This Football Blog

I suppose there are worse ruts to be stuck in.

And, um, when I say I suppose, I probably mean I know.

Week three was the second week running in which my picks came in 11-5 straight up, 8-8 against the spread. And, yeah, I’d like to think I could do a whole lot better. But I’m pretty sure I should have done a whole lot worse. So I’ll take it.

For the season, I stand at 34-13-1 (.719) straight up and 24-23-1 (.510) with the points.

Given that I’m still mostly just flipping a coin at this point (I’ll start to feel like I have sufficient data to support poor analysis and worse decision making after this week’s set of games are in the books), the law of large numbers should probably catch up with me any second now. So, you know, approach all of the below with the complete lack of confidence and respect it deserves.

That is, here’s what not to expect in week four.

Philadelphia (+4.5) at Green Bay
I think I’m supposed to believe that the 3-0 Packers aren’t quite as good as their record implies, and that the 1-2 Eagles are better than their record lets on. And maybe both of those things are true. I certainly can think of teams I find more impressive than Green Bay. But I’m not picking based on what I think I’m supposed to think. Or at least not if it means taking the road team on a Thursday night. Packers by a field goal.

Carolina (+4.5) at Houston
The Cam Newton-less Panthers are playing their second straight road game. And this week’s competition is a good bit tougher than last week’s. Texans by six.

Cleveland (+7) at Baltimore
The Ravens have been playing pretty good football. The Browns, for all the preseason hype, have been playing like the Browns. Baltimore by nine.

Washington (+3) at NY Giants
The Giants still have a ways to go before they’re contenders again. But they’re already better than the awful Racists. New Jersey by four.

LA Chargers (-16) at Miami
The Chargers, stop me if you’ve heard this one before, are not known for their success record in 1 p.m. games on the east coast. And still, the Dolphins are scoring 5.3 points per game and allowing 44.3. So let’s go ahead and give the points. Chargers by 20.

Oakland (+7) at Indianapolis
You can probably count on the Raiders to beat all of the bad teams they play this season. That puts them in line for their next week when the host the Bengals in week 11. Colts by 13.

Kansas City (-6.5) at Detroit
I actually think the Lions can give the Chiefs a game. I recognize that I’m maybe the only person who thinks so. But that’s OK. I think Detroit’s offense is well positioned to take advantage of Kansas City’s inadequate D. And I suspect the Lions D can frustrate the Chiefs offense for at least a little while. In the end, I think the Chiefs have just too many offensive options for the Lions to be able to go 60 minutes against them. So I still like Kansas City in this one. But maybe by only a field goal.

New England (-7) at Buffalo
Spare me the whole “meeting of two 3-0 teams for control of the AFC East” bit, will you? The Bills can’t score on the Patriots’ defense. This one gets ugly early. New England by 17.

Tennessee (+4) at Atlanta
I don’t trust either of these teams, unless it’s to find ways to lose football games. I’ll give the edge to the home team, I suppose. But I won’t be shocked by any outcome. Falcons by three.

Tampa Bay (+9.5) at LA Rams
The home team’s better on both sides of the ball. Rams by a touchdown.

Seattle (-5) at Arizona
You get the feeling the Seahawks may be going into this game thinking they have something to prove, if only to themselves. The point they’re hoping to make, however, may not end up being quite so plain as they might like. Seattle by four.

Minnesota (+2) at Chicago
It would be interesting if one of these teams could beat a strong competitor. I think maybe the Vikings beating the Bears in Chicago would qualify. Minnesota by a three.

Jacksonville (+3) at Denver
I’m not really on the Minshew Mania bandwagon. But this week I can pretend to be. Because the risk is exceedingly low. Jaguars by a point.

Dallas (-2.5) at New Orleans
I’m not inclined to start believing in the Cowboys just because the Saints don’t have their starting QB. New Orleans by six.

Cincinnati (+4) at Pittsburgh
I don’t care how the Steelers have struggled to this point, they’re not losing at home to a terrible division opponent. Pittsburgh by three.

The darts in week two struck only slightly less accurately than they did in week one. I’ll take it.

I was right on 11 of 16 games picking straight up last weekend, and on eight against the spread. That lands me at 23-8-1 (.734) straight up and 16-15-1 (.516) on the young season.

And the really good news is that 14 weeks is a lot of time for me to get way worse at this. Should kick in right around the time I start to think I know something — maybe two weeks from now.

Here’s what not to expect in week three.

Tennessee (-1.5) at Jacksonville
Here’s where the Jaguars finally get a win. It’s pretty much guaranteed. What makes me so sure? Simple: I always pick the Thursday night games wrong. And I’m expecting the Titans to win by a field goal.

Denver (+7.5) at Green Bay
Every time the Broncos take the field, the Ravens end up looking that much smarter. Green Bay by nine.

Detroit (+6) at Philadelphia
I’d take the home team in this match no matter which it was. Eagles by three.

Baltimore (+6.5) at Kansas City
Although their stats indubitably are skewed by the fact that they faced weak opposition in their first two games, I think the Ravens are the more complete, more balanced team. Were this game being played in Baltimore, I’d be sorely tempted to pick them. But it’s in Kansas City, so I’ll just look for the Ravens to make it interesting. Chiefs by a point. At the buzzer.

Cincinnati (+6) at Buffalo
Sooner or later, the Bills are going to have to face a good opponent. … Wait, what’s that again? Oh, OK. … Next week, the Bills are gong to have to face a good opponent. But next week isn’t this week, is it? Buffalo by seven.

Atlanta (+1.5) at Indianapolis
Hey, look, the Colts are playing a home game! That’s novel. Indy by a field goal (yes, an Adam Vinatieri field goal).

Oakland (+9) at Minnesota
Which one of these teams is more uneven? Why it’s the Raiders, of course. Though maybe not by quite as much as one might be temped to think. Vikings by six.

