I think Dallas keeps the Minnesota offense off the field, controls the tempo of the game, and comes out on top by six.

Denver (-5) at Jacksonville
Denver needs a win. Jacksonville needs an actual pro football team. (Or maybe it doesn’t need a football team at all. I don’t know. Don’t really care.) It doesn’t matter much where this game is being played, the Broncos win it by at least double the spread.

Kansas City (+3.5) at Atlanta
Maybe if the Chiefs hadn’t just played a bruising, 75-minute game at Denver … . But, you know, even then Kansas City would be playing its second straight road game against a strong opponent. And they’d probably need to come out ahead by at least two turnovers to be able to pull off the upset, which isn’t likely against the Falcons. So I’m going to say Atlanta by a field goal.

Houston (+6.5) at Green Bay
This may be the Packers’ best remaining opportunity to string two wins together. (No, I don’t think Green Bay can run the table.) It certainly looks like a great opportunity for the Texans to keep the AFC South race tight by extending their losing streak to three games. Green Bay by four.

Philadelphia (-1) at Cincinnati
Neither of these teams is very good. The Eagles are probably a bit less not good than the Bengals. But location may equalize that. I like the underdogs at home here. Cincinnati by a point.

Detroit (+5.5) at New Orleans
The over/under on this game is 53.5. That’s 7.7 points more than the average total scoring in NFL games this season. One of these teams has a D that probably can’t contain the other team’s highly productive offense. The other team has virtually no defense at all. So, yeah, I’m gonna say bet the over. Also, Saints by three.

San Francisco (+1.5) at Chicago
If you’re going to be one of the top prospects in the 2017 NFL draft, it might be a good idea to watch this game. Otherwise, if you’re unfortunate enough to live in a media market where this is your only choice, for god’s sake find something better to do with your time. Go chop down a tree and drag it into your living room. Make a giant baking soda volcano in your bathtub. Watch one of those overlong, pointless Gilmore Girls episodes. Anything. It’s entirely possible these two teams stumble into some previously undiscovered way for both of them to lose. If not, I don’t know, 49ers by a point. (Because that’s where the damned dart stuck, OK? That’s why.)

Los Angeles (+13.5) at New England
If you follow me on social media, you may have seen my rundown of the (somewhat limited) history of the Belichick-Brady era Patriots vs. teams coached by Jeff Fisher. It’s not terribly helpful in terms of predicting the outcome of this game, but I thought it was kind of interesting just the same. Here’s what I’m thinking in regard to Sunday afternoon. Bill Belichick’s got two games worth of film to study on the Rams rookie quarterback. That ought to be sufficient. And, hell, it’s not like opposing coaches having less film to review has proven particularly helpful to young Mr. Goff. So that would seem to put the home team in a fairly comfortable position. And here are your big three predictive stats: scoring differential, Patriots +7.4; passer rating differential, Patriots +18.1; takeaway-giveaway differential, Patriots +7. I think it’s likely to be a long afternoon in Foxborough for the Rams. New England by 17.

Miami (+3.5) at Baltimore
The winner of this game stays in the hunt for a spot in the playoffs. The loser not so much. (And neither gets out of the wild card round, anyhow.) I suspect the Ravens defense will be just a bit too much for the Dolphins to overcome. Baltimore by three.

Buffalo (+3) at Oakland
There’s just no way a one-dimensional team like the Bills keeps ups with the Raiders in Oakland. It’s really that simple. Oakland by nine.

Tampa Bay (+3.5) at San Diego
If you can beat the Chiefs in Kansas City one week, and you can beat the Seahawks anywhere the next, you ought to be able to follow it up by beating the Chargers in San Diego. I think. At the very least, you can usually count on the Chargers to beat themselves. Bucs by four.

Washington (+2.5) at Arizona
The second of three straight road games losses for the Racists. Cardinals by one.

NY Giants (+6) at Pittsburgh
I think these teams are fairly evenly matched. But I also think the Steelers need a win here a whole lot more than the Giants, who can drop their next two and still finish 11-5 and grab the NFC five seed, which is about their most realistic seeding anyhow (they’re not overtaking the Cowboys). I suspect the need factor, home field, and probably a key takeaway, add up to Steelers win. But not by six. Let’s go with three.

Carolina (+6.5) at Seattle
The last time these two teams met … well, the Panthers were a lot better and the Seahawks were a lot more banged up; and the game was played in Charlotte; and Seattle still very nearly battled back from at 31-point halftime deficit. So I guess what I’m saying is, no, I don’t much like Carolina’s chances here. Seahawks by a touchdown.