NY Jets (+22) at New England
Maybe the only thing stranger than seeing a 22-point spread on an NFL game is figuring it’s pretty safe to give the points. The Patriots outscored their first two opponents this season by a combined 76-3. And one of those teams not only had a quarterback (at the time), but a decent team around him. New England by 36.5. (And the Jets front office asks the musical question, “We fired Todd Bowles for what exactly?”)

Miami (+22) at Dallas
You almost get the feeling that Vegas doesn’t think very highly of certain AFC East teams. The Dolphins were outscored 102-10 in their first two games. They were home games. Cowboys by as many as they want. But for the purposes of this prediction, let’s figure the margin comes out at something like 51.

NY Giants (+6.5) at Tampa Bay
New quarterback, same old struggles for New Jersey. Bucs by seven.

Carolina (+1.5) at Arizona
You might have heard this, but quarterback is kind of an important position in football. Cardinals by three.

New Orleans (+4) at Seattle
See immediately above. Seahawks by six.

Houston (+3) at LA Chargers
I don’t know. I think the Texans are a bit better than anyone seems to realize. Houston by three.

Pittsburgh (+6.5) at San Francisco
I’ve got a feeling the Steelers are going to end up being a fairly strong team before this season is out. But not quite yet. Niners by seven.

LA Rams (-3) at Cleveland
The Browns are 1-1 headed for 1-6.

Because the Browns are still the Browns. Rams by 10.

Chicago (-4) at Washington
The Bears are nothing to get excited about. But the Racists are a misfortune headed for a disaster. Chicago by five.

Not bad for pure guesswork. I suppose.

I got out of week one with records of 12-3-1 (.781) picking straight up and 8-7-1 (.531) picking against the spreads. It was pure luck that got me there, of course. No one knows what the hell to expect in week one. Or week two for that matter. My darts just happened to land on the right part of the board more often than not.

Let’s see if I can’t plunge toward mediocrity with this week’s wild and largely uninformed guesses. Which is to say, here’s what not to expect in week two.

Tampa Bay (+6.5) at Carolina
Jameis Winston is a turnover machine. And he’s extra fond of giving the ball to he Carolina defense. In seven career starts against the Panthers, Winston has thrown nine picks and lost five fumbles. You don’t need me to do this math for you, but I will anyhow: That’s an average of two giveaways a game. Not a hopeful sign for a team traveling on short rest. Panthers by nine.

Indianapolis (+3) at Tennessee
As if the Colts didn’t have enough obstacles to deal with this season, they get to start year with two straight road games. Who knows, maybe Marlon Mack goes off again this week. And maybe it makes a difference this time. But I’m not counting on either of those results. Titans by four.

LA Chargers (-2.5) at Detroit
Whichever team comes closest to playing all four quarters this week wins. I’m thinking that’s probably the Chargers. By a point.

Buffalo (-1.5) at NY Giants
The Bills wrap up their two-week residency in East Rutherford with a Super Bowl XXV rematch. How exciting! Better still, if the Bills win, they capture the title in the closely watched real New York vs. fake New York occasional football tournament. And all the rest of the league will be able to do is look on in envy. Buffalo by a field goal.

Arizona (+13.5) at Baltimore
On one hand, this week’s unimpressive Ravens opponent actually appears at least to be interested in playing to a tie. On the other, the Cardinals have to travel across the country to play an early game against a team that is probably a good bit better than they are. On the third hand, well, there is no third hand, of course. (Are you new here?) Ravens by 17.

New England (-18.5) at Miami
This year, it’ll be a miracle if Dolphins manage to put as much as three points on the board. Patriots by 28.

Dallas (-5) at Washington
In which the Cowboys continue to masquerade as an elite football team, a pageant that is scheduled to end two weeks from now in New Orleans. Dalls by a field goal.

Jacksonville (-9) at Houston
Can Gardner Minshew continue to complete 88% of his passes? Can he continue to throw TDs on eight percent of his passes? Can he maintain his 11 yards per attempt? His 122.5 passer rating? These are the big questions. … No they aren’t. They barely qualify as little questions. They do have a little answer, though. It’s no. Texans by six.

Seattle (+4) at Pittsburgh
The Seahawks barely got by the Bengals at home. They’re not traveling across the country and beating an angry, embarrassed and desperate Steelers squad. Pittsburgh by a touchdown.

San Francisco (+1.5) at Cincinnati
YepIn case you haven’t figured it out, I’m not particularly high on the 2019 Bengals. But they’ve got to be better than the Buccaneers. And playing a second straight game on the road is always a challenge. Cincinnati by a point.

Minnesota (+3) at Green Bay
Dear Vikings: Woody Hayes is 32 years dead. You may need to work out a passing attack at some point. Packers by four.

Kansas City (-7.5) at Oakland
Patrick Mahomes’ ankle might prove problematic at some point this season. But not this week. It’s a second straight road game for the Chiefs, and against a division rival no less, which makes seven and a half feel excessive to me. But only by a couple of points. Chiefs by six.

New Orleans (+2.5) at LA Rams
I’m not sure I’d pick the Saints in Los Angeles under any circumstances. But traveling on a short week after their nail-biter at home on Monday night? I just don’t see the ball bouncing their way this time. Should be a great one to watch, though. Rams by four.

Chicago (-2.5) at Denver
Am I crazy or is this the one of the easiest picks of the week? Bears by a touchdown.

Philadelphia (-1.5) at Atlanta
The Falcons kind of have to win this game. Which is a shame for them. Because they’re not going to. Eagles by six.

Cleveland (-2.5) at NY Jets
I’m not even sure the Jets are going to be able to field a complete team. Browns by seven.