Indianapolis (-1) at NY Jets
Last I checked, the Colts still hadn’t figured out how to play run defense. Jets by six.

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Week Twelve Picks

November 23rd, 2016 Comments off

Well, I guess I’ve got something to be thankful for.

Straight up, anyhow, I had a decent go of it in week 11. Finished 11-3, which ain’t so bad. And, sure, I went 6-7-1 against the spread. But what can you do? Baby steps.

I now sit at 98-61-2 (.615) straight up, 72-86-3 (.457) against the spread.

Happy Thanksgiving.

Here’s what not to expect on the football field.

Minnesota (+2.5) at Detroit
You could probably set the over/under on total run plays in this game somewhere around 40. Which is to say that it may be Christmas before the damned thing’s over. The Lions come out ahead by a point.

Washington (+7) at Dallas
The Racists couldn’t handle the Cowboys in Washington back at a point in the season when Dak Prescott was just getting his pro football legs under him. Kind of hard to imagine, in that context, that Washington has much hope of making this game competitive. Dallas by 13.

Pittsburgh (-9) at Indianapolis
The Colts wouldn’t have won this game even with Andrew Luck. They’re certainly not winning it without him. Steelers by 10.

San Diego (+1.5) at Houston
I think the Chargers are, in many ways, the better team in this match. Except for that thing where they keep finding creative ways to lose. I think the story of San Diego’s season continues here. Chargers lead for most of the game, but the Texans end up on top by a field goal.

Tennessee (-5) at Chicago
Every time you think this season couldn’t possibly get any worse for the Bears, it does. Tennessee by nine.

Jacksonville (+7.5) at Buffalo
It’s not the reason to pick Buffalo in this game — because there is no the reason; it’s all of the reasons — but this really stands out, so I’ll note it: takeaway-giveaway differential, Bills +23. These teams are 10 games into the season. It really doesn’t get a whole lot uglier than that. Buffalo by a gazillion. Or 17 anyhow.

Cincinnati (+4.5) at Baltimore
The Ravens are a one-dimensional team whose season will be over soon enough. The Bengals now are officially a no-dimensional team whose season is over already. Ravens by a touchdown.

Arizona (+4) at Atlanta
I like the Falcons offense’s chances of overcoming the Cardinals defense better than the Arizona offense’s chances of exploiting the weak Atlanta D. But not by a lot. Falcons by a field goal.

San Francisco (+8) at Miami
One of these teams really isn’t that good. But the other one really is that bad. Dolphins by seven.

Los Angeles (+7) at New Orleans
Years from now this will be remembered as a game no one remembers at all. Saints by 12.

NY Giants (-7) at Cleveland
This game could easily feature more total turnovers (by both teams) than points scored by the home team. Giants by 14.

Seattle (-5.5) at Tampa Bay
The Buccaneers may indeed be better than I’ve tended to think. But they’re not on the same level as the Seahawks. Seattle by seven.

Carolina (+3.5) at Oakland
What will work out to be a season-ending two-week West Coast swing for the Panthers starts with a what will likely be the less humiliating loss. Raiders by 10.

New England (-8) at NY Jets
There come these moments, not in every season, but certainly once in every three or four, when the sports media and Patriots fans decide that there’s something seriously amiss with New England. Often, the story goes that Bill Belichick the GM has hamstrung Bill Belichick the head coach. (Belichick’s failure as a GM is most often attributed either to cheapness or to an inability to assess talent accurately.) Sometimes the story is that Belichick has outsmarted himself, come to believe his own press, decided that his schemes, his genius, are so great that his team can win with any group of players. The players hate their coach. Belichick has lost the locker room. That kind of thing. Once, not so long ago, the story was that Tom Brady was in a steep decline. And that one will come back around at some point, but probably not this season. This season, it’s Belichick for sure. He traded Chandler Jones in the offseason. He traded Jamie Collins in the middle of the season. He demoted Jabaal Sheard to a role player, then a healthy scratch, for reasons he arrogantly refuses to reveal. He’s taken so many pieces away from his defense that they’re now giving up 18 points a game, which we know is a problem because only 29 teams in the entire league have allowed a higher average. I love these moments. I love them for the long term because they provide a nice bit of conflict (artificial, but not my artifice) that I can tap into when the comes time to build a narrative about the season. And I love them in the short term because they’re invariably followed by a series of games that make those who have been spinning tales of doom look like fools. And here, one suspects, we go again. Divisional games are always tough. Playing on the road for a second straight week is always tough. And it appears the Patriots run defense is going to have to overcome the absence of Alan Branch, which is going to make stopping Matt Forte any easier. Still and all, the reality is that the Jets are one of the league’s worst teams. Even in New Jersey, they shouldn’t pose much of an obstacle. Let’s look at the big three predictive stats: scoring differential, Patriots, +7.8; passer rating differential, Patriots +23.3; takeaway-giveaway differential, Patriots +13. Those numbers point to a bloodbath. (They also potentially point to the Patriots finally getting a few takeaways, maybe even their first defensive touchdown of the season.) New England by three touchdowns.