There’s a part of me that really likes picking week one games. It’s the part that should be in control throughout the season, the one that says, “Dude, you know exactly nothing. Stop thinking. Take your best guess and move on.”

This is the one week I’m smart enough to listen. Or where I make it look like I’m smart enough to listen by virtue of having nothing I can pretend to base my inaccurate picks on.

For whatever little it’s worth, I wrapped up the 2018 regular season 163-91-2 (.641) straight up and 124-122-10 (.504) with the points. I went 5-6 in the postseason both picking straight and picking against the spread, which landed me at an aggregate 168-97-2 (.631) straight up, 129-128-10 (.502). But, you know, I totally nailed Super Bowl LIII (yes, I am going to keep pointing that out; you would, too). So I’m going into this year riding high.

Here’s what not to expect (or maybe what you should expect; I don’t know) as the 2019 NFL season gets underway.

Green Bay (+3) at Chicago
The line on this game amounts to Vegas saying, “Yeah, we don’t know either.” Which I suppose is kind of comforting. Now watch me hedge: Bears by a point.

Atlanta (+4) at Minnesota
I’ve got both of these teams making the playoffs this season. So that’s a little bit of a thing. Entirely beside the point in week one, of course. But a bit of a thing just the same. In any meeting of evenly matched squads you take the home team. So I’m taking the home team. Vikings by three.

Washington (+9.5) at Philadelphia
The Eagles should be the better team here by quite a lot. And maybe they really are that much better than the Racists. But nine and a half in a division game? It’s just too much. Philadelphia by a touchdown.

Buffalo (+3) at NY Jets
It’s almost a given that one of these teams won’t lose this week. I’ll just figure it works out to be the home team. Jets by two.

Baltimore (-7) at Miami
If I weren’t expecting the Ravens to get off to a bit of a slow start (what with the whole new offense thing) I might be tempted to give the points. The Ravens still should win this game (unless they don’t), but I’m thinking it’s by something more like four.

Kansas City (-3.5) at Jacksonville
I’d love to feel good about picking the Jaguars. I really would. I mean, look, the Chiefs have no defense. Nick Foles ought to be able to do something with that, right? And Jacksonville should once again have a very good D, so maybe they can limit the much ballyhooed Kansas City O. But I don’t know. A loss by everybody’s Super Bowl LIV favorites on opening weekend would be just too perfect, wouldn’t it? Too perfect indeed. I’m gonna call a close (one-point) victory by Kansas City, and mischievously hope for an outright upset by the home dogs.

Tennessee (+5.5) at Cleveland
If this game were being played in Nashville, I’m pretty sure I’d take the Titans. I know the Browns are everybody’s pet pick this season, but I’m not entirely sold. Cleveland has some O line issues. And Tennessee has the personnel on the defensive front to expose those. I don’t think it will be enough to earn the Titans a win in Cleveland on opening day. But I do think it will keep things close. Browns by a field goal.

LA Rams (-3) at Carolina
The Rams are just the better team. Los Angeles by six.

Cincinnati (+9.5) at Seattle
Don’t even think about putting money on this game. Nine and a half points in week one. Are you kidding? Yeah, the Seahawks win. And they probably cover. But one weird bounce and it’s a late field-goal to cut the lead to 7 or extend it to 10 and you’re shaking your head and muttering about how you should have known better. And you should have. Since there’s no money on the line for me, I’ll say Seattle by 10.

Indianapolis (+6.5) at LA Chargers
Can you belive the team in this game scrambling to replace a retired QB is the Colts? Chargers by a touchdown.

NY Giants (+7) at Dallas
Seven’s a lot to give in a divisional game. But the Giants are not a good football team. And the Cowboys should at least sustain the illusion that they’re a good football team through the early part of this season. Dallas by nine.

Detroit (-2.5) at Arizona
Better line play wins the day. Detroit by four.

San Francisco (pick ’em) at Tampa Bay
Neither of these teams is going far this season. But the Niners come into the campaign in slightly better shape than the Bucs. San Francisco by three.

Pittsburgh (+5.5) at New England
You’ve no doubt heard or read about Tom Brady‘s career success in home games against the Steelers. And, yeah 5-0 with 18 TDs, 0 INTs, and a passer rating of 130.8 is … well, it’s pretty damned good. But it’s meaningless in terms of forecasting this game. Every season is different. Every game is different. And the Patriots and Steelers teams that will meet on Sunday night are different from the Patriots and Steelers who have met in the past. Don’t get me wrong. This looks to me like a New England win. I just think it’s likely to be a defensive victory. Maybe 16-10. Something like that. So, yeah, I guess I’m still giving the points.

Houston (+7) at New Orleans
The Texans are going to win a few games this season. But this won’t be one of them. Saints by 10.

Denver (pick ’em) at Oakland
… Not with a bang but a whimper. Oakland (I guess). By a field goal (probably.)

I think I’ll start by noting that a year ago at this time, I predicted the Patriots would beat the Rams in Super Bowl LIII.

Seriously. I totally did.

And then (ready for this?) the week before the game, I predicted that the Patriots would force Jared Goff to make a fatal mistake late in the game and that New England would come away with a 10-point victory. Which is, you know, exactly what ended up happening. And, OK, sure, I got pretty much everything in between completely wrong. But still, pretty good, right?

So what I should do now is retire from making any kind of predictions. Because I’m never doing any better than that.

And also, trying to predict the outcomes of football games five months in advance is an exceedingly stupid thing to do. But, uh, I guess I’m an exceedingly stupid person. Because once again, here I go.

As usual, I’m not going to predict win-loss records. I’ve found I can be just as wrong just as often in offering a range of the total wins I think each team is capable of. And then, I’ll get into specific matchups and outcomes in my postseason predictions, mostly because I can’t come up with a way out of it.

Let’s get on with it, then, shall we?

AFC East

New England Patriots, 12-14
The 2019 Patriots offense was always going to need a bit of time to get into a groove. No, not because Tom Brady is 42 years old, though there will be no shortage of pundits and fans ready to pin a slow offensive start on the GOAT. And not entirely because of the significant adjustment losing a player like Rob Gronkowski requires, though Gronk’s retirement is certainly a significant factor (and one the will be pointed to frequently by frustrated fans and gleeful haters alike). It’s to do with the scope of changes the O has undergone during the off-season. The New England offense during Brady’s career has been better than most (all?) at adjusting to change. But even they need time to work things out on the field. And that task became even harder with the last-minute loss of their starting center to injured reserve. I expect the Pats to lean on the ground game early on, perhaps through the entire first half of the season. And I expect that shift to scare the life out of fans. But at the same time, I expect a Patriots defense that looks stronger than it has in maybe 16 years to allow the new offense the luxury to grow into itself. And assuming everything manages to click by the time December rolls around, I expect New England go to into the postseason strong and ready to make yet another run at the championship.

Buffalo Bills, 7-10
The Bills were maybe a half step better than a shrug a year ago. And they’ve probably improved by half a step, which means they should be a shrug and a friendly sigh this season. But they’ve also got a tough schedule. So maybe the ball bounces their way a few times and they finish a bit better than last season’s 6-10. And maybe not.

New York Jets, 5-8
Somewhere in the middle of their transition from a one-dimensional team focused on defense to a one-dimensional team focused on offense, the Jets may accidentally achieve enough balance to win a few games they really should lose.

Miami Dolphins, 2-4
The Dolphins weren’t looking like a very good team even before they gave up on the season (or didn’t, even though they did). Which might explain why they gave up on the season.

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers, 9-11
The Steelers are going to go as far this season as their defense takes them. And that’s not my way of saying I think Ben Roethlisberger can’t or won’t pick up where he left off in 2018, which wasn’t his best season but was his best season in quite some time. I honestly don’t know whether he can, particularly in light of the Steelers’ meaningful off-season changes in offensive personnel. But I do know that the younger, more athletic D Pittsburgh is fielding this season looks like the kind of unit that can carry a team with an evolving offense for at least half a season, and possibly a good bit longer. The Steelers may miss the playoffs again. Or they may get to the second or third round. Which it is will depend largely on just how good Pittsburgh’s D turns out to be.

Cleveland Browns, 8-12
Maybe the Browns turn out to be as good as the hype around them would have one believe. Maybe they turn out to be the Browns yet again.

Baltimore Ravens, 7-11
Lamar Jackson might take a step back this year. Or he might not. And if he does, it will probably be less about Jackson than the Ravens’ new offense. (Jackson’s a talented QB, who’s going to work out just fine for Baltimore over the long term.) Whether the Ravens end up repeating as division champs or getting an early start to their off-season will depend not only upon how Jackson plays, but on whether the D is up to last year’s high standard, and whether the team gets a few good bounces over the course of a challenging schedule.

Cincinnati Bengals, 5-7
The best thing that can happen with the Bengals this year is that they finally figure out their quarterback is a liability.

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts, 7-11
I thought about changing my forecast for the Colts following Andrew Luck’s abrupt retirement. And then I didn’t. No disrespect to Luck, who was a terrific passer when he was healthy. It’s just that you never really knew how healthy Luck was or how long he’d stay that way (which, you know, is a huge part of why he’s now retired). I still feel about the Colts roughly the same way I feel about the rest of the AFC South. They could be good. They could be mediocre. They shouldn’t be awful. And they probably can’t be great. Let’s see how the ball bounces.

Jacksonville Jaguars, 7-11
Another AFC South team I have no idea what to make of. (See the second half of my thoughts on the Colts above.)

Tennessee Titans, 7-11
And another.

Houston Texans, 7-11
And still another.

AFC West

Los Angeles Chargers, 11-13
I know it’s heresy to pick any team except the Chiefs to win the AFC West this season. (Hell, it may be heresy to pick any team other than the Chiefs to take the conference title.) But I’m one of those folks who remembers that the Chargers exist. And, well, they were good enough last year to reach the divisional round. And this year’s squad is probably a notch better than last year’s. So let’s see what happens.

Kansas City Chiefs, 10-12
I’d probably go along with the crowd and take the Chiefs to win the division if Kansas City had used the off-season to develop a defense. It didn’t. (This, I have to say, is not a surprise.) The Chiefs O is still more than good enough to carry a team to a division title and deep into the playoffs. But the team is going to falter eventually. It’s just a question of when.

Oakland Raiders, 5-7
The Raiders are probably going in the right direction. But they’re not getting there fast. Not in this division.

Denver Broncos, 3-6
I’ve never been a Joe Flacco hater. He’s fine. Not as good as he thinks he is. Not as bad as his detractors make him out to be. Fine. But Flacco is not the answer in Denver.

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles, 9-12
Philadelphia put a balanced team on the field last season. And were it not for a bit of wear following their 2017 title run, they might have repeated as division champs. As it was, they seemed to figure things out down the stretch and into the first week of the postseason. They look like a pretty balanced squad again this year. And I’m expecting a little more experience and a little more rest to make a difference.

Dallas Cowboys, 8-11
Last season, the Cowboys struggled early and surged late, earning a division title and winning in the wild card round before falling to the eventual conference champion Rams. I expect to see the opposite this year. The Cowboys should come hot out of the gate, but I suspect they’ll stumble as the games get tougher down the stretch. In the end, I think the best they’ll manage is a wild card berth.

Washington Racists, 7-11
I think the Racists are still probably a season away from making a run at the division and the playoffs. But I won’t be shocked if it turns out I’m not giving them enough credit.

New York Giants, 4-7
The Giants have some work to do.