Kansas City (+3.5) at Denver
Last week’s home loss to Tampa Bay established that the Chiefs are frauds. This week’s road loss at Denver will punctuate that point by ending any thought that Kansas City can contend for the division title. Broncos by four.

Green Bay (+3.5) at Philadelphia
A week ago, I was one of those people who had been left wondering what exactly was wrong with the Packers. Today, I don’t much care. I just know that they’re bad, and that’s more than enough. The Eagles aren’t good, mind you, but they’re good enough for this game. Philadelphia by six.

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Week Eleven Picks

November 17th, 2016 Comments off

Dear god, I just keep getting worse.

I wrapped up week ten with records of 8-6 straight up, 6-8 against the spread. Ugh. I guess it could have been a lot worse considering that the favorites went 6-6 straight up, 3-9 against the spread (with two games going off even). But still. Ugh.

I head into week eleven at 87-58-2 (.599) straight up, 66-79-2 (.449) against the spread. Are you impressed by those numbers? Because I’m not.

So, you know, here’s what you really, really shouldn’t expect this week.

New Orleans (+3.5) at Carolina
I don’t know. I guess in a short week I have to take the hideously unbalanced team that’s playing at home over the hideously unbalanced team playing on the road. Right? Carolina by three.

Tennessee (+3) at Indianapolis
If I were smart, I’d take the squad that already took game one of the season series on the road to close it out with a win at home. And that’s how you know I’m not smart. I just think the better team’s got to win one out of two. Titans by four.

Jacksonville (+6.5) at Detroit
One of these teams may accidentally mount a ground attack this week. And that team will be the Lions. Detroit by eight.

Tampa Bay (+7.5) at Kansas City
If the Chiefs are going to be taken seriously, they’re going to need to prove that they can put away aggressively mediocre teams like the Buccaneers. I think they’ll do just that. Kansas City by 10.

Chicago (+7.5) at NY Giants
The Giants aren’t a great team. But the Bears will make them look like one. New Jersey by 13.

Arizona (even) at Minnesota
I don’t think I can confidently pick either of these teams to win. So I’ll take the Vikings to find a way to lose. Again. Arizona by a point.

Buffalo (+2.5) at Cincinnati
I was going to say that neither of these teams is going anywhere, but that’s not really true. The Bills are going home to Buffalo. That should be a treat. But at least they’ll be going there with a win. Buffalo by a field goal.

Baltimore (+7) at Dallas
One suspects the Cowboys may have a tough time getting their running game going against the Baltimore defense. If that’s the case, it’ll be interesting to see how the Dallas offense responds. As long as they can put up 17-20 points, which I expect they will, it should be enough. Given that, you know, Baltimore doesn’t really have an offense. Cowboys by four.

Pittsburgh (-8) at Cleveland
How do you snap a four-game losing streak? Play a team that’s rocking an 11-game losing streak. It’s a pretty solid formula. Steelers by two touchdowns.

Miami (-1.5) at Los Angeles
Well, I suppose Jared Goff was going to have to start running for his life at some point. It’s tough to scheme against a QB without film to study, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dolphins gave up a few big passes early. But they’ll catch up by the second half. Miami by six.

New England (-13) at San Francisco
Assuming Tom Brady finishes his career with the Patriots (not that I’m arguing this is necessarily a safe assumption), this will be the only game he ever plays in his home town against the team he grew up rooting for. That might not mean a whole lot. It might matter more that the Patriots have to be angry at themselves over last weekend’s lackluster loss and looking for a chance to right the ship. And it certainly matters a lot that the 49ers are a hopelessly weak team. Oh, and look at the big three predictive stats: scoring differential, Patriots +9.6; passer rating differential, Patriots +23.0 (that’s completely insane); takeaway-giveaway differential, Patriots +1. Gronk or no Gronk, New England wins this one by 20-ish.