NFC North

Minnesota Vikings, 8-12
I’m looking at the NFC North in much the same way I see the AFC South. Except for this part: I know that I’m supposed to be excited about at least one (most seem to think it’s this one) and perhaps as many as three of these teams (all but the Lions). But I’m just not. Which isn’t to say I think they’ll all stink. I actually think the division may send two teams to the postseason. It’s just that I couldn’t tell you which two. And I think all four of them have a shot

Green Bay Packers, 8-12
Maybe they’ll be great. Maybe they won’t. Depends in a lot of ways on whether Aaron Rodgers believes he’s playing for the Packers or playing for himself.

Chicago Bears, 7-11
I’m still not sold on Mitchell Trubisky. But sometimes I’m wrong about stuff.

Detroit Lions, 7-11
I still believe football games are won and lost in the trenches. So I still believe the Lions can win games. How many depends on whether they can do more than win the battle at the line of scrimmage.

NFC South

New Orleans Saints, 12-14
Sooner or later age is going to catch up with Drew Brees (just as it’s going to catch up with the guy in New England). But I’ve seen nothing that leads me to believe it’s going to happen this season. The Saints ran away with the division last season. They may get more of a challenge this time around. But they still come out on top.

Atlanta Falcons, 9-12
The Falcons might have made a run at the division a year ago if they’d been a bit healthier. They still wouldn’t have overtaken the Saints, mind you. But they might have made it interesting. Maybe this year.

Carolina Panthers, 7-11
If Cam Newton can stay healthy (assuming he’s actually healthy right now), the Panthers can be dangerous. Do you believe Newton can stay healthy? Because I’m not sure I do.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 5-8
I’m confident Bruce Arians can get the Buccaneers turned around. But not all at once.

NFC West

Los Angeles Rams, 11-14
The Rams look like the kind of team that’s going to be very good for a very long time. And unless the Seahawks surge, I think that puts Los Angeles in line for a third straight division title and probably at least a first round bye.

Seattle Seahawks, 10-12
The Seahawks definitely have the look of a postseason contender again this year. Whether they end up on the road as a wild card qualifier or at home for at least a week probably comes down to whether they can split the season series with the Rams, something they didn’t manage last year. Which means Seattle will probably know what their postseason prospects look like come October 3.

San Francisco 49ers, 7-10
The 49ers might be dangerous this year if Jimmy Garoppolo can shake off the rust quickly. Me, I tend to think Garoppolo’s going to need at least half a season to get into form. And by then, the Niners will probably be looking ahead to 2020.

Arizona Cardinals, 4-6
Kyler Murray should be fun to watch, anyhow.

Playoffs

This is the really stupid part of this exercise. (OK, the extra stupid part.) The part where I pretend it makes some kind of sense to predict what will happen 17, 18, 19, 20 or 22 weeks down the road. Because that makes sense.

AFC
1. New England
2. L.A. Chargers
3. Pittsburgh
4. Jacksonville
5. Kansas City
6. Cleveland

NFC
1. New Orleans
2. L.A. Rams
3. Philadelphia
4. Minnesota
5. Seattle
6. Atlanta

Wild Card Playoffs

AFC
Pittsburgh defeats Cleveland
Kansas City defeats Jacksonville

NFC
Atlanta defeats Philadelphia
Seattle defeats Minnesota

Divisional Playoffs

AFC
Los Angeles defeats Pittsburgh
New England defeats Kansas City

NFC
New Orleans defeats Atlanta
Los Angeles defeats Seattle

Conference Championships

AFC
New England defeats Los Angeles

NFC
New Orleans defeats Los Angeles

Super Bowl LIV (forever to be known as the Geezer Bowl)
New England defeats New Orleans

The good news for me is that last year I was doing pretty OK with my postseason picks, only to trip at the finish line. So, you know, maybe the fact that I’ve struggled thus far in this year’s playoffs means I’m headed toward a spot-on Super Bowl pick. Because that’s how things like this work, right?

No? Crap. I thought someone might say that.

I went 1-1 both straight up and against the spread in the conference championship round, which breaks down to 2-0 in the AFC, 0-2 in the NFC. I could blame my failure on the refs, I suppose, but I suspect there’s enough of that going around. And whether it’s the zebras’ fault or my own, I’m now sitting at 4-6 (.400), both with and without the points, as we head into the final game of the season. That means my best possible finish is .455. So no matter what transpires on the field Sunday, I’ll still be a loser. What fun.

Here’s what not to expect in the big game.

New England (-2.5) vs. LA Rams

 Let’s start with the paint by numbers stuff, which I know is fun for everybody.

So there you have it. And there’s nothing left for me to say, right?

Oh, right, the big three predictive stats.

Here’s how they shake out if you look at all 18 games (regular and postseason) for both teams: Scoring differential, Rams +0.7; passer rating differential, Patriots +2.9; takeaway-giveaway differential, Rams +1. That’s about as even a match as you’re likely to see. It might favor the home team if there were a home team. But even then you’d be a fool to place a bet, and a bigger fool still to be willing to give as much as a point no matter what team you put your money on.

And here’s what you get when you isolate games involving the highest level of competition (which is to say games played against teams that qualified for the postseason — in the regular season and the playoffs combined): Scoring differential, Patriots +3.7; passer rating differential, Patriots +13.4; takeaway-giveaway differential, Patriots +1. In Foxborough, those numbers would point to a win for New England. In Los Angeles, they’d still give the Patriots a solid chance. On a neutral field and the big stage? I don’t know. Slight advantage for the AFC champs, I suppose. I still wouldn’t bet the farm on the basis of that data, though.

Here’s what I think matters in those numbers: As an examination of my nifty charts above makes clear, the difference has a lot to do with Jared Goff. The Rams have the same (excellent) running offense no matter who they’re up against. Their D takes a step back, but mostly to the extent that one would expect. The run D doesn’t get any more awful against good teams than it is in aggregate. And while the pass D struggles comparatively against the better teams, it’s not by more than a team with a fully functioning offense couldn’t or shouldn’t overcome.

Goff, on the other hand, is a different QB depending on who’s on the other side of the ball. Against poor, average, even pretty good teams, Goff’s play is typically lights out. When the competition truly heats up, Goff wilts.

But, you point out, Goff is in the Super Bowl. He’s won two straight games against postseason teams, including a huge one on the road against an outstanding Saints squad. (I’m not getting into the bad call here, partly because it’s been done to death, but mostly because that call may have cost the Saints a chance to seal a victory, but it didn’t hand the game to the Rams.)

Here are Goff’s aggregate numbers from those two games: 40 of 68 (58.8%) for 483 yards (7.1 yards per attempt), 1 touchdown and 1 interception, for a passer rating of 79.5. That’s not great. Neither is it wholly awful. (If he’d been awful, we wouldn’t be talking about Goff and the Rams right now.) But for a guy who in the regular season was a 64.9% passer, threw for 8.4 yards per attempt, and boasted a passer rating of 101.7, it’s more than a bit of step back.

The Rams’ aggregate running numbers in those two postseason games: 350 yards and 4 TDs on 74 carries. And, yes, the bulk of that production came against Dallas in the divisional round. But the better part of the Rams’ entire postseason offensive production came in that first game. And the Los Angeles defense played a critical role in the conference championship.

Goff was part of both of those postseason wins. But he wasn’t the driving force behind either of them.

With that in mind, what I expect the Patriots to do defensively is focus on stopping the run and challenge Goff to beat them.

That’s no simple task. The Rams have an outstanding rushing attack, led by Todd Gurley, who led the league with a jaw-dropping 6.3 yards per carry during the season, and who led the way in the victory over the Cowboys three weeks ago. Nonetheless, I believe it’s the task before the Patriots’ D. Whether they can accomplish it depends on whether they’re the unit that had its ups and downs in the regular season, or the one that allowed 60 yards and two touchdowns on 22 carries in two postseason games against teams with formidable ground games.

It will also, help, of course, if the Patriots can put up points of their own and force the Rams to try to keep up.

They should be able to pull that off.

The strength of the Rams D is their pass rush. Los Angeles has shown little ability to stop the run this season, particularly when facing teams that can run around the perimeter of the offensive line — teams like the Patriots. The Rams also struggle in coverage, a weakness that’s been particularly pronounced in games against postseason qualifiers.

I expect the Patriots to be able to take advantage of at least one of those flaws from the start, which should set them up to take advantage of both as the game wears on.

If New England’s offense can finish drives, it will help the defense put Goff in a position where he needs to carry the Los Angeles offense. And if Goff has to carry the offense, I think you can count on him to make a fatal mistake.

I won’t be surprised if this game comes down to the final possession. Super Bowls involving the Patriots pretty much always do. But neither will I be shocked if this one is effectively over by the middle of the third quarter. And, in fact, I’m more inclined to think we see the latter than the former.

Whatever the path might be, I expect the destination will be a 10-point Patriots’ victory.

This postseason is officially kicking my ass.

I fixed nothing in the divisional round. Just turned my poor performance around, going 2-2 straight up, 1-3 against the spread to even out my two-week disgrace at 3-5 (.375) all around.

Maybe I’ll get lucky and come out of this weekend dead even. Or, you know, maybe I’ll continue edging toward the Mendoza line.

Here’s what not to expect.

Oh, wait a second. I’ve charted some lovely stats for you to ignore first.

Now then. Down to business.

LA Rams (+3.5) at New Orleans
You may have noticed in your careful examination of the above that the Saints get better on both sides of the ball while the Rams get worse on both sides of the ball when the competition gets toughest. The same goes for the teams’ quarterbacks.

Here are how the big three predictive stats shape up if you look at all 17 games played by each team: Scoring differential, Rams +0.1 (which is to say, none); passer rating differential, Saints +4.0; takeaway-giveaway differential, Rams +2. That’s not much to go on, which is hardly surprising given that these two football teams have been outstanding all season long. It points to a narrow victory by one team or the other, in which case you kind of have to lean toward the home team, though you certainly wouldn’t expect the kind of double-digit margin of victory we saw the last time these teams faced off in New Orleans.

Isolate games against teams that qualified for the postseason, though, and the predictives look like this: Scoring differential, Saints +5.8; passer rating differential, Saints +23.4; takeaway giveaway differential, Saints +5. That’s a matchup in which the visitor has at best an outside chance to keep it close.

I could get into more stats, but they’re all right there for you above. I could explore the trends, but they point in the exact same direction as the stats.

The Rams are a fine football team. They’ll probably be a better football team still come September. But right now, I just don’t think they can keep up with the Saints for more than three quarters. Barring something unusual and unforeseeable, I think New Orleans comes out ahead by at least seven and probably more like 10

New England (+3) at Kansas City
Let’s do the same thing with the predictive stats here that we did with the NFC Championship game.

Looking at all 17 games for both teams: Scoring differential, Chiefs +1.2; passer rating differential, Chiefs +3.3; takeaway-giveaway differential, Patriots +3. Those numbers favor Kansas City, though they don’t exactly point to a lock.

Looking at performance vs. postseason qualifiers: Scoring differential, Patriots +3.2; passer rating differential, Patriots +11.4; takeaway-giveaway differential, Patriots +4. In Foxborough, those numbers would indicate a Patriots victory, though not a certain or a comfortable one. In Kansas City, they tell me the visitors have at least a pretty solid chance.

There’s nothing so definitive in either set of numbers to allow me to feel comfortable picking either way. So, shockingly, this ends up looking much the same following statistical examination as it did without it. Which brings us to — get ready for this gem of an insight — the team that executes better on the field is going to win the game.