Philadelphia (+6.5) at Seattle
I don’t think for a second that the Eagles offense is going to be able to overcome the Seahawks D. Seattle wins 19-13.

Green Bay (+2.5) at Washington
I don’t have an ounce of faith in either of these teams. Racists are at home, so I’ll go with them. Washington by a point.

Houston (+5.5) vs. Oakland at Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
I hope the people of Mexico City enjoy offense. Because that’s likely to be all they get in this game. Oakland wins a high-scoring game by a touchdown.

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Week Ten Picks

November 10th, 2016 Comments off

It feels like I’d have to be pretty damned tone deaf to lead off with bashing myself over my performance picking football games in the immediate wake of the American electorate’s miserable failure picking a president. So I’ll just present the W-L numbers straight up. (There’s no electoral college to invert the results here, either, so I’ve got to live with the raw data.)

In week nine, I went 8-5 picking straight up, 6-6-1 against the spread. For the season, that gets me to 79-52-2 (.602) straight up, 60-71-2 (.451) against the spread.

Moving on to week 10, here’s what not to expect.

Cleveland (+10) at Baltimore
If you can beat a team by five points in their building, you ought to be able to beat them by 10 in your own, right? Let’s add a few for the traveling on a short week disadvantage and call it Ravens by 13.

Houston (-1.5) at Jacksonville
There are only two teams in the NFL that have worse giveaway-takeaway differentials than the Texans’ -7. One of them is the Jaguars, who sit at the bottom of the barrel at -12. This is not the stuff good fooball games are made of. These teams that are not nearly so different as you might imagine if all you know is that Houston is leading the AFC South at 5-3 while Jacksonville is in the tank at 2-6. If you’re forced to watch, you should expect to see a sloppy game that ends with one squad or the other falling backward into victory. I guess I’ll take the visitors, since their ineptitude has proven less damaging to this point in the season. Texans by one.

Kansas City (+3) at Carolina
The Chiefs defense leads the league in interceptions with 12. Cam Newton‘s rocking an unimpressive interception percentage of 2.5. Kansas City wins this game by four.

Denver (+1.5) at New Orleans
This makes the second straight week in which the Broncos are on the road facing one of the league’s most productive quarterbacks and one of the league’s highest scoring offenses. They wilted last week. I expect much of the same again, though the Saints D should allow the Broncos at least to keep it a bit more competitive. New Orleans by a field goal.

Los Angeles (+1.5) at NY Jets
Even the Jets aren’t bad enough to lose a home game to the Rams. Probably. I think. New Jersey by three.

Atlanta (even) at Philadelphia
Each of these teams are about as unbalanced  as they come. The Falcons are all offense. The Eagles are all D. That should probably even out as they go head-to-head. But here’s something else to consider: Unbalanced Atlanta has, by and large, overcome better opposition in its six wins than unbalanced Philadelphia has in its four. I think the difference shows in this game. Falcons by six.

Minnesota (+3) at Washington
I can’t jump off the Vikings bandwagon. That’s mostly because I was never on it to begin with. But I still think Minnesota gets off the schneid this week. Vikings by two.

Green Bay (-2.5) at Tennessee
I don’t have any better idea than anyone else of what’s really wrong with the Packers. I know it doesn’t appear to be their run defense. Except, you know, when they face teams with a strong ground game. Titans by a point.

Chicago (even) at Tampa Bay
Check out this expert analysis: It’s a near certainty that one of these teams is just bad enough to lose to the other. You can’t get it that good anywhere else, folks. Home team by three.

Miami (+4) at San Diego
Fresh off three straight wins in Miami (to round out a four-game home stand) the Dolphins get back to losing on the road. Chargers by a touchdown.

San Francisco (+13.5) at Arizona
Let’s see if I have anything interesting to say about this game. Hold on. Hold on. Hold on. Nope. I’m empty. Cardinals by 17.

Dallas (+2.5) at Pittsburgh
I have absolutely no doubt that once Ben Roethlisberger is back to full health, the Steelers will be a dangerous team again. But the most recent evidence I have suggests that Roethlisberger isn’t quite there. Dallas by a field goal.

Seattle (+7.5) at New England
The Seahawks, who have managed one win over a good opponent all season (a week six nail-biter at home over Atlanta), travel across the country on six days rest to face the best team in the NFL. And, oh, yeah, the Patriots are coming off their bye. I’m not sure any of that bodes particularly well for Seattle. Neither do the big three predictive stats: Scoring differential, Patriots +3.6; passer rating differential, Patriots +9.8; takeaway-giveaway differential, Patriots +1. I’m not comfortable with the idea of giving more than a touchdown to a team with a defense as strong as the Seahawks’, though, so let’s say New England by six.

Cincinnati (+2.5) at NY Giants
The home team is the better team. I don’t think much more needs to be said. Giants by four.

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Week Nine Picks

November 3rd, 2016 Comments off

Yeah, OK, I’m just not getting any better at this. I don’t have any excuses to offer. I’m just, you know, not making the grade.

Week eight wasn’t a complete disaster for me picking straight up. I came in at 8-4-1 (enough with the ties, already). That probably wouldn’t be good enough to have kept me in the running in your office pool. But I’m not in your office pool, am I? (The other point of good news for me there is that I don’t have to listen to Jeff from accounts receivable talk about his fantasy team. Ever.) That gets me to 71-47-2 (.600) on the season.

Picking against the spread in week eight, I got more evidence that an old college professor (I mean, he wasn’t old; not then, anyhow; he’d be old now, because I’m old and I was a student back then) was probably talking mostly to me when he said, repeatedly, “Gambling is losing.” But here again, my cheapness compensates for my stupidity, as no actual bets were placed to make me truly regret my 6-7 finish. And that brings me to a very impressive record of 54-65-1 (.454) for the season.

Let’s have a look at what not to expect in week nine, shall we?

Atlanta (-4) at Tampa Bay
Predicted kickoff to punt ratio in this game: 12/2. The scoreboard operator gets a workout and Atlanta comes out ahead by six.

Jacksonville (+7.5) at Kansas City
I’m not sure these teams belong in the same league, let alone the same stadium. A defensive touchdown transforms a strong Kansas City victory into a blowout. Chiefs by 23.

Detroit (+6) at Minnesota
Six is a lot to give in a divisional game. Two weeks ago, that might not have seemed like a huge factor to me. The Lions can’t stop the pass. And Detroit hasn’t won a road game since week one. But then the Vikings went and fell apart a little bit. So now here I am, thinking six points is a lot to give in a divisional game. Don’t get me wrong; the Vikings are winning this game. I just think maybe four points makes more sense than six.

Philadelphia (+2.5) at NY Giants
The Giants ought to win this game. They’re coming off a bye. They’re hosting a division rival that’s playing its second straight game on the road, the first of which was a tough loss in OT to another division foe. And if they’re going to stay alive in the wild card race (Dallas is winning the NFC East title), the Giants need to win games like this. Those factors should be enough for New Jersey to get the job done. But, you know, I just don’t see it. Until I see evidence to the contrary, I have to view the Giants as an incomplete team. Can’t run the ball. Can’t hold on to the ball. Can’t score. That combination’s a problem. Eagles by a field goal.

Dallas (-7) at Cleveland
I feel fairly confident predicting that this game will not go into extra innings. (Neither is either team likely to be up 3-1 at any point.) Dallas by 10.

NY Jets (+3.5) at Miami
The Dolphins may yet turn out to be the second best team in the AFC East. Not a close second, mind you. But second. Miami by three.

Pittsburgh (even) at Baltimore
The Ravens have yet to beat a good team this season. I don’t see that changing here, regardless of whether Ben Roethlisberger plays. Pittsburgh by four.

New Orleans (-3.5) at San Francisco
The over/under on this game is set at 52.5. I suspect that may be a tad low. Saints 38, 49ers 27.

Carolina (-3) at Los Angeles
I hope the Rams defense is nice to Cam Newton so he doesn’t have to tell the commissioner on them. Or maybe everyone could just play football. Panthers by six.

Indianapolis (+7.5) at Green Bay
Hey, Super Bowl preview right here. Oh, wait. You say the Colts are … what? Terrible? Barely capable of getting by bad teams? The Packers, on the other hand, have proven quite good at getting by bad teams. I’ll go with solidly mediocre (and possibly still capable of more) at home over solidly in the mix for a top 10 draft pick. Packers by nine.

Tennessee (+5) at San Diego
The Chargers aren’t great at anything. In fact, they aren’t even good at many things. But they do pretty OK with stopping the run. San Diego by a touchdown.