I think if this turns into a shootout (like the meeting in Foxborough way back in week six did), you have to give the edge to the home team. Not because of some anticipated disparity in quarterback play — there’s unlikely to be any — but simply because those kinds of games always favor the home team.

If, on the other hand, the Patriots are able to get their running game going early the way they did last weekend, control the tempo of the game, control time of possession and keep the Chiefs offense off the field, then the New England defense has a solid shot of exhibiting just how good it became over the last half of the regular season.

I’ve got a feeling that’s what’s going to happen, which means I’ve got a good feeling that the Patriots are heading back to the Super Bowl for a third straight year. New England by four.

Well, the wild card round kicked my ass. Again.

I went 1-3 straight up, 2-2 against the spread last week. I’m placing the blame on my kicker.

I’m sure I’ll find a way to make even more of a mess of things this week.

We’ll get to the next round of ill-fated picks in a moment. First, let’s have a look at a couple of charts I pulled together that look at how the remaining teams’ quarterbacks and defenses fared this season when taking on the toughest competition.

Both charts compare performance vs. the entire field (the team’s full schedule or all of the QBs starts) with performance during the regular season and the wild card round against the other teams that qualified for the tournament. Some revealing data here, I think, regarding who steps up, who steps back, and who holds steady, when the going gets toughest. There’s always context to consider, of course. Like which opponents a team caught when — or how often. But I’m always in favor of a deeper dive into the numbers when I can manage it. (Oh, in neither case do the highlight colors mean anything. I’ve highlighted key columns, but the color differences are just about breaking things up visually.)

Absorbed all of that? Good. Now, like me, you have a much fuller appreciation of how little you know about what’s likely to take place on the field this weekend. Which is nice.

Here’s what not to expect.

Indianapolis (+5.5) at Kansas City
There is going to come a point in this postseason when the Chiefs are going to be undone by their abysmal defense. And I think this may well be that point. It’s hard to miss in the above that while neither quarterback in this game can be accused of playing his best against the stoutest competition (though neither exactly falls to pieces), the defenses go in completely opposite directions in the tough games. The Colts step up. The Chiefs, who aren’t a good defensive team under any circumstances, completely fall apart. The simple solution to that for Kansas City would be to get the running game firing early. But I’m not sure the Chiefs have a running game at this point. On the other hand, I know for a fact that the Colts do. And I kind of expect Indianapolis, rather than making this the shootout everyone’s expecting, to try to take advantage of Kansas City’s terrible run D, control time of possession, and keep Patrick Mahomes from getting the opportunity to take over the game. (You know, the way certain teams used to do the same against a famous Colts QB.) I can’t say I feel terribly confident about this pick, but I think the balanced Colts go into Kansas City and pull off the upset. Indianapolis by four.

Dallas (+7) at LA Rams
A good bit what I wrote about the Saturday afternoon game also applies to the prime time match. But here I actually feel better about predicting an upset. The Cowboys surely will endeavor to get Ezekiel Elliott involved early in order to take advantage of the Rams’ weak run defense. But I also think Dallas has a better chance of shutting down the Los Angeles passing attack than the Colts have of limiting the Chiefs through the air. I see a day of upsets continuing as the Cowboys pull off a three-point win.

LA Chargers (+4) at New England
Here’s what you get when you look at the big three predictive stats (factoring in all 17 of the Chargers’ games to date): Scoring differential, Patriots +0.5; passer rating differential, Chargers +1.2; takeaway-giveaway differential, Patriots +7. That’s most of a tossup with a slight advantage for the home team. (It would be more of an advantage if the visitors had a tendency to cough the ball up. They don’t. The Chargers’ +3 takeaway-giveaway line mostly reflects that they’re middle of the pack in both turnovers generated and turnovers committed.) Things start looking a little more favorable for the Patriots when you consider that the Chargers will be traveling for the third straight week, and traveling coast-to-coast for the second, and when you factor in the predicted frigid temperatures in Foxborough. The Chargers are not a team that typically plays well in the cold. But look at what happens with Philip Rivers and Tom Brady respectively in games against playoff opposition. Then do the same with the defenses. Those numbers paint a very positive picture for New England. I suspect the Chargers will find a way to keep this interesting (or maybe the Patriots will find a way to let the Chargers hang around). And I won’t be shocked by any means if Los Angeles comes away with a win. But what I expect is to see the Patriots put it away with a late score and ultimately come out ahead by seven.

Philadelphia (+8) at New Orleans
The Saints are probably the best team in the tournament. They’re certainly the best team in the NFC. The Eagles are — what are we calling them? Scrappy? Survivors? Eh, call them what you will. And once you’ve got their attention, wish them a good offseason. Saints by 14.

Well, I ended the regular season on a shockingly high note. And that’s got to point to a rough go of it with my wild card picks.

I somehow managed to get out of a typically odd week 17 with records of 12-4 picking straight up, and 10-6 against the spread.

That means I finish the regular season at 163-91-2 (.641) straight up, 124-122-10 (.504) with the points.

Not bad.

So bad comes next. Here’s what not to expect as the playoffs get underway.

Indianapolis (+1.5) at Houston
Each of the regular season matches between these division rivals this year went to the visitors. And while I think the Texans should be able to reverse that trend, I don’t think they’ll pull it off. Houston succeeds by stopping the run and rendering opposing offenses one dimensional. That puts the Colts at a rather odd sort of advantage here as Indy comes in with an offense that’s one dimensional to begin with. I expect an exciting game that goes down to the wire. And I expect to see Adam Vinatieri yet again put the winning points on the board in the closing seconds of a big game. Colts by two.