Denver (even) at Oakland
The Raiders are legitimately pretty damned good for a change. Or at least they’re pretty damned good on offense. But good enough to overcome the Broncos D? Not so much. And Oakland’s weak enough on the other side of the ball that you can expect Denver to put up some points. Oakland keeps it close, but Denver comes out with a win. By a field goal.

Buffalo (-7) at Seattle
As uneven a season as it’s been for them, the Seahawks have managed to overcome the Dolphins and Jets. One is inclined to anticipate they’ll achieve similar results as they round out their series against the three lesser AFC East teams. (Next week’s opponent may present rather more of a challenge.) Seahawks by six.

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Week Eight Picks

October 27th, 2016 Comments off

If I had half a brain, I’d quit now before things get any uglier.

But I don’t.

Even in the face of a week seven finish of 8-6-1 straight up, 6-9 against the spread, I feel somehow compelled to soldier on. Because, you know, records of 63-43-1 (.593) straight up and 48-58-1 (.453) against the spread clearly are something one needs to build on.

Sigh.

Here’s what not to expect in week eight.

Jacksonville (+3.5) at Tennessee
The Titans defense goes into this game with six interceptions on the season. How much you want to bet they improve that total by 50 percent here? Tennessee by a touchdown.

Washington (+3) vs Cincinnati at Twickenham Stadium, London
Statistically speaking, these teams are virtually identical. (It’s a bit more nuanced than that, but it pretty much all comes out even.) Until you get to takeaway/giveaway differential, where the Bengals have a +5 advantage (Bengals +3, Racists -2). And since there’s no real home team in this game, I’ll hitch my wagon to that minor point of differentiation. Bengals by four.

Detroit (+2.5) at Houston
If the Lions had a ground game, they’d win this one easily. They don’t. So it’ll be a hard-fought victory. Detroit by two.

Seattle (-3) at New Orleans
The Seahawks offense hasn’t exactly been lighting it up. But the Saints D is about as sure a cure for that condition as you’ll find. And you can’t compensate for an awful D by putting up a ton of points in a game against Seattle. Seahawks by nine.

Arizona (+3) at Carolina
There’s no question but that the Cardinals are the better team in this match. And still … the Panthers are at home following a bye while the Cardinals are traveling across the country on the heels of a demoralizing slog of a five-quarter struggle for nothing. So I think I’ll look for the Panthers to win a close one. Carolina by a point.

New England (-6.5) at Buffalo
Revenge, blah, blah, blah. The Patriots don’t need a win here to avenge their only loss of the season, a game in which they barely participated. Tom Brady doesn’t need to pad his incredible stats here as part of some grand scheme to teach the league a lesson. Team and quarterback alike need a win here because the outcome of this game determines whether the Patriots organization can start designing its AFC East Champion T-shirts and caps while the coaches and players focus on capturing the one seed, or the Pats have to travel through the rest of the season with the Bills sitting just off their rear bumper. Regardless of motivation, I expect New England’s in for a tougher fight than many in Patriots Nation are counting on. The predictive stats (calculated based on four Pats games played without Brady), go like this: Scoring differential, Patriots +0.9; passer rating differential, Patriots +8.4; takeaway/giveaway differential, Bills +5. In Foxborough, that would point to a close Patriots win. In Buffalo, it points to a toss up. And still, with the Bills banged up, and Brady back in the mix, I expect New England to come out on top. It’ll be a game until very near the end, but it will end with the Patriots ahead by seven.

NY Jets (-3.5) at Cleveland
The Browns have to win a game at some point, right? Eh, maybe not. But what do I have to lose? I’m gonna be rooting for Cleveland anyhow. Browns by a field goal.

Oakland (+1) at Tampa Bay
No defense will be played in this game. Oakland by four.

Kansas City (-2.5) at Indianapolis
This would be a blowout in Missouri. But it’s not being played in Missouri. Chiefs by six.

San Diego (+5.5) at Denver
The Chargers managed to overcome a struggling Broncos squad in San Diego two weeks ago. I suspect Denver’s struggles are over, at least for the nonce. The Broncos turn the tables and even up the season series with an eight-point win.

Green Bay (+3) at Atlanta
Another game in which I don’t expect to see much by way of defense. When all the scoring is done, I think we’ll find the home team on top by four.

Philadelphia (+4.5) at Dallas
By the time the Eagles get to host a rematch in week 17, the Cowboys will have sewn up the NFC East. This game, however, should be a battle to the very end. Dallas by three.

Minnesota (-5.5) at Chicago
In which Jay Cutler resumes getting sacked all over the field. Well, maybe not all over the field. Just the Bears side of it. Vikings by 17.

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Week Seven Picks

October 20th, 2016 Comments off

It just keeps getting worse.

Actually, scratch that. The problem’s nothing to do with any it. The truth is, I keep getting worse.

I had my most miserable showing yet in week six, finishing the week a sorry 8-7 straight up, and a much sorrier still 6-8-1 against the spread. I’m not sure what to say other than ugh. For the season, that brings me to 55-37 (.598) straight up and, ulp, 42-49-1 (.462) against the spread.

And yet, I will continue to roll this same rock up this same hill ad infinitum. You can’t fix stupid.

So let’s waste no more time getting my drive for failure underway for the slate of games ahead.

Here’s what not to expect.

Chicago (+7.5) at Green Bay
I don’t believe for a second that Aaron Rodgers‘ ongoing struggles indicate that he’s in an irreversible decline. But neither do I believe Rodgers is likely to have an opportunity to address whatever issues are dogging him while quarterbacking a team with no real running game. None of what’s wrong with Rodgers or the rest of the offense should pose a real problem as the Packers host the Bears on a short week. But I’m sure as hell not giving a touchdown plus. Green Bay by four.

NY Giants (-3) vs Los Angeles at Twickenham Stadium, London
The Giants probably shouldn’t expect to win a lot of games in which they end up a -3 in giveaway/takeaway. I mean, obviously, it can happen. But it’s not something you want to let yourself feel too sure about. New Jersey by a point.

Minnesota (-2.5) at Philadelphia
And then, of course, there are the teams that know how to hold on to the ball. These two squads have three giveaways between them. On the season. That’s one lost fumble each, plus a pick for the Eagles. I’ve got a feeling the Eagles stop their two-game skid in this homecoming game. Philadelphia by a field goal.

New Orleans (+6.5) at Kansas City
I don’t like the idea of picking New Orleans on the road, but I just don’t know that Kansas City has the juice to win a shootout. Saints by two.

Washington (+1) at Detroit
I’m still not ready to buy into the Racists. But this week, against an opponent with no ground game, I’m on board. Washington by three.

Cleveland (+10) at Cincinnati
I wonder if anyone in Cleveland even cares that this game is being played. Bengals by a touchdown.

Buffalo (-3) at Miami
The Bills rush for 166 yards yards a game. The Dolphins allow 147 rushing yards per game. This game may be on the books by 2:30. Buffalo by 21.

Oakland (+1) at Jacksonville
Since neither team has a defense, I’m taking the one with the better offense. That’s the Raiders. Oakland by six.

Indianapolis (+2.5) at Tennessee
Good news for Andrew Luck: Given the state of the Colts run D, he’s unlikely to spend enough time on the field this week to take his customary four sacks. So that’s something. I think. Titans by four.

Baltimore (+1) at NY Jets
The Ravens close their two-week residency in the Meadowlands with a decisive victory over the weaker of the New Jersey teams. Baltimore by 10.

San Diego (+6.5) at Atlanta
Welcome to the air show. Falcons by five.

Tampa Bay (-2) at San Francisco
I don’t know which of these teams is less interested in winning football games. So I’m going with the favorite. Tampa by a field goal.

New England (-7) at Pittsburgh
Here’s are your big three predictive stats, all based on results achieved by the Patriots playing four of six games without Tom Brady and the Steelers playing all but one series of six games with Ben Roethlisberger: Scoring differential, Patriots +2.2; passer rating differential, Patriots +8.8; takeaway/giveaway differential, Patriots +6. And, you know, it’s Brady and Landry Jones under center for their respective teams this weekend. New England by 13

Seattle (+1.5) at Arizona
The Seahawks’ home win against the Falcons last week is the only victory either of these teams has managed over a strong opponent this season. That’s nice for Seattle. But I have no reason to believe it travels. Cardinals by three.

Houston (+7.5) at Denver
The last time Brock Osweiler played a football game in Denver, he was the better choice over a broken down Peyton Manning. That wasn’t such a great accomplishment, as Osweiler’s performance with the Texans this season has made abundantly clear. The Texans are a very different 4-2 than the Broncos. That’ll show in this game. Denver by seven.

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