Seattle (+2) at Dallas
I don’t think I’d have much trouble picking this game if it were being played in Seattle. And not because the Seahawks beat the Cowboys handily there back in week three. That’s way too long ago to actually matter. It’s because the Seahawks are still the better team, with a balanced offense that should be able to adjust to the Cowboys D as the game wears on. Thing is, I’m not sure that’s going to be enough to carry the Seahawks in Dallas. I’m still taking Seattle, mainly because I just don’t see anything that would let me feel great about picking Dallas. But I’m expecting a nail-biter (or I would be if I actually cared about which team wins; I guess I’m really just expecting a close game). Seahawks by a field goal.

LA Chargers (+2.5) at Baltimore
Things didn’t go well for the Chargers when these teams met in Los Angeles just two weeks ago. I’m not sure a whole lot has changed since then. Baltimore by seven.

Philadelphia (+6) at Chicago
The Bears in this postseason are going only as far as the NFL’s best defense will carry them. Chicago has a quarterback who wilts when he faces tough competition.

That’s guaranteed to catch up with the team sooner or later, whether it’s here, next week in Los Angeles or two weeks from now in New Orleans. It won’t be in the Super Bowl, because the Bears aren’t getting past the Saints. I won’t be at all surprised if the Eagles pull off an upset here. But in the end, I think the Chicago D will be just a bit more than Philadelphia can handle. Bears win a low-scoring game by a point.

Uneven. My results in week 16 pretty much define uneven. Which is perfect, because it means I’ve got a negative to focus on, which is always nice.

I went 13-3 straight up last week, 6-9-1 against the spread. That gets me to 151-87-2 (.631) straight up, 114-116-10 (.496) against the spread with a week remaining in the season.

Let’s see what kind of awful note I can go out on.

Here’s what not to expect in week 17.

Dallas (+6) at NY Giants
Let’s get right into the messy side of week 17, shall we? Neither of these teams has anything to play for. And the Cowboys, who are locked in as the NFC four seed and almost guaranteed a visit from the Seahawks in the wild card round, have something important to rest up for. Dallas plays no more than a half of anything resembling actual football, and New Jersey comes out on top by eight.

Carolina (+7.5) at New Orleans
The Saints have clinched home field and have no incentive to play hard. The Panthers are eliminated and arguably are better off losing and improving their draft position than winning. This should look like a preseason game. Saints by four.

NY Jets (+13.5) at New England
Yes, please tell me all about how “impressive” the Jets have looked in their last two games (both home losses) and how they pose a threat to the Patriots. If I chuckle, it’s just because I’m thinking about a funny thing my wife said this morning. It’s totally not that I think you’re an idiot. Scoring differential, Patriots +4.9; passer rating differential, Patriots +13.6; takeaway-giveaway differential, Patriots +14. With the two seed and a first round bye as their reward for a game well played, the Patriots come out ahead by 17.

Detroit (+8) at Green Bay
Looks like they’re gonna go ahead and play this game. Because, well, you know, they sold all those tickets and everything. Packers by a touchdown.

Jacksonville (+7) at Houston
What specifically the Texans are playing for has at least something to do with what happens elsewhere. But at the very least, Houston has the AFC South title and the three seed at stake. That should be more than enough. Texans by nine.

Atlanta (+1) at Tampa Bay
I suspect the Falcons are less bad than the Buccaneers by enough to offset home field advantage. Atlanta by a field goal.

Miami (+3.5) at Buffalo
The Dolphins should win this game. But they’re not going to. What they’re going to do, soon enough, is get a new coach and start rebuilding. Bills by six.

Oakland (+13.5) at Kansas City
The Chiefs managed to hold the Raiders off in Oakland four weeks ago. It’s hard to imagine them not doing better than that in a home game that can prove the difference between a division championship, a bye, and home field throughout the playoffs, and a wild card berth. Kansas City by 14.

Philadelphia (-6.5) at Washington
The Eagles need a win and a Vikings loss to earn a trip to Chicago (probably) on wild card weekend. I’m sure Philadelphia will keep up its end of the bargain. Eagles by 10.

Cleveland (+6) at Baltimore
Well, you know, the Browns did manage to beat the Ravens in Cleveland back in early October. So there’s that. Baltimore by seven.

Cincinnati (+14.5) at Pittsburgh
Too little. Too late. Steelers by 12.

Chicago (+5) at Minnesota
If there were any chance of the Rams losing to the 49ers with a first-round bye on the line, the Bears might have a reason to try here. As it stands, Chicago’s best bet is to reveal as little as possible to the division rival it’s likely to face again next weekend. I expect the Bears to do just enough to stay in it until the out of town scoreboard tells them to take the rest of the afternoon off. Vikings by seven.

LA Chargers (+6.5) at Denver
Another game in which I expect the outcome will be colored by what happens (or, more to the point, what doesn’t happen) elsewhere. Once it becomes clear the Raiders aren’t pulling off a miracle in Kansas City, the Chargers will have no reason not to start pulling starters. That may give the Broncos a shot to manage a fake upset. At the very least, it will set Denver up to cover. Los Angeles by a field goal.

Arizona (+13.5) at Seattle
A win sends the Seahawks to Dallas next weekend. A loss and they may have to travel to Chicago. If you get to choose, you choose the Cowboys. (Not that the Seahawks could realistically even choose to lose this game.) Seattle by 17.

San Francisco (+10) at LA Rams
I know the Rams haven’t been playing their best football of late. But let’s be real. It’s the 49ers coming to town. And a win = a week off and at least one home game in the postseason. Los Angeles by 20.

Indianapolis (-3) at Tennessee
Great way to end the regular season. Winner gets a trip to Houston on wild card weekend (maybe more if the Jaguars pull off an upset in the afternoon). The loser gets to start planning for the draft. The Colts are the better team overall, and they’ve been playing better football lately. I think Indy advances. Colts by a point.